Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Final — October 17, 2026
ASUOffense2026 regular season to dateTTU
ASUDefenseTTUASURecent formTTUASUHome and roadseason to dateTTUASULast 10 gamesTTURest & travelrest and travel
ASURest & travelTTUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arizona State (2-2) visited Texas Tech (4-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
Arizona State has the 107th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 17th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas Tech has the 90th-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When Arizona State has the ball, a 107th-ranked offense (−0.038 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (−0.072 allowed); when Texas Tech has it, a 90th-ranked offense (+0.007) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.094 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arizona State offense is at 43.8% (97th) and the Texas Tech offense at 43.1% (104th). Arizona State scores 23.2 points per game (82nd) and allows 33.0 (112th); Texas Tech scores 35.2 (25th) and allows 17.8 (25th).
Arizona State is 2-2 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 30-12 win over Hawai'i. Texas Tech is 5-0 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 29-7 win over Colorado.
Texas Tech closed as a 16.5-point favorite at home against Arizona State. The spread opened at Texas Tech -12.5. The total closed at 49.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arizona State +550, Texas Tech -835) prices Arizona State at 15% and Texas Tech at 85%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arizona State Sun Devils 25, Texas Tech Red Raiders 53
Texas Tech Red Raiders won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Texas Tech Red Raiders -16.5): Texas Tech Red Raiders covered.
- Combined score 78 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders closed at -835 on the moneyline (a 85% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arizona State Sun Devils 15%, Texas Tech Red Raiders 85%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:06 — Texas Tech Red Raiders ball, 1st & 8 at ASU 8No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Williams rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU02 fumbled by #20 J.Williams at ASU02 forced by #23 J.McGrew recovered by ASU #0 R.Bimage…Arizona State Sun Devils 10% → 16% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:48 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 1st & 10 at ASU 20No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass intercepted by #13 B.Roberts at ASU24 #13 B.Roberts return 24 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:48 #48 S.Harrington kick a…Texas Tech Red Raiders 82% → 91% (+9 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Arizona State | Points added | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| -7.3 | Passingdropbacks | +6.5 |
| -5.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.8 |
| +19.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 5 plays | +10.2 |
| -12.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.4 |
| -0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.5 |
| -0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.2 |
| +10.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 3 of 8 | -0.9 |
| +3.3 | All plays | +9.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.8 points to Texas Tech Red Raiders. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Texas Tech Red Raiders closed as the market favourite at 85% and won.
The line moved toward Texas Tech Red Raiders before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arizona State +12.5 (-110)
Arizona State +16.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -522 80%
Texas Tech -835 85%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts158
- Completion %62.7%118th
- Passing yards1,22996th
- Yards per attempt7.898th
- TD–INT12–3
- Rushing yards290132nd
- Season line55 carries, 290 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards5909th
- Season line34 catches, 590 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles4836th
- Attempts142
- Completion %68.3%36th
- Passing yards1,102122nd
- Yards per attempt7.899th
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards37372nd
- Season line63 carries, 373 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards298127th
- Season line17 catches, 298 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles35188th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arizona State | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArizona State offense vs Texas Tech defense | 45.7%38th | 43.7%78th |
| Early-down success rateTexas Tech offense vs Arizona State defense | 38.5%19th | 37.6%127th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona State offense vs Texas Tech defense | 29.8%123rd | 40.7%74th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas Tech offense vs Arizona State defense | 42.1%84th | 44.4%41st |
| Explosive play rateArizona State offense vs Texas Tech defense | 6.8%69th | 5.7%36th |
| Explosive play rateTexas Tech offense vs Arizona State defense | 7.4%87th | 6.9%66th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.5%64th-highest | 47.4%92nd-highest |
On 3rd down Arizona State converts 29.8% (123rd) against a Texas Tech defense allowing 40.7% (74th).
On 3rd down Texas Tech converts 44.4% (41st) against a Arizona State defense allowing 42.1% (84th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arizona State | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kenny Dillingham | Joey McGuire |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 25–18 | 40–18 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 25–18 | 40–18 |
| Offensive coordinator | Marcus Arroyo | Mack Leftwich |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Ward | Rob Greene / Shiel Wood |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Arizona State won 1 and Texas Tech 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Texas Tech 22, Arizona State 26 Arizona State won | ||
| Sep 21, 2024 | Arizona State 22, Texas Tech 30 Texas Tech won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Arizona State Sun Devils
- Arizona State Sun Devils team stats
- Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars (Oct 31)
- Kansas State Wildcats 17, Arizona State Sun Devils 28 (Oct 24)
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 12, Arizona State Sun Devils 30 (Oct 10)
- Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19 (Oct 3)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
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- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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