West Virginia Mountaineers vs TCU Horned Frogs Final — October 24, 2026
WVUOffense2026 regular season to dateTCU
WVUDefenseTCUWVURecent formTCUWVUHome and roadseason to dateTCUWVULast 10 gamesTCURest & travelrest and travel
WVURest & travelTCUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
West Virginia (3-3) visited TCU (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
West Virginia has the 41st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 134th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, TCU has the 90th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When West Virginia has the ball, a 41st-ranked offense (+0.152 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (−0.068 allowed); when TCU has it, a 90th-ranked offense (+0.009) meets a 134th-ranked defense (+0.323 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the West Virginia offense is at 46.4% (76th) and the TCU offense at 44.2% (98th). West Virginia scores 35.2 points per game (20th) and allows 38.5 (130th); TCU scores 16.2 (123rd) and allows 13.2 (4th).
West Virginia is 4-3; its last game was a 45-42 win over Cincinnati. TCU is 2-3; its last game was a 17-6 win over Baylor.
TCU closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against West Virginia. The spread opened at TCU -6.5. The total closed 58.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (West Virginia +282, TCU -360) prices West Virginia at 25% and TCU at 75%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20
West Virginia Mountaineers won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (TCU Horned Frogs -10.5): West Virginia Mountaineers covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 58.5: Under.
- West Virginia Mountaineers closed at +282 on the moneyline (a 25% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward TCU Horned Frogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (West Virginia Mountaineers 25%, TCU Horned Frogs 75%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 8:56 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 2nd & 6 at TCU 36No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Hawkins Jr. rush middle for 36 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:56, 1ST DOWN #42 J.Cassidy kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen,…West Virginia Mountaineers 29% → 43% (+14 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:03 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 4th & 2 at WVU 20No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Denman thrown to WVU22, TURNOVER ON DOWNSWest Virginia Mountaineers 47% → 64% (+18 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:14 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 3rd & 9 at WVU 42No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #80 J.Hayes caught at WVU28, for 15 yards to the WVU27 (#29 K.Reddic), 1ST DOWNTCU Horned Frogs 26% → 45% (+19 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:50 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 3rd & 5 at WVU 22No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at WVU16, for 8 yards to the WVU14 (#29 K.Reddic), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNTCU Horned Frogs 35% → 52% (+16 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:34 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 2nd & 10 at WVU 14No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WVU23 (#93 N.Gabriel), fumble by #1 J.Craig recovered by WVU #15 B.Cutter at WVU23, End Of PlayWest Virginia Mountaineers 54% → 90% (+36 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
West Virginia Mountaineers won after falling as low as 18% (Q1 2:54).
Game DNA
| West Virginia | Points added | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Passingdropbacks | -1.7 |
| -2.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.4 |
| +8.2 | Explosive plays3 plays · 9 plays | +21.8 |
| -1.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.5 |
| +3.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.0 |
| +4.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.7 |
| +4.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 2 of 5 | -8.5 |
| +12.4 | All plays | +7.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 13.7 points to TCU Horned Frogs. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
TCU Horned Frogs closed as the market favourite at 75% and lost.
The line moved toward TCU Horned Frogs before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
West Virginia +6.5 (-105)
West Virginia +10.5 (-115)
TCU -245 68%
TCU -360 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts144
- Completion %57.6%185th
- Passing yards1,51976th
- Yards per attempt10.63rd
- TD–INT10–1
- Rushing yards8335th
- Season line168 carries, 833 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards55620th
- Season line22 catches, 556 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles44130th
- Attempts193
- Completion %66.8%51st
- Passing yards1,69442nd
- Yards per attempt8.840th
- TD–INT10–5
- Rushing yards42973rd
- Season line88 carries, 429 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards49433rd
- Season line35 catches, 494 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles32370th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | West Virginia | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWest Virginia offense vs TCU defense | 42.9%74th | 38.6%16th |
| Early-down success rateTCU offense vs West Virginia defense | 50.0%133rd | 40.6%100th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWest Virginia offense vs TCU defense | 49.5%22nd | 35.3%33rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTCU offense vs West Virginia defense | 37.9%50th | 43.2%43rd |
| Explosive play rateWest Virginia offense vs TCU defense | 9.2%14th | 4.0%8th |
| Explosive play rateTCU offense vs West Virginia defense | 12.0%138th | 6.9%64th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 31.1%134th-highest | 54.4%31st-highest |
On 3rd down West Virginia converts 49.5% (22nd) against a TCU defense allowing 35.3% (33rd).
On 3rd down TCU converts 43.2% (43rd) against a West Virginia defense allowing 37.9% (50th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | West Virginia | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Rich Rodriguez | Sonny Dykes |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 68–37 | 39–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 144–102 | 110–83 |
| Offensive coordinator | Rich Rodriguez | A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis |
| Defensive coordinator | Zac Alley | Andy Avalos |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: West Virginia won 2 and TCU 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | TCU 23, West Virginia 17 TCU won | ||
| Sep 30, 2023 | West Virginia 24, TCU 21 West Virginia won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | TCU 41, West Virginia 31 TCU won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | West Virginia 29, TCU 17 West Virginia won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
West Virginia Mountaineers
- West Virginia Mountaineers team stats
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
TCU Horned Frogs
- TCU Horned Frogs team stats
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (Oct 31)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- BYU Cougars 17, TCU Horned Frogs 10 (Oct 3)
- TCU Horned Frogs 13, UCF Knights 21 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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