Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini Final — October 24, 2026
OREOffense2026 regular season to dateILL
OREDefenseILLORERecent formILLOREHome and roadseason to dateILLORELast 10 gamesILLRest & travelrest and travel
ORERest & travelILLAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Oregon (3-2) visited Illinois (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:00 PM ET.
Oregon has the 114th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 24th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Illinois has the 33rd-ranked offense and the 137th-ranked defense. When Oregon has the ball, a 114th-ranked offense (−0.061 EPA per play) meets a 137th-ranked defense (+0.368 allowed); when Illinois has it, a 33rd-ranked offense (+0.182) meets a 24th-ranked defense (−0.060 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Oregon offense is at 40.1% (128th) and the Illinois offense at 51.5% (22nd). Oregon scores 27.6 points per game (59th) and allows 24.8 (61st); Illinois scores 28.6 (51st) and allows 31.4 (110th).
Oregon is 4-2; its last game was a 17-14 win over Nebraska. Illinois is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 38-37 win over Michigan State.
Oregon closed as a 10.5-point road favorite, with Illinois getting the points at home. The spread opened at Oregon -11.5. The total closed at 49.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oregon -430, Illinois +325) prices Oregon at 78% and Illinois at 22%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21
Illinois Fighting Illini won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Illinois Fighting Illini +10.5): Illinois Fighting Illini covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 49.5: Under.
- Illinois Fighting Illini closed at +325 on the moneyline (a 22% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Illinois Fighting Illini.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Oregon Ducks 78%, Illinois Fighting Illini 22%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 2:15 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 1st & 10 at ILL 25No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 75 yards gain to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:15, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS:…Illinois Fighting Illini 10% → 19% (+9 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:22 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 2nd & 6 at ORE 9Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short right to #86 C.Abney caught at ORE04, for 9 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:22, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick…Illinois Fighting Illini 34% → 42% (+9 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:09 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 3rd & 6 at ILL 27Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II rush left for 7 yards gain to the ILL34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNIllinois Fighting Illini 56% → 65% (+8 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:04 — Oregon Ducks ball, 4th & 7 at ILL 33#97 G.Hurych field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd), clock 06:04, End Of PlayIllinois Fighting Illini 57% → 73% (+16 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:32 — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 3rd & 3 at ILL 41Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush right for 33 yards gain to the ORE26 (#13 G.Nix), 1ST DOWNIllinois Fighting Illini 75% → 88% (+13 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
Illinois Fighting Illini won after falling as low as 7% (Q2 5:08).
Game DNA
| Oregon | Points added | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| +0.7 | Passingdropbacks | -9.7 |
| -4.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.9 |
| +6.8 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +14.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -10.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.1 |
| -3.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.3 |
| +1.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 1 of 1 | +2.0 |
| -10.3 | All plays | +0.2 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.8 points to Illinois Fighting Illini. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Oregon Ducks closed as the market favourite at 78% and lost.
The line moved toward Illinois Fighting Illini before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oregon -11.5 (-112)
Oregon -10.5 (-110)
Illinois +380 20%
Illinois +325 22%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts33
- Completion %54.5%
- Passing yards171
- Yards per attempt5.2
- TD–INT1–1
- Rushing yards330137th
- Season line74 carries, 330 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards352108th
- Season line27 catches, 352 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles40191st
- Attempts4
- Completion %100.0%
- Passing yards49
- Yards per attempt12.2
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards39193rd
- Season line62 carries, 391 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards60814th
- Season line47 catches, 608 yds, 9 TD
- Tackles41173rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOregon offense vs Illinois defense | 38.8%118th | 50.2%134th |
| Early-down success rateIllinois offense vs Oregon defense | 42.3%51st | 45.9%37th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOregon offense vs Illinois defense | 29.4%127th | 50.0%124th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIllinois offense vs Oregon defense | 29.9%6th | 50.0%19th |
| Explosive play rateOregon offense vs Illinois defense | 7.2%54th | 6.4%51st |
| Explosive play rateIllinois offense vs Oregon defense | 7.5%89th | 6.8%70th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.8%20th-highest | 53.4%41st-highest |
On 3rd down Oregon converts 29.4% (127th) against a Illinois defense allowing 50.0% (124th).
On 3rd down Illinois converts 50.0% (19th) against a Oregon defense allowing 29.9% (6th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Lanning | Bret Bielema |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 52–10 | 40–29 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 52–10 | 137–87 |
| Offensive coordinator | Drew Mehringer | Barry Lunney Jr. |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris Hampton | Vacant |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Oregon won 1 and Illinois 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | Illinois 9, Oregon 38 Oregon won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Oregon Ducks
- Oregon Ducks team stats
- Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks (Oct 31)
- Nebraska Cornhuskers 14, Oregon Ducks 17 (Oct 17)
- UCLA Bruins 17, Oregon Ducks 15 (Oct 10)
- Oregon Ducks 41, USC Trojans 27 (Sep 26)
Illinois Fighting Illini
- Illinois Fighting Illini team stats
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins (Oct 31)
- Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37 (Oct 10)
- Purdue Boilermakers 24, Illinois Fighting Illini 17 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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