Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines Final — October 24, 2026
IUOffense2026 regular season to dateMICH
IUDefenseMICHIURecent formMICHIUHome and roadseason to dateMICHIULast 10 gamesMICHRest & travelrest and travel
IURest & travelMICHAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Indiana (5-1) visited Michigan (4-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
Indiana has the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 59th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Michigan has the 63rd-ranked offense and the 5th-ranked defense. When Indiana has the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.340 EPA per play) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.151 allowed); when Michigan has it, a 63rd-ranked offense (+0.075) meets a 59th-ranked defense (+0.043 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Indiana offense is at 52.4% (14th) and the Michigan offense at 50.0% (31st). Indiana scores 33.5 points per game (27th) and allows 15.0 (8th); Michigan scores 22.7 (92nd) and allows 16.2 (12th).
Indiana is 6-1 and 1-6 against the spread; its last game was a 19-15 loss to Ohio State. Michigan is 4-2 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 21-18 win over Penn State.
Indiana closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Michigan getting the points at home. The spread opened at Indiana -8.5. The total closed 43.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Indiana -305, Michigan +244) prices Indiana at 72% and Michigan at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6
Indiana Hoosiers won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Michigan Wolverines +7.5): Michigan Wolverines covered.
- Combined score 19 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Indiana Hoosiers closed at -305 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Michigan Wolverines.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Indiana Hoosiers 72%, Michigan Wolverines 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 4:09 — Michigan Wolverines ball, 3rd & 10 at IU 48No Huddle-Shotgun #14 T.Carr pass complete short left to #9 C.Goodwin caught at IU 30, for 24 yards to the IU 24 (#4 A.Harris), 1ST DOWNMichigan Wolverines 33% → 53% (+21 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:25 — Michigan Wolverines ball, 3rd & 3 at IU 3No Huddle-Shotgun #14 T.Carr sacked for loss of 5 yards to the IU 08 (#5 R.Hardy)Indiana Hoosiers 31% → 65% (+35 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Michigan Wolverines ball, 4th & 8 at IU 8Trey Butkowski 26 Yd Field GoalMichigan Wolverines 35% → 70% (+36 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Michigan Wolverines ball, 4th & 9 at IU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 4 yards loss to the IU 29 (#13 Q.Sanks; #46 I.Jones)Indiana Hoosiers 79% → 100% (+21 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Indiana Hoosiers ball, 1st & 4 at MICH 25Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #88 B.Schott caught at U-M06, for 21 yards to the U-M04 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNIndiana Hoosiers 68% → 87% (+19 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Indiana Hoosiers won after falling as low as 30% (Q4 1:10).
Game DNA
| Indiana | Points added | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 | Passingdropbacks | -5.5 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.2 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 1 plays | +1.0 |
| -5.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.4 |
| -5.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.1 |
| -1.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.0 |
| -3.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 0 of 4 | -3.6 |
| -23.0 | All plays | -23.8 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 6.8 points to Indiana Hoosiers. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Indiana Hoosiers closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
The line moved toward Michigan Wolverines before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Indiana -8.5 (-110)
Indiana -7.5 (-105)
Michigan +270 26%
Michigan +244 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts169
- Completion %63.9%91st
- Passing yards1,66050th
- Yards per attempt9.810th
- TD–INT18–0
- Rushing yards64317th
- Season line87 carries, 643 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards6947th
- Season line39 catches, 694 yds, 8 TD
- Tackles5249th
- Attempts124
- Completion %58.1%182nd
- Passing yards924197th
- Yards per attempt7.5122nd
- TD–INT5–6
- Rushing yards293172nd
- Season line69 carries, 293 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards48240th
- Season line27 catches, 482 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5070th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIndiana offense vs Michigan defense | 46.8%24th | 39.0%17th |
| Early-down success rateMichigan offense vs Indiana defense | 41.5%39th | 47.1%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIndiana offense vs Michigan defense | 45.3%33rd | 35.1%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan offense vs Indiana defense | 42.1%90th | 40.3%70th |
| Explosive play rateIndiana offense vs Michigan defense | 10.6%2nd | 4.8%14th |
| Explosive play rateMichigan offense vs Indiana defense | 6.1%43rd | 5.2%116th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.8%88th-highest | 42.9%119th-highest |
On 3rd down Indiana converts 45.3% (33rd) against a Michigan defense allowing 35.1% (30th).
On 3rd down Michigan converts 40.3% (70th) against a Indiana defense allowing 42.1% (90th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Curt Cignetti | Kyle Whittingham |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 33–3 | 4–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 52–7 | 181–90 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Shanahan | Jason Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | Bryant Haines | Jay Hill |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Indiana won 1 and Michigan 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | Michigan 15, Indiana 20 Indiana won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Indiana 7, Michigan 52 Michigan won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Michigan 31, Indiana 10 Michigan won | ||
| Nov 6, 2021 | Indiana 7, Michigan 29 Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Indiana Hoosiers
- Indiana Hoosiers team stats
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers (Oct 31)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 47, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 15 (Oct 3)
Michigan Wolverines
- Michigan Wolverines team stats
- Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Oct 31)
- Penn State Nittany Lions 18, Michigan Wolverines 21 (Oct 17)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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