Tulane Green Wave vs Army Black Knights Final — October 10, 2026
TULNOffense2026 regular season to dateARMY
TULNDefenseARMYTULNRecent formARMYTULNHome and roadseason to dateARMYTULNLast 10 gamesARMYRest & travelrest and travel
TULNRest & travelARMYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Tulane (2-2) visited Army (1-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
Tulane has the 91st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 78th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Army has the 23rd-ranked offense and the 137th-ranked defense. When Tulane has the ball, a 91st-ranked offense (+0.009 EPA per play) meets a 137th-ranked defense (+0.393 allowed); when Army has it, a 23rd-ranked offense (+0.230) meets a 78th-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Tulane offense is at 40.2% (124th) and the Army offense at 53.1% (12th). Tulane scores 18.8 points per game (104th) and allows 23.2 (51st); Army scores 24.7 (76th) and allows 25.3 (62nd).
Tulane is 2-2 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-21 win over Southern Miss. Army is 2-2 and 1-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 31-29 loss to Louisiana Tech.
Army closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Tulane. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 48.5, up from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Tulane +165, Army -205) prices Tulane at 36% and Army at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20
Army Black Knights won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Army Black Knights -5.5): Tulane Green Wave covered.
- Combined score 37 vs the closing total of 48.5: Under.
- Army Black Knights closed at -205 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Tulane Green Wave.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tulane Green Wave 36%, Army Black Knights 64%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 7:44 — Tulane Green Wave ball, 3rd & 7 at ARMY 39Jaylin Lucas 39 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Cooper Helmke Kick)Tulane Green Wave 55% → 76% (+21 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:54 — Army Black Knights ball, 2nd & 3 at ARMY 42Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 58 yards gain to the Tulane00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:54, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Army Black Knights 27% → 49% (+22 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:47 — Tulane Green Wave ball, 2nd & 8 at TULN 22No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Daniels rush left for 2 yards gain to the Tulane24 (#99 J.Bousum; #15 Z.Tallman)Tulane Green Wave 48% → 65% (+17 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:55 — Tulane Green Wave ball, 4th & 8 at ARMY 33No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep middle to #19 D.Johnson thrown to Army00 QB hurried by #96 D.Stowers, TURNOVER ON DOWNSArmy Black Knights 46% → 65% (+19 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Army Black Knights ball, 4th & 1 at TULN 8Dawson Jones 25 Yd Field GoalArmy Black Knights 84% → 100% (+16 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Army Black Knights won after falling as low as 26% (Q4 7:44).
Game DNA
| Tulane | Points added | Army |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 | Passingdropbacks | -0.4 |
| -1.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.8 |
| +9.7 | Explosive plays3 plays · 2 plays | +6.9 |
| -6.9 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.5 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.0 |
| +1.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 1 of 3 | -0.2 |
| -7.3 | All plays | -0.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.5 points to Army Black Knights. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Army Black Knights closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
The line moved toward Tulane Green Wave before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Tulane +5.5 (-110)
Tulane +5.5 (-112)
Army -226 66%
Army -205 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts93
- Completion %53.8%231st
- Passing yards646219th
- Yards per attempt7.0158th
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards277104th
- Season line26 carries, 277 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards169280th
- Season line12 catches, 169 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3849th
- Attempts49
- Completion %57.1%
- Passing yards337
- Yards per attempt6.9
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards30184th
- Season line66 carries, 301 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards102508th
- Season line7 catches, 102 yds
- Tackles32133rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTulane offense vs Army defense | 38.6%117th | 51.6%136th |
| Early-down success rateArmy offense vs Tulane defense | 38.9%23rd | 51.3%10th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTulane offense vs Army defense | 37.5%89th | 43.3%98th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArmy offense vs Tulane defense | 47.6%115th | 50.0%18th |
| Explosive play rateTulane offense vs Army defense | 7.6%46th | 11.0%134th |
| Explosive play rateArmy offense vs Tulane defense | 8.4%112th | 6.8%70th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.9%83rd-highest | 21.9%137th-highest |
On 3rd down Tulane converts 37.5% (89th) against a Army defense allowing 43.3% (98th).
On 3rd down Army converts 50.0% (18th) against a Tulane defense allowing 47.6% (115th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Will Hall | Jeff Monken |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 13th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–2 | 91–65 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 16–32 | 91–65 |
| Offensive coordinator | Russ Callaway | Cody Worley |
| Defensive coordinator | Nate Fuqua / Tayler Polk | Daryl Dixon / Scot Sloan |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Tulane won 1 and Army 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Army 17, Tulane 24 Tulane won | ||
| Dec 6, 2024 | Tulane 14, Army 35 Army won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Tulane Green Wave
- Tulane Green Wave team stats
- Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers (Oct 30)
- UTSA Roadrunners 42, Tulane Green Wave 19 (Oct 24)
- Memphis Tigers 17, Tulane Green Wave 31 (Oct 16)
Army Black Knights
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