Arizona Wildcats vs West Virginia Mountaineers Final — October 10, 2026
ARIZOffense2026 regular season to dateWVU
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2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Arizona (3-1) visited West Virginia (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
Arizona has the 20th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 51st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, West Virginia has the 45th-ranked offense and the 127th-ranked defense. When Arizona has the ball, a 20th-ranked offense (+0.245 EPA per play) meets a 127th-ranked defense (+0.274 allowed); when West Virginia has it, a 45th-ranked offense (+0.133) meets a 51st-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Arizona offense is at 49.8% (38th) and the West Virginia offense at 44.1% (95th). Arizona scores 31.8 points per game (45th) and allows 19.0 (32nd); West Virginia scores 33.8 (28th) and allows 34.2 (112th).
Arizona is 4-1 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 34-7 win over Cincinnati. West Virginia is 3-2; its last game was a 45-42 loss to Iowa State.
Arizona closed as a 3.5-point road favorite, with West Virginia getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 61.5, up from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Arizona -172, West Virginia +142) prices Arizona at 60% and West Virginia at 40%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31
Arizona Wildcats won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5): Arizona Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 83 vs the closing total of 61.5: Over.
- Arizona Wildcats closed at -172 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Arizona Wildcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Arizona Wildcats 60%, West Virginia Mountaineers 40%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:03 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 2nd & 5 at WVU 30Lee Molette III 32 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Arizona Wildcats 70% → 84% (+14 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 13:09 — Arizona Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at ARIZ 16No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass intercepted by #99 D.Afogho at ARI03 broken up by #93 N.Gabriel, End Of PlayWest Virginia Mountaineers 13% → 24% (+11 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:52 — Arizona Wildcats ball, 2nd & 10 at WVU 40Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 40 yards gain to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:52, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #34 C.Schwartz, LS: #4…Arizona Wildcats 68% → 79% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:51 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 2nd & 2 at ARIZ 2No Huddle #4 C.Cook rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ARI03 fumbled by #4 C.Cook at ARI02 forced by #8 J.Cole recovered by ARI #6 T.Brown at ARI03, End Of PlayArizona Wildcats 68% → 80% (+12 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:13 — Arizona Wildcats ball, 3rd & 7 at ARIZ 28No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #17 I.Mizell caught at ARI30, for 72 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgad…Arizona Wildcats 82% → 94% (+12 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Arizona | Points added | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6 | Passingdropbacks | -7.5 |
| -9.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +5.6 |
| +27.1 | Explosive plays9 plays · 7 plays | +19.1 |
| -6.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -14.6 |
| -2.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.7 |
| +3.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.8 |
| +6.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 3 of 6 | -4.0 |
| +15.6 | All plays | -4.0 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 15.5 points to West Virginia Mountaineers. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Arizona Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward Arizona Wildcats before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Arizona -3.5 (-100)
Arizona -3.5 (-106)
West Virginia +125 43%
West Virginia +142 40%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts167
- Completion %73.7%9th
- Passing yards1,39831st
- Yards per attempt8.462nd
- TD–INT13–3
- Rushing yards218165th
- Season line61 carries, 218 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards31474th
- Season line22 catches, 314 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles30173rd
- Attempts83
- Completion %56.6%204th
- Passing yards836158th
- Yards per attempt10.114th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards6522nd
- Season line119 carries, 652 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards39328th
- Season line14 catches, 393 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3761st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Arizona | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateArizona offense vs West Virginia defense | 44.4%49th | 50.0%126th |
| Early-down success rateWest Virginia offense vs Arizona defense | 47.2%112th | 39.8%107th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona offense vs West Virginia defense | 61.7%2nd | 32.6%24th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWest Virginia offense vs Arizona defense | 40.8%77th | 50.8%17th |
| Explosive play rateArizona offense vs West Virginia defense | 7.6%46th | 11.4%138th |
| Explosive play rateWest Virginia offense vs Arizona defense | 5.9%46th | 9.4%12th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.1%26th-highest | 28.1%135th-highest |
On 3rd down Arizona converts 61.7% (2nd) against a West Virginia defense allowing 32.6% (24th).
On 3rd down West Virginia converts 50.8% (17th) against a Arizona defense allowing 40.8% (77th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Arizona | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Brent Brennan | Rich Rodriguez |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 17–13 | 67–36 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 51–61 | 143–101 |
| Offensive coordinator | Seth Doege | Rich Rodriguez |
| Defensive coordinator | Danny Gonzales | Zac Alley |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Arizona won 0 and West Virginia 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | West Virginia 31, Arizona 26 West Virginia won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Arizona Wildcats
- Arizona Wildcats team stats
- Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders (Oct 31)
- Iowa State Cyclones 3, Arizona Wildcats 39 (Oct 24)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 7, Arizona Wildcats 34 (Oct 3)
West Virginia Mountaineers
- West Virginia Mountaineers team stats
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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