Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers Final — October 10, 2026
MINNOffense2026 regular season to datePUR
MINNDefensePURMINNRecent formPURMINNHome and roadseason to datePURMINNLast 10 gamesPURRest & travelrest and travel
MINNRest & travelPURAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Minnesota (3-1) visited Purdue (1-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 8:00 PM ET.
Minnesota has the 106th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Purdue has the 48th-ranked offense and the 135th-ranked defense. When Minnesota has the ball, a 106th-ranked offense (−0.061 EPA per play) meets a 135th-ranked defense (+0.332 allowed); when Purdue has it, a 48th-ranked offense (+0.128) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.204 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Minnesota offense is at 43.1% (105th) and the Purdue offense at 49.2% (44th). Minnesota scores 25.2 points per game (72nd) and allows 20.8 (37th); Purdue scores 27.0 (65th) and allows 39.0 (127th).
Minnesota is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 20-14 win over Michigan. Purdue is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-17 win over Illinois.
Minnesota closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Purdue getting the points at home. The spread opened at Minnesota -4.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Minnesota -145, Purdue +120) prices Minnesota at 57% and Purdue at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Golden Gophers 13, Purdue Boilermakers 41
Purdue Boilermakers won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Purdue Boilermakers +2.5): Purdue Boilermakers covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Purdue Boilermakers closed at +120 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Purdue Boilermakers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Golden Gophers 57%, Purdue Boilermakers 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:23 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 2nd & 10 at MINN 29Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep left to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR43, for 28 yards to the PUR43 (#4 H.Hines), 1ST DOWNMinnesota Golden Gophers 52% → 58% (+6 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:26 — Purdue Boilermakers ball, 3rd & 7 at MINN 15No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #81 G.Burhenn caught at Min00, for 15 yards to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:26, 1ST DOWN. #0 A.Smit…Purdue Boilermakers 59% → 69% (+9 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 13:30 — Purdue Boilermakers ball, 4th & 1 at MINN 40Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the Min40 (#14 K.Brown), TURNOVER ON DOWNSMinnesota Golden Gophers 25% → 32% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 12:17 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 3rd & 8 at MINN 42Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR39, for 19 yards to the PUR39 (#4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PUR is challenging…Minnesota Golden Gophers 29% → 35% (+6 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:48 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 1st & 10 at PUR 39Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush right for 5 yards gain to the PUR34 (#7 D.Saunders) PENALTY Min UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#65 G.Johnson) 15 yards from PUR34 to PUR49Purdue Boilermakers 65% → 70% (+6 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Minnesota | Points added | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| +0.9 | Passingdropbacks | -7.2 |
| -7.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.8 |
| +10.6 | Explosive plays3 plays · 7 plays | +16.4 |
| -0.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.8 |
| +2.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.2 |
| -2.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 5 of 6 | +4.8 |
| +3.7 | All plays | +22.8 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 12.6 points to Purdue Boilermakers. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Minnesota Golden Gophers closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.
The line moved toward Purdue Boilermakers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Minnesota -4.5 (-110)
Minnesota -2.5 (-118)
Purdue +165 36%
Purdue +120 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts157
- Completion %66.9%57th
- Passing yards1,08792nd
- Yards per attempt6.9160th
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards30780th
- Season line46 carries, 307 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards34548th
- Season line26 catches, 345 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3498th
- Attempts156
- Completion %70.5%23rd
- Passing yards1,39036th
- Yards per attempt8.942nd
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards35452nd
- Season line86 carries, 354 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards45318th
- Season line27 catches, 453 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles33115th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Minnesota | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMinnesota offense vs Purdue defense | 38.4%120th | 45.5%97th |
| Early-down success ratePurdue offense vs Minnesota defense | 36.2%10th | 43.5%67th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMinnesota offense vs Purdue defense | 34.0%104th | 58.5%136th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePurdue offense vs Minnesota defense | 31.6%16th | 43.2%53rd |
| Explosive play rateMinnesota offense vs Purdue defense | 6.5%80th | 8.6%114th |
| Explosive play ratePurdue offense vs Minnesota defense | 5.9%47th | 6.9%67th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.3%16th-highest | 53.6%43rd-highest |
On 3rd down Minnesota converts 34.0% (104th) against a Purdue defense allowing 58.5% (136th).
On 3rd down Purdue converts 43.2% (53rd) against a Minnesota defense allowing 31.6% (16th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Minnesota | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | P. J. Fleck | Barry Odom |
| Tenureat this school | 10th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 70–45 | 4–13 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 100–67 | 48–46 |
| Offensive coordinator | Greg Harbaugh Jr. / Matt Simon | Josh Henson |
| Defensive coordinator | Danny Collins | Kevin Kane |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Minnesota won 2 and Purdue 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Purdue 20, Minnesota 27 Minnesota won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Minnesota 30, Purdue 49 Purdue won | ||
| Oct 1, 2022 | Purdue 20, Minnesota 10 Purdue won | ||
| Oct 2, 2021 | Minnesota 20, Purdue 13 Minnesota won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Minnesota Golden Gophers team stats
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers (Oct 31)
- Iowa Hawkeyes 10, Minnesota Golden Gophers 13 (Oct 24)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
Purdue Boilermakers
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
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- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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