Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Final — October 3, 2026
ALAOffense2026 regular season to dateMSST
ALADefenseMSSTALARecent formMSSTALALast 10 gamesMSSTRest & travelrest and travel
ALARest & travelMSSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Alabama (4-0) visited Mississippi State (4-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET.
Alabama has the 6th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has the 17th-ranked offense and the 53rd-ranked defense. When Alabama has the ball, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.389 EPA per play) meets a 53rd-ranked defense (−0.038 allowed); when Mississippi State has it, a 17th-ranked offense (+0.242) meets a 21st-ranked defense (−0.155 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Alabama offense is at 51.5% (10th) and the Mississippi State offense at 50.2% (11th). Alabama scores 48.0 points per game (3rd) and allows 20.2 (37th); Mississippi State scores 43.0 (8th) and allows 21.0 (40th).
Alabama is 4-0 and 3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 49-18 win over South Carolina. Mississippi State is 4-0 and 4-0 against the spread; its last game was a 31-24 win over Missouri.
Alabama closed as a 5.5-point road favorite, with Mississippi State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Alabama -4.5. The total closed at 62.5, up from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Alabama -220, Mississippi State +180) prices Alabama at 66% and Mississippi State at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23
Alabama Crimson Tide won by 33.
- Against the closing spread (Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5): Alabama Crimson Tide covered.
- Combined score 79 vs the closing total of 62.5: Over.
- Alabama Crimson Tide closed at -220 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Alabama Crimson Tide.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Alabama Crimson Tide 66%, Mississippi State Bulldogs 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:20 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 1st & 10 at ALA 43No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor sacked for loss of 9 yards to the State48 (#90 L.Simmons), fumble by #1 K.Taylor recovered by Bama #90 L.Simmons at State48, End Of…Alabama Crimson Tide 61% → 73% (+12 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:30 — Mississippi State Bulldogs ball, 3rd & 5 at MSST 30No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass intercepted by #5 D.Lee Jr. at State30 #5 D.Lee Jr. return 30 yards to the State00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30 #31 C.Talty kick att…Alabama Crimson Tide 82% → 90% (+8 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:43 — Alabama Crimson Tide ball, 3rd & 19 at ALA 31Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep right to #3 L.Brooks caught at State30, for 39 yards to the State30 (#28 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNAlabama Crimson Tide 81% → 88% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:53 — Alabama Crimson Tide ball, 3rd & 6 at ALA 16Shotgun #12 K.Russell pass complete deep left to #3 L.Brooks caught at State34, for 50 yards to the State34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNAlabama Crimson Tide 82% → 88% (+6 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Alabama Crimson Tide would win >99% of the time (Mississippi State Bulldogs <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Alabama Crimson Tide. Here is where that came from.
| Alabama | Points added | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Passingdropbacks | -1.5 |
| -0.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -11.4 |
| +18.5 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +12.2 |
| -2.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -8.4 |
| -1.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.4 |
| -1.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.0 |
| +11.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 6 of 7 · 2 of 3 | +4.2 |
| +20.8 | All plays | -2.5 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 10.8 points to Alabama Crimson Tide. The final margin was 33.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Alabama Crimson Tide closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward Alabama Crimson Tide before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Alabama -4.5 (-105)
Alabama -5.5 (-113)
Mississippi State +150 38%
Mississippi State +180 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts110
- Completion %70.9%26th
- Passing yards1,12940th
- Yards per attempt10.313th
- TD–INT8–2
- Rushing yards225110th
- Season line46 carries, 225 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards33331st
- Season line17 catches, 333 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3066th
- Attempts120
- Completion %69.2%40th
- Passing yards1,19229th
- Yards per attempt9.918th
- TD–INT14–2
- Rushing yards40214th
- Season line73 carries, 402 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards40811th
- Season line28 catches, 408 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles28100th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAlabama offense vs Mississippi State defense | 47.2%10th | 36.5%32nd |
| Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs Alabama defense | 40.0%75th | 44.4%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAlabama offense vs Mississippi State defense | 37.8%82nd | 35.2%41st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs Alabama defense | 29.3%10th | 52.5%11th |
| Explosive play rateAlabama offense vs Mississippi State defense | 10.1%10th | 5.8%38th |
| Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs Alabama defense | 10.1%126th | 10.0%13th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 47.0%87th-highest | 51.2%63rd-highest |
On 3rd down Alabama converts 37.8% (82nd) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 35.2% (41st).
On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 52.5% (11th) against a Alabama defense allowing 29.3% (10th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kalen DeBoer | Jeff Lebby |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 24–8 | 11–18 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 61–17 | 11–18 |
| Offensive coordinator | Ryan Grubb | Jeff Lebby |
| Defensive coordinator | Maurice Linguist / Kane Wommack | Zach Arnett / Matt Brock |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Alabama won 3 and Mississippi State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2023 | Alabama 40, Mississippi State 17 Alabama won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Mississippi State 6, Alabama 30 Alabama won | ||
| Oct 16, 2021 | Alabama 49, Mississippi State 9 Alabama won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Alabama Crimson Tide
- Alabama Crimson Tide team stats
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 10, Tennessee Volunteers 26 (Oct 17)
- Georgia Bulldogs 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 17 (Oct 10)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Oklahoma Sooners 23, Mississippi State Bulldogs 15 (Oct 24)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 31 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
- Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24 (Oct 3)
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