Kent State Golden Flashes vs Western Michigan Broncos Final — October 10, 2026
KENTOffense2026 regular season to dateWMU
KENTDefenseWMUKENTRecent formWMUKENTHome and roadseason to dateWMUKENTLast 10 gamesWMURest & travelrest and travel
KENTRest & travelWMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kent State (1-3) visited Western Michigan (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Kent State has the 99th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Western Michigan has the 102nd-ranked offense and the 79th-ranked defense. When Kent State has the ball, a 99th-ranked offense (−0.035 EPA per play) meets a 79th-ranked defense (+0.089 allowed); when Western Michigan has it, a 102nd-ranked offense (−0.040) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.103 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kent State offense is at 46.5% (74th) and the Western Michigan offense at 43.4% (101st). Kent State scores 9.8 points per game (136th) and allows 35.5 (115th); Western Michigan scores 16.8 (117th) and allows 20.8 (37th).
Kent State is 2-3; its last game was a 13-10 loss to Ohio. Western Michigan is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 20-17 win over Buffalo.
Western Michigan closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against Kent State. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 43.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kent State +450, Western Michigan -630) prices Kent State at 17% and Western Michigan at 83%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38
Western Michigan Broncos won by 31.
- Against the closing spread (Western Michigan Broncos -13.5): Western Michigan Broncos covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- Western Michigan Broncos closed at -630 on the moneyline (a 83% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Kent State Golden Flashes.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kent State Golden Flashes 17%, Western Michigan Broncos 83%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Kent State | Points added | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 | Passingdropbacks | -3.7 |
| -3.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | +10.8 |
| +8.7 | Explosive plays4 plays · 8 plays | +16.9 |
| -2.9 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.8 |
| -0.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.2 |
| -0.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 3 of 6 | -3.1 |
| -5.1 | All plays | +21.9 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 14.0 points to Western Michigan Broncos. The final margin was 31.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Western Michigan Broncos closed as the market favourite at 83% and won.
The line moved toward Kent State Golden Flashes before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kent State +13.5 (-104)
Kent State +13.5 (-105)
Western Michigan -697 84%
Western Michigan -630 83%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts120
- Completion %58.3%178th
- Passing yards752193rd
- Yards per attempt6.3207th
- TD–INT3–5
- Rushing yards183223rd
- Season line39 carries, 183 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards246136th
- Season line19 catches, 246 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles24328th
- Attempts113
- Completion %68.1%45th
- Passing yards739197th
- Yards per attempt6.5186th
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards28798th
- Season line62 carries, 287 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards272102nd
- Season line18 catches, 272 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3498th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kent State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKent State offense vs Western Michigan defense | 39.6%109th | 46.8%108th |
| Early-down success rateWestern Michigan offense vs Kent State defense | 50.0%126th | 36.9%128th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKent State offense vs Western Michigan defense | 34.0%102nd | 37.8%54th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWestern Michigan offense vs Kent State defense | 43.3%98th | 43.8%48th |
| Explosive play rateKent State offense vs Western Michigan defense | 4.7%119th | 5.8%41st |
| Explosive play rateWestern Michigan offense vs Kent State defense | 7.3%87th | 2.7%136th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.5%74th-highest | 40.5%122nd-highest |
On 3rd down Kent State converts 34.0% (102nd) against a Western Michigan defense allowing 37.8% (54th).
On 3rd down Western Michigan converts 43.8% (48th) against a Kent State defense allowing 43.3% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kent State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mark Carney | Lance Taylor |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–10 | 23–21 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–10 | 23–21 |
| Offensive coordinator | Clay Patterson | Walt Bell |
| Defensive coordinator | Cherokee Valeria | Greer Martini / Duane Vaughn |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Kent State won 0 and Western Michigan 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | Kent State 21, Western Michigan 52 Western Michigan won | ||
| Oct 16, 2021 | Kent State 31, Western Michigan 64 Western Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Kent State Golden Flashes
- Kent State Golden Flashes team stats
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets (Oct 30)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 2, South Florida Bulls 29 (Oct 17)
- Ohio Bobcats 13, Kent State Golden Flashes 10 (Oct 3)
Western Michigan Broncos
- Western Michigan Broncos team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos (Oct 31)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 21, Central Michigan Chippewas 14 (Oct 17)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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