California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Final — October 24, 2026
CALOffense2026 regular season to dateSMU
CALDefenseSMUCALRecent formSMUCALHome and roadseason to dateSMUCALLast 10 gamesSMURest & travelrest and travel
CALRest & travelSMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
California (2-4) visited SMU (4-1) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
California has the 120th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 76th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, SMU has the 59th-ranked offense and the 61st-ranked defense. When California has the ball, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.082 EPA per play) meets a 61st-ranked defense (+0.052 allowed); when SMU has it, a 59th-ranked offense (+0.086) meets a 76th-ranked defense (+0.091 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the California offense is at 41.7% (122nd) and the SMU offense at 47.5% (62nd). California scores 19.7 points per game (110th) and allows 31.2 (107th); SMU scores 28.0 (55th) and allows 23.6 (48th).
California is 3-4 and 2-5 against the spread; its last game was a 41-7 loss to Wake Forest. SMU is 5-1 and 1-3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 23-13 win over Virginia.
SMU closed as a 18.5-point favorite at home against California. The spread opened at SMU -17.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (California +700, SMU -1224) prices California at 12% and SMU at 88%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59
SMU Mustangs won by 39.
- Against the closing spread (SMU Mustangs -18.5): SMU Mustangs covered.
- Combined score 79 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- SMU Mustangs closed at -1224 on the moneyline (a 88% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward SMU Mustangs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (California Golden Bears 12%, SMU Mustangs 88%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 4:54 — SMU Mustangs ball, 3rd & 14 at CAL 48No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #3 Y.Smith caught at CAL43, for 7 yards to the CAL41 (#13 J.Young)California Golden Bears 10% → 20% (+10 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:48 — California Golden Bears ball, 2nd & 17 at CAL 35No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Sagapolutele pass complete short right to #22 T.Purcell caught at CAL45, for 26 yards to the SMU39 (#22 S.Reyes), 1ST DOWNCalifornia Golden Bears 26% → 33% (+8 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:25 — SMU Mustangs ball, 1st & 10 at CAL 28No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep right to #18 T.Melin Öhrström caught at CAL03, for 27 yards to the CAL01 (#2 K.Lopa), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CAL Fa…SMU Mustangs 73% → 79% (+6 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:57 — SMU Mustangs ball, 4th & 1 at CAL 1Shotgun #6 K.Raphael rush left for 1 yard gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57 #97 B.Baird kick attempt good (H: #96 W.Olson, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)California Golden Bears 12% → 20% (+8 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:50 — California Golden Bears ball, 3rd & 6 at CAL 49No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Sagapolutele pass complete short right to #7 C.Hendricks caught at SMU39, for 28 yards to the SMU23 (#21 J.Wyrick), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNCalifornia Golden Bears 20% → 27% (+7 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| California | Points added | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 | Passingdropbacks | +4.5 |
| -5.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +10.6 |
| +9.7 | Explosive plays4 plays · 5 plays | +15.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.4 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.4 |
| +3.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 6 of 7 | +9.0 |
| -6.6 | All plays | +40.3 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 16.4 points to SMU Mustangs. The final margin was 39.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
SMU Mustangs closed as the market favourite at 88% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
California +17.5 (-115)
California +18.5 (-110)
SMU -1030 87%
SMU -1224 88%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts182
- Completion %67.0%47th
- Passing yards1,290118th
- Yards per attempt7.1143rd
- TD–INT9–5
- Rushing yards336129th
- Season line73 carries, 336 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards41569th
- Season line47 catches, 415 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles40191st
- Attempts192
- Completion %72.9%6th
- Passing yards1,85920th
- Yards per attempt9.711th
- TD–INT16–5
- Rushing yards54233rd
- Season line99 carries, 542 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards41867th
- Season line35 catches, 418 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles35292nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs SMU defense | 40.1%106th | 42.6%59th |
| Early-down success rateSMU offense vs California defense | 39.8%26th | 43.0%72nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs SMU defense | 37.1%93rd | 30.3%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSMU offense vs California defense | 44.0%99th | 46.3%32nd |
| Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs SMU defense | 5.8%98th | 5.9%41st |
| Explosive play rateSMU offense vs California defense | 11.6%137th | 8.8%18th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 62.2%5th-highest | 51.3%67th-highest |
On 3rd down California converts 37.1% (93rd) against a SMU defense allowing 30.3% (8th).
On 3rd down SMU converts 46.3% (32nd) against a California defense allowing 44.0% (99th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tosh Lupoi | Rhett Lashlee |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–4 | 43–18 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–4 | 43–18 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jordan Somerville | Garin Justice / D'Eriq King / Rob Likens |
| Defensive coordinator | Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings | Maurice Crum Jr. / Rickey Hunley Jr. |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: California won 1 and SMU 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | SMU 35, California 38 California won | ||
| Nov 30, 2024 | California 6, SMU 38 SMU won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
California Golden Bears
- California Golden Bears team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 41, California Golden Bears 7 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
- California Golden Bears 31, UNLV Rebels 39 (Oct 3)
SMU Mustangs
- SMU Mustangs team stats
- SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange (Oct 31)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Missouri State Bears 24, SMU Mustangs 34 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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