Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams Final — October 3, 2026
ORSTOffense2026 regular season to dateCSU
ORSTDefenseCSUORSTLast 10 gamesCSURest & travelrest and travel
ORSTRest & travelCSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Oregon State (1-2) visited Colorado State (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Oregon State has the 26th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 92nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Colorado State has the 12th-ranked offense and the 137th-ranked defense. When Oregon State has the ball, a 26th-ranked offense (+0.180 EPA per play) meets a 137th-ranked defense (+0.343 allowed); when Colorado State has it, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.281) meets a 92nd-ranked defense (+0.084 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Oregon State offense is at 45.9% (41st) and the Colorado State offense at 44.4% (53rd). Oregon State scores 25.7 points per game (70th) and allows 25.0 (60th); Colorado State scores 34.3 (24th) and allows 37.7 (120th).
Oregon State closed as a 7-point road favorite, with Colorado State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Oregon State -5. The total closed at 61.5, up from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oregon State -262, Colorado State +210) prices Oregon State at 69% and Colorado State at 31%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Oregon State Beavers 56, Colorado State Rams 26
Oregon State Beavers won by 30.
- Against the closing spread (Colorado State Rams +7): Oregon State Beavers covered.
- Combined score 82 vs the closing total of 61.5: Over.
- Oregon State Beavers closed at -262 on the moneyline (a 69% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Oregon State Beavers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Oregon State Beavers 69%, Colorado State Rams 31%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:20 — Oregon State Beavers ball, 1st & 10 at 50No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete deep right to #12 J.Legree caught at CSU23, for 50 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:20, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ojeda…Oregon State Beavers 72% → 80% (+8 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:24 — Colorado State Rams ball, 1st & 10 at ORST 17Mel Brown 17 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Colorado State Rams 14% → 53% (+40 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:16 — Oregon State Beavers ball, 1st & 10 at ORST 36No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the OSU29 (#56 K.Agurs), fumble by #2 B.Atkinson recovered by CSU #56 K.Agurs at OSU29, End Of PlayColorado State Rams 52% → 65% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:51 — Colorado State Rams ball, 4th & 1 at ORST 1K'saan Farrar 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Oregon State Beavers 33% → 62% (+29 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:55 — Oregon State Beavers ball, 1st & 10 at CSU 30Aaron Butler 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Oregon State Beavers 73% → 80% (+7 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Oregon State Beavers won after falling as low as 29% (Q2 13:18).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Oregon State Beavers would win 99% of the time (Colorado State Rams 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Oregon State Beavers. Here is where that came from.
| Oregon State | Points added | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| +6.6 | Passingdropbacks | +0.3 |
| +1.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.6 |
| +18.8 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +6.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.2 |
| +0.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.0 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.3 |
| +5.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 3 of 5 | +13.4 |
| +32.1 | All plays | +19.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.7 points to Oregon State Beavers. The final margin was 30.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Oregon State Beavers closed as the market favourite at 69% and won.
The line moved toward Oregon State Beavers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oregon State -5 (-108)
Oregon State -7 (-111)
Colorado State +155 37%
Colorado State +210 31%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts163
- Completion %65.0%92nd
- Passing yards1,4238th
- Yards per attempt8.753rd
- TD–INT11–2
- Rushing yards181173rd
- Season line30 carries, 181 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards5852nd
- Season line23 catches, 585 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles2977th
- Attempts76
- Completion %60.5%149th
- Passing yards471226th
- Yards per attempt6.2197th
- TD–INT2–2
- Rushing yards34632nd
- Season line38 carries, 346 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards26871st
- Season line19 catches, 268 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3339th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Oregon State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOregon State offense vs Colorado State defense | 47.0%11th | 47.3%130th |
| Early-down success rateColorado State offense vs Oregon State defense | 34.5%14th | 36.8%99th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOregon State offense vs Colorado State defense | 30.6%112th | 40.0%71st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColorado State offense vs Oregon State defense | 43.2%93rd | 42.9%50th |
| Explosive play rateOregon State offense vs Colorado State defense | 8.2%34th | 8.6%109th |
| Explosive play rateColorado State offense vs Oregon State defense | 6.6%66th | 7.1%65th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 70.1%1st-highest | 57.4%20th-highest |
On 3rd down Oregon State converts 30.6% (112th) against a Colorado State defense allowing 40.0% (71st).
On 3rd down Colorado State converts 42.9% (50th) against a Oregon State defense allowing 43.2% (93rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Oregon State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | JaMarcus Shephard | Jim Mora |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 2–2 | 75–55 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mitch Dahlen | Pryce Tracy |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike MacIntyre | Tyson Summers |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Oregon State won 1 and Colorado State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2024 | Colorado State 31, Oregon State 39 Oregon State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Oregon State Beavers
- Oregon State Beavers team stats
- Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Washington State Cougars 30, Oregon State Beavers 48 (Oct 17)
- San Diego State Aztecs 14, Oregon State Beavers 66 (Oct 10)
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
Colorado State Rams
- Colorado State Rams team stats
- Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (Oct 31)
- San Diego State Aztecs 49, Colorado State Rams 56 (Oct 24)
- Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66 (Oct 15)
- Colorado State Rams 45, UTSA Roadrunners 59 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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