Kansas State Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Final — October 24, 2026
KSUOffense2026 regular season to dateASU
KSUDefenseASUKSURecent formASUKSUHome and roadseason to dateASUKSULast 10 gamesASURest & travelrest and travel
KSURest & travelASUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kansas State (3-2) visited Arizona State (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:45 PM ET.
Kansas State has the 46th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arizona State has the 115th-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. When Kansas State has the ball, a 46th-ranked offense (+0.138 EPA per play) meets a 30th-ranked defense (−0.049 allowed); when Arizona State has it, a 115th-ranked offense (−0.066) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.106 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kansas State offense is at 52.1% (17th) and the Arizona State offense at 43.7% (101st). Kansas State scores 28.4 points per game (53rd) and allows 23.4 (46th); Arizona State scores 23.6 (83rd) and allows 37.0 (126th).
Kansas State is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 35-24 win over Kansas. Arizona State is 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 53-25 loss to Texas Tech.
Kansas State closed as a 1-point road favorite, with Arizona State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Kansas State -3.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kansas State -115, Arizona State -105) prices Kansas State at 51% and Arizona State at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kansas State Wildcats 17, Arizona State Sun Devils 28
Arizona State Sun Devils won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona State Sun Devils +1): Arizona State Sun Devils covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Arizona State Sun Devils closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 9 points toward Arizona State Sun Devils.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kansas State Wildcats 51%, Arizona State Sun Devils 49%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 2:26 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 3rd & 10 at ASU 45No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Keene pass complete short right to #9 C.Butler Jr. caught at ASU50, for 6 yards to the KSU49 (#34 N.McClellan)Arizona State Sun Devils 55% → 67% (+11 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:01 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 4th & 3 at ASU 10#35 N.McLarty punt 38 yards to the ASU48 #6 S.Lockett return 27 yards to the ASU21 (#21 K.McDonald), out of boundsKansas State Wildcats 41% → 49% (+8 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:59 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at ASU 10No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Knuth rush left for 10 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:59, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Jo…Kansas State Wildcats 51% → 59% (+8 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:21 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 4th & 2 at ASU 40Shotgun #7 J.Knuth pass complete short right to #87 L.McGraw caught at ASU44, for 4 yards loss to the ASU44 QB hurried by #21 K.McDonald (#6 A.Wilson) PENALTY KSU Holdin…Arizona State Sun Devils 64% → 78% (+14 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:21 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 3rd & 7 at ASU 44No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Mack rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU47 (#10 L.Bartley; #91 J.Allen)Kansas State Wildcats 27% → 36% (+9 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Arizona State Sun Devils won after falling as low as 27% (Q3 6:59).
Game DNA
| Kansas State | Points added | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| -12.0 | Passingdropbacks | -9.4 |
| -14.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.0 |
| +3.4 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +14.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -1.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.8 |
| +0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.2 |
| +3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 4 of 6 | +3.5 |
| -20.9 | All plays | +0.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 10.8 points to Arizona State Sun Devils. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Kansas State Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Arizona State Sun Devils before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kansas State -3.5 (-103)
Kansas State -1 (-110)
Arizona State +140 40%
Arizona State -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Rushing yards46251st
- Season line51 carries, 462 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards268214th
- Season line25 catches, 268 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles34314th
- Attempts168
- Completion %61.9%131st
- Passing yards1,353103rd
- Yards per attempt8.171st
- TD–INT13–5
- Rushing yards329139th
- Season line60 carries, 329 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards6539th
- Season line41 catches, 653 yds, 8 TD
- Tackles5340th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kansas State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKansas State offense vs Arizona State defense | 45.5%41st | 41.3%37th |
| Early-down success rateArizona State offense vs Kansas State defense | 43.5%78th | 45.8%39th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKansas State offense vs Arizona State defense | 55.2%8th | 40.9%74th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona State offense vs Kansas State defense | 39.7%62nd | 29.1%128th |
| Explosive play rateKansas State offense vs Arizona State defense | 8.5%23rd | 7.8%99th |
| Explosive play rateArizona State offense vs Kansas State defense | 8.1%108th | 7.4%47th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.3%92nd-highest | 50.9%70th-highest |
On 3rd down Kansas State converts 55.2% (8th) against a Arizona State defense allowing 40.9% (74th).
On 3rd down Arizona State converts 29.1% (128th) against a Kansas State defense allowing 39.7% (62nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kansas State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Collin Klein | Kenny Dillingham |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–2 | 25–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–2 | 25–19 |
| Offensive coordinator | Sean Gleeson | Marcus Arroyo |
| Defensive coordinator | Jordan Peterson | Brian Ward |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Kansas State won 0 and Arizona State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Arizona State 24, Kansas State 14 Arizona State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Kansas State Wildcats
- Kansas State Wildcats team stats
- Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (Oct 31)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Houston Cougars 35, Kansas State Wildcats 16 (Oct 10)
- Kansas State Wildcats 26, Cincinnati Bearcats 31 (Sep 26)
Arizona State Sun Devils
- Arizona State Sun Devils team stats
- Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars (Oct 31)
- Arizona State Sun Devils 25, Texas Tech Red Raiders 53 (Oct 17)
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 12, Arizona State Sun Devils 30 (Oct 10)
- Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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