Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons Final — October 10, 2026
SACOffense2026 regular season to dateBGSU
SACDefenseBGSUSACRecent formBGSUSACHome and roadseason to dateBGSUSACLast 10 gamesBGSURest & travelrest and travel
SACRest & travelBGSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Sacramento State (0-4) visited Bowling Green (1-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
Sacramento State has the 133rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 66th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Bowling Green has the 132nd-ranked offense and the 110th-ranked defense. When Sacramento State has the ball, a 133rd-ranked offense (−0.242 EPA per play) meets a 110th-ranked defense (+0.192 allowed); when Bowling Green has it, a 132nd-ranked offense (−0.199) meets a 66th-ranked defense (+0.058 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Sacramento State offense is at 43.2% (103rd) and the Bowling Green offense at 35.4% (136th). Sacramento State scores 9.0 points per game (137th) and allows 35.8 (116th); Bowling Green scores 11.0 (133rd) and allows 36.2 (118th).
Sacramento State is 1-4; its last game was a 35-6 loss to Massachusetts. Bowling Green is 1-4 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-20 win over Miami (OH).
Bowling Green closed as a 9.5-point favorite at home against Sacramento State. The spread opened at Bowling Green -7. The total closed at 43.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sacramento State +270, Bowling Green -357) prices Sacramento State at 26% and Bowling Green at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38
Bowling Green Falcons won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (Bowling Green Falcons -9.5): Bowling Green Falcons covered.
- Combined score 48 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- Bowling Green Falcons closed at -357 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Bowling Green Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Sacramento State Hornets 26%, Bowling Green Falcons 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:30 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 1st & 10 at BGSU 44Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass intercepted by #1 B.Silvera at Sac St46 QB hurried by #18 F.Puloka, End Of PlaySacramento State Hornets 24% → 33% (+9 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:08 — Sacramento State Hornets ball, 3rd & 14 at BGSU 15Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #82 K.Koontz thrown to BGSU00Bowling Green Falcons 57% → 69% (+12 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:30 — Sacramento State Hornets ball, 1st & 10 at SAC 36Shotgun Sacramento St. rush middle for 16 yards loss to the Sac St20, End Of PlayBowling Green Falcons 58% → 65% (+8 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:12 — Sacramento State Hornets ball, 2nd & 10 at SAC 35Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 14 yards to the Sac St21 (#26 J.Andrews, #5 E.George)Bowling Green Falcons 77% → 83% (+5 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Sacramento State | Points added | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.6 |
| +1.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +1.8 |
| +6.1 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +8.7 |
| -6.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.8 |
| -5.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.0 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.9 |
| -2.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 2 of 5 | +3.2 |
| -15.2 | All plays | +10.1 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.9 points to Bowling Green Falcons. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Bowling Green Falcons closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward Bowling Green Falcons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sacramento State +7 (-110)
Sacramento State +9.5 (-110)
Bowling Green -276 70%
Bowling Green -357 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts143
- Completion %57.3%190th
- Passing yards856149th
- Yards per attempt6.0223rd
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards141298th
- Season line29 carries, 141 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards36938th
- Season line26 catches, 369 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles33115th
- Attempts128
- Completion %64.8%87th
- Passing yards870143rd
- Yards per attempt6.8170th
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards185217th
- Season line62 carries, 185 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards217184th
- Season line15 catches, 217 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles495th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSacramento State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 41.4%89th | 50.0%126th |
| Early-down success rateBowling Green offense vs Sacramento State defense | 41.8%50th | 36.2%130th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSacramento State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 34.9%97th | 37.9%57th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBowling Green offense vs Sacramento State defense | 43.2%97th | 32.4%109th |
| Explosive play rateSacramento State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 4.0%131st | 9.4%126th |
| Explosive play rateBowling Green offense vs Sacramento State defense | 9.3%125th | 2.4%138th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 65.5%3rd-highest | 54.1%40th-highest |
On 3rd down Sacramento State converts 34.9% (97th) against a Bowling Green defense allowing 37.9% (57th).
On 3rd down Bowling Green converts 32.4% (109th) against a Sacramento State defense allowing 43.2% (97th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Alonzo Carter | Eddie George |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 1–4 | 5–12 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 1–4 | 5–12 |
| Offensive coordinator | Eric Kiesau / Eric Scott | Greg Nosal |
| Defensive coordinator | Adam Clark / Kenwick Thompson | Joe Bowden |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Sacramento State Hornets
- Sacramento State Hornets team stats
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets (Oct 30)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
- Ohio Bobcats 48, Sacramento State Hornets 7 (Oct 17)
Bowling Green Falcons
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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