Ohio Bobcats vs Kent State Golden Flashes Final — October 3, 2026
OHIOOffense2026 regular season to dateKENT
OHIODefenseKENTOHIOLast 10 gamesKENTRest & travelrest and travel
OHIORest & travelKENTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ohio (1-2) visited Kent State (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Ohio has the 50th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 125th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Kent State has the 91st-ranked offense and the 131st-ranked defense. When Ohio has the ball, a 50th-ranked offense (+0.070 EPA per play) meets a 131st-ranked defense (+0.299 allowed); when Kent State has it, a 91st-ranked offense (−0.059) meets a 125th-ranked defense (+0.258 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ohio offense is at 43.3% (68th) and the Kent State offense at 37.8% (121st). Ohio scores 28.7 points per game (56th) and allows 39.0 (125th); Kent State scores 9.7 (135th) and allows 43.0 (132nd).
Ohio closed as a 3.5-point road favorite, with Kent State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Ohio -5.5. The total closed at 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ohio -175, Kent State +140) prices Ohio at 60% and Kent State at 40%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ohio Bobcats 13, Kent State Golden Flashes 10
Ohio Bobcats won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Kent State Golden Flashes +3.5): Kent State Golden Flashes covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Ohio Bobcats closed at -175 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Kent State Golden Flashes.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ohio Bobcats 60%, Kent State Golden Flashes 40%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 6:06 — Ohio Bobcats ball, 1st & 15 at OHIO 49No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short middle to #15 R.Neer caught at KSU40, for 13 yards to the KSU38, out of bounds at KSU38Kent State Golden Flashes 19% → 41% (+22 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:30 — Ohio Bobcats ball, 4th & 1 at KENT 39No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU39 (#2 J.Cordoba), TURNOVER ON DOWNSKent State Golden Flashes 14% → 36% (+22 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:52 — Kent State Golden Flashes ball, 4th & 5 at KENT 44No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass incomplete deep right to #6 W.Harris thrown to Ohio26 PENALTY Ohio Pass Interference (#21 R.Jackson, Jr.) 15 yards from KS…Kent State Golden Flashes 20% → 43% (+22 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:02 — Kent State Golden Flashes ball, 1st & 10 at OHIO 39No Huddle-Shotgun #22 B.White rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Ohio16 (#27 J.Fries)Kent State Golden Flashes 41% → 60% (+18 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:10 — Kent State Golden Flashes ball, 4th & 2 at OHIO 15#96 S.Leonard field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 K.Ford, LS: #41 G.Goodell), clock 00:10Ohio Bobcats 61% → 85% (+24 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Ohio Bobcats would win 57% of the time (Kent State Golden Flashes 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Ohio | Points added | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8 | Passingdropbacks | -0.8 |
| -4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +1.7 |
| +4.0 | Explosive plays1 plays · 1 plays | +3.5 |
| -10.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -3.9 |
| -0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -11.8 |
| +2.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.5 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 1 of 3 | -0.2 |
| -9.9 | All plays | -12.9 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.1 points to Ohio Bobcats. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ohio Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward Kent State Golden Flashes before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ohio -5.5 (-109)
Ohio -3.5 (-109)
Kent State +171 35%
Kent State +140 40%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts49
- Completion %73.5%
- Passing yards400
- Yards per attempt8.2
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards189158th
- Season line46 carries, 189 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards31634th
- Season line21 catches, 316 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3618th
- Attempts85
- Completion %58.8%164th
- Passing yards535209th
- Yards per attempt6.3188th
- TD–INT3–3
- Rushing yards183172nd
- Season line28 carries, 183 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards178195th
- Season line13 catches, 178 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles21281st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ohio | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOhio offense vs Kent State defense | 34.8%121st | 42.0%99th |
| Early-down success rateKent State offense vs Ohio defense | 36.0%23rd | 27.8%135th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOhio offense vs Kent State defense | 53.7%9th | 42.9%91st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKent State offense vs Ohio defense | 57.8%134th | 34.4%99th |
| Explosive play rateOhio offense vs Kent State defense | 3.8%127th | 9.4%121st |
| Explosive play rateKent State offense vs Ohio defense | 8.0%100th | 6.3%85th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.2%74th-highest | 46.8%89th-highest |
On 3rd down Ohio converts 53.7% (9th) against a Kent State defense allowing 42.9% (91st).
On 3rd down Kent State converts 34.4% (99th) against a Ohio defense allowing 57.8% (134th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ohio | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | John Hauser | Mark Carney |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–2 | 7–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–2 | 7–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Scott Isophording | Clay Patterson |
| Defensive coordinator | Kurt Mattix | Cherokee Valeria |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Ohio won 2 and Kent State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | Ohio 41, Kent State 0 Ohio won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | Kent State 17, Ohio 42 Ohio won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Ohio 24, Kent State 31 Kent State won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | Kent State 34, Ohio 27 Kent State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Ohio Bobcats
- Ohio Bobcats team stats
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 20, Ohio Bobcats 24 (Oct 24)
- Ohio Bobcats 48, Sacramento State Hornets 7 (Oct 17)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 14, Ohio Bobcats 31 (Oct 10)
Kent State Golden Flashes
- Kent State Golden Flashes team stats
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets (Oct 30)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 2, South Florida Bulls 29 (Oct 17)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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