Nevada Wolf Pack vs UTEP Miners Final — October 10, 2026
NEVOffense2026 regular season to dateUTEP
NEVDefenseUTEPNEVRecent formUTEPNEVHome and roadseason to dateUTEPNEVLast 10 gamesUTEPRest & travelrest and travel
NEVRest & travelUTEPAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Nevada (1-2) visited UTEP (0-4) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:00 PM ET.
Nevada has the 74th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 83rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UTEP has the 127th-ranked offense and the 134th-ranked defense. When Nevada has the ball, a 74th-ranked offense (+0.046 EPA per play) meets a 134th-ranked defense (+0.327 allowed); when UTEP has it, a 127th-ranked offense (−0.171) meets a 83rd-ranked defense (+0.103 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Nevada offense is at 41.1% (120th) and the UTEP offense at 40.6% (123rd). Nevada scores 34.0 points per game (27th) and allows 25.7 (66th); UTEP scores 7.8 (138th) and allows 49.2 (138th).
Nevada is 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 36-33 loss to Air Force. UTEP is 1-4 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 61-7 loss to New Mexico.
Nevada closed as a 10.5-point road favorite, with UTEP getting the points at home. The spread opened at Nevada -10. The total closed at 48.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Nevada -400, UTEP +300) prices Nevada at 76% and UTEP at 24%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Nevada Wolf Pack 30, UTEP Miners 13
Nevada Wolf Pack won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (UTEP Miners +10.5): Nevada Wolf Pack covered.
- Combined score 43 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
- Nevada Wolf Pack closed at -400 on the moneyline (a 76% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Nevada Wolf Pack 76%, UTEP Miners 24%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 3:29 — UTEP Miners ball, 3rd & 13 at NEV 16Shotgun #12 R.Moore III pass complete short left to #3 J.Smith caught at Nevada03, for 16 yards to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:29, 1ST DOWN #91 C.Arreola ki…UTEP Miners 11% → 17% (+7 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:41 — Nevada Wolf Pack ball, 2nd & 9 at NEV 26No Huddle-Shotgun #1 H.Turner rush right for 49 yards gain to the UTEP25 (#23 K.Miles; #7 K.Lowe), 1ST DOWNNevada Wolf Pack 82% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:42 — Nevada Wolf Pack ball, 2nd & 24 at NEV 28No Huddle-Shotgun #1 H.Turner rush left for 72 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:42, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #95 E.Baulch, LS: #…Nevada Wolf Pack 90% → 97% (+7 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Nevada | Points added | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 | Passingdropbacks | -15.8 |
| -14.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.5 |
| +11.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +9.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +4.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.1 |
| -0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -5.0 |
| +2.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 2 of 2 | +5.4 |
| +6.2 | All plays | -10.7 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 18.3 points to Nevada Wolf Pack. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Nevada Wolf Pack closed as the market favourite at 76% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Nevada -10 (-110)
Nevada -10.5 (-106)
UTEP +295 24%
UTEP +300 24%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts70
- Completion %60.0%156th
- Passing yards572228th
- Yards per attempt8.277th
- TD–INT2–2
- Rushing yards34159th
- Season line54 carries, 341 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards164300th
- Season line7 catches, 164 yds
- Tackles551st
- Attempts77
- Completion %63.6%101st
- Passing yards541237th
- Yards per attempt7.0150th
- TD–INT7–3
- Rushing yards29490th
- Season line33 carries, 294 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards168286th
- Season line13 catches, 168 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles28224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Nevada | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNevada offense vs UTEP defense | 37.6%123rd | 47.9%115th |
| Early-down success rateUTEP offense vs Nevada defense | 41.3%45th | 39.4%111th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNevada offense vs UTEP defense | 45.5%38th | 64.3%137th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUTEP offense vs Nevada defense | 31.8%18th | 22.6%133rd |
| Explosive play rateNevada offense vs UTEP defense | 9.9%10th | 8.1%103rd |
| Explosive play rateUTEP offense vs Nevada defense | 5.3%28th | 4.4%122nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.3%98th-highest | 43.0%116th-highest |
On 3rd down Nevada converts 45.5% (38th) against a UTEP defense allowing 64.3% (137th).
On 3rd down UTEP converts 22.6% (133rd) against a Nevada defense allowing 31.8% (18th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Nevada | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Choate | Scotty Walden |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–22 | 6–23 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–22 | 7–26 |
| Offensive coordinator | Bret Bartalone | Joe Pappalardo / Lanear Sampson |
| Defensive coordinator | Kane Ioane | Kyle Beyer / Kelvin Sigler |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Nevada Wolf Pack
- Nevada Wolf Pack team stats
- Nevada Wolf Pack at UCLA Bruins (Oct 31)
- San Jose State Spartans 13, Nevada Wolf Pack 28 (Oct 24)
- Nevada Wolf Pack 17, North Dakota State Bison 31 (Oct 17)
- Air Force Falcons 36, Nevada Wolf Pack 33 (Sep 26)
UTEP Miners
- UTEP Miners team stats
- UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison (Oct 31)
- San Jose State Spartans 24, UTEP Miners 11 (Oct 17)
- UTEP Miners 7, New Mexico Lobos 61 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results