Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Final — October 3, 2026
PUROffense2026 regular season to dateILL
PURDefenseILLPURLast 10 gamesILLRest & travelrest and travel
PURRest & travelILLAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Purdue (0-3) visited Illinois (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 4:15 PM ET.
Purdue has the 66th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 136th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Illinois has the 23rd-ranked offense and the 130th-ranked defense. When Purdue has the ball, a 66th-ranked offense (+0.021 EPA per play) meets a 130th-ranked defense (+0.292 allowed); when Illinois has it, a 23rd-ranked offense (+0.193) meets a 136th-ranked defense (+0.342 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Purdue offense is at 44.2% (56th) and the Illinois offense at 48.4% (20th). Purdue scores 28.0 points per game (63rd) and allows 46.3 (137th); Illinois scores 29.3 (55th) and allows 32.0 (103rd).
Illinois closed as a 9.5-point favorite at home against Purdue. The spread opened at Illinois -10. The total closed at 62.5, up from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Purdue +290, Illinois -375) prices Purdue at 25% and Illinois at 75%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Purdue Boilermakers 24, Illinois Fighting Illini 17
Purdue Boilermakers won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Illinois Fighting Illini -9.5): Purdue Boilermakers covered.
- Combined score 41 vs the closing total of 62.5: Under.
- Purdue Boilermakers closed at +290 on the moneyline (a 25% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Purdue Boilermakers 25%, Illinois Fighting Illini 75%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 12:36 — Purdue Boilermakers ball, 1st & 10 at PUR 34No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep right to #19 A.Waseem caught at ILL28, for 61 yards to the ILL05 (#7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWNPurdue Boilermakers 37% → 49% (+12 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:16 — Purdue Boilermakers ball, 1st & 10 at ILL 21No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep left to #11 T.Harris caught at ILL00, for 21 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverr…Purdue Boilermakers 58% → 68% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:21 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 2nd & 6 at PUR 7Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR00, for 7 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick atte…Illinois Fighting Illini 41% → 52% (+11 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:03 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 3rd & 11 at PUR 35Shotgun #4 K.Houser sacked for loss of 9 yards to the PUR44 (#5 C.Correa, #11 K.Burgos)Purdue Boilermakers 71% → 80% (+9 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:13 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 3rd & 9 at ILL 41Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR40, for 21 yards to the PUR38 (#2 J.Mangham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNIllinois Fighting Illini 20% → 31% (+11 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Purdue Boilermakers won after falling as low as 21% (Q1 1:16).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Illinois Fighting Illini would win 61% of the time (Purdue Boilermakers 39%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Illinois Fighting Illini. Here is where that came from.
| Purdue | Points added | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| +7.7 | Passingdropbacks | +0.9 |
| +3.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.7 |
| +11.6 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +6.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.0 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.1 |
| -2.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.0 |
| -3.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 2 of 4 | -1.9 |
| +17.2 | All plays | +6.2 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.8 points to Purdue Boilermakers. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Illinois Fighting Illini closed as the market favourite at 75% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Purdue +10 (-114)
Purdue +9.5 (-108)
Illinois -385 76%
Illinois -375 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts129
- Completion %71.3%22nd
- Passing yards1,13539th
- Yards per attempt8.848th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards28961st
- Season line67 carries, 289 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards35525th
- Season line24 catches, 355 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles27121st
- Attempts118
- Completion %68.6%47th
- Passing yards1,02165th
- Yards per attempt8.757th
- TD–INT9–2
- Rushing yards27271st
- Season line33 carries, 272 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards4307th
- Season line30 catches, 430 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles28100th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Purdue | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePurdue offense vs Illinois defense | 36.3%105th | 49.0%136th |
| Early-down success rateIllinois offense vs Purdue defense | 45.9%122nd | 46.0%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePurdue offense vs Illinois defense | 42.4%52nd | 48.6%117th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIllinois offense vs Purdue defense | 60.7%136th | 48.4%26th |
| Explosive play ratePurdue offense vs Illinois defense | 6.9%71st | 7.0%77th |
| Explosive play rateIllinois offense vs Purdue defense | 10.1%128th | 7.4%57th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.6%28th-highest | 50.9%66th-highest |
On 3rd down Purdue converts 42.4% (52nd) against a Illinois defense allowing 48.6% (117th).
On 3rd down Illinois converts 48.4% (26th) against a Purdue defense allowing 60.7% (136th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Purdue | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Barry Odom | Bret Bielema |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–13 | 39–28 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 47–46 | 136–86 |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh Henson | Barry Lunney Jr. |
| Defensive coordinator | Kevin Kane | Vacant |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Purdue won 3 and Illinois 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Illinois 43, Purdue 27 Illinois won | ||
| Oct 12, 2024 | Purdue 49, Illinois 50 Illinois won | ||
| Sep 30, 2023 | Illinois 19, Purdue 44 Purdue won | ||
| Nov 12, 2022 | Purdue 31, Illinois 24 Purdue won | ||
| Sep 25, 2021 | Illinois 9, Purdue 13 Purdue won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Purdue Boilermakers
- Purdue Boilermakers team stats
- Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions (Oct 31)
- Washington Huskies 38, Purdue Boilermakers 26 (Oct 16)
- Minnesota Golden Gophers 13, Purdue Boilermakers 41 (Oct 10)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 49, Purdue Boilermakers 10 (Sep 26)
Illinois Fighting Illini
- Illinois Fighting Illini team stats
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins (Oct 31)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results