Virginia Tech Hokies vs California Golden Bears Final — October 10, 2026
VTOffense2026 regular season to dateCAL
VTDefenseCALVTRecent formCALVTHome and roadseason to dateCALVTLast 10 gamesCALRest & travelrest and travel
VTRest & travelCALAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Virginia Tech (3-1) visited California (1-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Virginia Tech has the 44th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 28th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, California has the 120th-ranked offense and the 68th-ranked defense. When Virginia Tech has the ball, a 44th-ranked offense (+0.133 EPA per play) meets a 68th-ranked defense (+0.058 allowed); when California has it, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.119) meets a 28th-ranked defense (−0.065 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Virginia Tech offense is at 50.4% (32nd) and the California offense at 41.4% (118th). Virginia Tech scores 33.2 points per game (31st) and allows 24.0 (55th); California scores 21.5 (91st) and allows 31.5 (103rd).
Virginia Tech is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 35-33 loss to Pittsburgh. California is 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 39-31 loss to UNLV.
Virginia Tech closed as a 10-point road favorite, with California getting the points at home. The spread opened at Virginia Tech -12.5. The total closed at 53.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Virginia Tech -395, California +300) prices Virginia Tech at 76% and California at 24%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25
California Golden Bears won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (California Golden Bears +10): California Golden Bears covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 53.5: Under.
- California Golden Bears closed at +300 on the moneyline (a 24% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward California Golden Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Virginia Tech Hokies 76%, California Golden Bears 24%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 12:41 — Virginia Tech Hokies ball, 1st & 10 at CAL 30Ayden Greene 30 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (John Love Kick)Virginia Tech Hokies 83% → 99% (+16 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:54 — California Golden Bears ball, 2nd & 3 at VT 5Ashten Emory 5 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)California Golden Bears 5% → 24% (+19 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:23 — California Golden Bears ball, 1st & 10 at VT 33No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brousseau pass complete deep left to #9 I.Strong caught at VT 12, for 31 yards to the VT 02 (#0 Q.Reddish), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENA…California Golden Bears 62% → 92% (+30 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:06 — Virginia Tech Hokies ball, 1st & 7 at CAL 27Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #5 M.Jackson caught at CAL16, for 20 yards to the CAL07, out of bounds at CAL07, 1ST DOWNCalifornia Golden Bears 59% → 100% (+41 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:06 — Virginia Tech Hokies ball, 1st & 10 at CAL 27Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #5 M.Jackson caught at CAL16, for 20 yards to the CAL07, out of bounds at CAL07, 1ST DOWNVirginia Tech Hokies 20% → 41% (+21 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
California Golden Bears won after falling as low as 1% (Q2 11:05).
Game DNA
| Virginia Tech | Points added | California |
|---|---|---|
| -11.6 | Passingdropbacks | -3.3 |
| -9.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.6 |
| +17.6 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +6.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -2.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.6 |
| +10.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.6 |
| +3.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 5 | +9.0 |
| +7.3 | All plays | +5.3 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.3 points to Virginia Tech Hokies. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Virginia Tech Hokies closed as the market favourite at 76% and lost.
The line moved toward California Golden Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Virginia Tech -12.5 (-110)
Virginia Tech -10 (-108)
California +387 20%
California +300 24%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts177
- Completion %74.0%7th
- Passing yards1,44622nd
- Yards per attempt8.277th
- TD–INT11–2
- Rushing yards45523rd
- Season line77 carries, 455 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards37334th
- Season line37 catches, 373 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles23375th
- Attempts164
- Completion %65.2%82nd
- Passing yards1,18074th
- Yards per attempt7.2138th
- TD–INT8–5
- Rushing yards33661st
- Season line73 carries, 336 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards29985th
- Season line23 catches, 299 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles27245th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Virginia Tech | California |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVirginia Tech offense vs California defense | 43.8%62nd | 40.1%29th |
| Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia Tech defense | 38.2%18th | 41.4%91st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVirginia Tech offense vs California defense | 45.5%38th | 43.1%96th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia Tech defense | 32.6%22nd | 35.9%93rd |
| Explosive play rateVirginia Tech offense vs California defense | 6.3%88th | 9.7%129th |
| Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia Tech defense | 7.0%81st | 6.3%85th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.0%33rd-highest | 62.3%7th-highest |
On 3rd down Virginia Tech converts 45.5% (38th) against a California defense allowing 43.1% (96th).
On 3rd down California converts 35.9% (93rd) against a Virginia Tech defense allowing 32.6% (22nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Virginia Tech | California |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | James Franklin | Tosh Lupoi |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 132–61 | 2–3 |
| Offensive coordinator | Ty Howle | Jordan Somerville |
| Defensive coordinator | Brent Pry | Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Virginia Tech won 1 and California 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | California 34, Virginia Tech 42 Virginia Tech won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Virginia Tech Hokies
- Virginia Tech Hokies team stats
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, Clemson Tigers 16 (Oct 24)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 24, Virginia Tech Hokies 34 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 35, Virginia Tech Hokies 33 (Oct 2)
California Golden Bears
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results