Iowa Hawkeyes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Final — October 24, 2026
IOWAOffense2026 regular season to dateMINN
IOWADefenseMINNIOWARecent formMINNIOWAHome and roadseason to dateMINNIOWALast 10 gamesMINNRest & travelrest and travel
IOWARest & travelMINNAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Iowa (4-1) visited Minnesota (3-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
Iowa has the 51st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 58th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Minnesota has the 106th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When Iowa has the ball, a 51st-ranked offense (+0.125 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.085 allowed); when Minnesota has it, a 106th-ranked offense (−0.047) meets a 58th-ranked defense (+0.043 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Iowa offense is at 44.7% (90th) and the Minnesota offense at 42.0% (118th). Iowa scores 26.2 points per game (67th) and allows 17.4 (20th); Minnesota scores 22.8 (91st) and allows 24.8 (61st).
Iowa is 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 41-24 win over Washington. Minnesota is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 41-13 loss to Purdue.
Iowa closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Minnesota getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 40.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Iowa -300, Minnesota +242) prices Iowa at 72% and Minnesota at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Iowa Hawkeyes 10, Minnesota Golden Gophers 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5): Minnesota Golden Gophers covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 40.5: Under.
- Minnesota Golden Gophers closed at +242 on the moneyline (a 28% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Iowa Hawkeyes 72%, Minnesota Golden Gophers 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 5:00 — Iowa Hawkeyes ball, 2nd & 7 at IOWA 5Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA15, for 57 yards to the MINN38 (#19 J.Gerlach), 1ST DOWNIowa Hawkeyes 17% → 31% (+14 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:46 — Iowa Hawkeyes ball, 2nd & 9 at MINN 37Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete deep middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at MINN12, for 37 yards to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:46, 1ST DOWN kick attempt good (…Iowa Hawkeyes 26% → 50% (+25 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:39 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 3rd & 4 at MINN 33No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at IOWA50, for 39 yards to the IOWA28 (#18 X.Styles), 1ST DOWNMinnesota Golden Gophers 53% → 79% (+26 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:16 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 3rd & 3 at IOWA 21Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush right for 0 yards to the IOWA21 (#3 J.Watson) PENALTY MINN Holding (#87 K.Helms) 10 yards from IOWA21 to IOWA31. NO PLAYIowa Hawkeyes 16% → 32% (+16 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 4th & 11 at IOWA 29Luke Drzewiecki 46 Yd Field GoalMinnesota Golden Gophers 65% → 100% (+35 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
Minnesota Golden Gophers won after falling as low as 26% (Q2 0:19).
Game DNA
| Iowa | Points added | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 | Passingdropbacks | -4.5 |
| -7.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -11.8 |
| +5.8 | Explosive plays2 plays · 3 plays | +5.8 |
| -11.9 | Turnovers4 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.3 |
| -6.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.6 |
| -1.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.3 |
| -2.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 1 of 2 | -1.1 |
| -30.9 | All plays | -22.7 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 7.7 points to Minnesota Golden Gophers. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Iowa Hawkeyes closed as the market favourite at 72% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Iowa -7.5 (-107)
Iowa -7.5 (-110)
Minnesota +240 28%
Minnesota +242 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts40
- Completion %65.0%
- Passing yards345
- Yards per attempt8.6
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards51938th
- Season line76 carries, 519 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards329137th
- Season line28 catches, 329 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5249th
- Attempts196
- Completion %64.8%79th
- Passing yards1,335108th
- Yards per attempt6.8171st
- TD–INT9–5
- Rushing yards317150th
- Season line51 carries, 317 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards37588th
- Season line32 catches, 375 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles45126th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIowa offense vs Minnesota defense | 41.0%96th | 38.0%12th |
| Early-down success rateMinnesota offense vs Iowa defense | 49.5%132nd | 38.8%120th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIowa offense vs Minnesota defense | 42.6%50th | 33.3%21st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMinnesota offense vs Iowa defense | 36.7%43rd | 32.8%111th |
| Explosive play rateIowa offense vs Minnesota defense | 5.8%99th | 7.1%82nd |
| Explosive play rateMinnesota offense vs Iowa defense | 5.9%40th | 6.5%78th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.6%29th-highest | 59.9%9th-highest |
On 3rd down Iowa converts 42.6% (50th) against a Minnesota defense allowing 33.3% (21st).
On 3rd down Minnesota converts 32.8% (111th) against a Iowa defense allowing 36.7% (43rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Iowa | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kirk Ferentz | P. J. Fleck |
| Tenureat this school | 28th season | 10th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 218–129 | 70–46 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 218–129 | 100–68 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tim Lester | Greg Harbaugh Jr. / Matt Simon |
| Defensive coordinator | Phil Parker | Danny Collins |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Iowa won 4 and Minnesota 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Minnesota 3, Iowa 41 Iowa won | ||
| Sep 21, 2024 | Iowa 31, Minnesota 14 Iowa won | ||
| Oct 21, 2023 | Minnesota 12, Iowa 10 Minnesota won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | Iowa 13, Minnesota 10 Iowa won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Minnesota 22, Iowa 27 Iowa won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Iowa Hawkeyes
- Iowa Hawkeyes team stats
- Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes (Oct 31)
- Iowa Hawkeyes 41, Washington Huskies 24 (Oct 9)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 31, Iowa Hawkeyes 14 (Oct 3)
Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Minnesota Golden Gophers team stats
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers (Oct 31)
- Minnesota Golden Gophers 13, Purdue Boilermakers 41 (Oct 10)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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