Cincinnati Bearcats vs West Virginia Mountaineers Final — October 17, 2026
CINOffense2026 regular season to dateWVU
CINDefenseWVUCINRecent formWVUCINHome and roadseason to dateWVUCINLast 10 gamesWVURest & travelrest and travel
CINRest & travelWVUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Cincinnati (3-1) visited West Virginia (2-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Cincinnati has the 35th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 72nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, West Virginia has the 53rd-ranked offense and the 131st-ranked defense. When Cincinnati has the ball, a 35th-ranked offense (+0.163 EPA per play) meets a 131st-ranked defense (+0.281 allowed); when West Virginia has it, a 53rd-ranked offense (+0.093) meets a 72nd-ranked defense (+0.072 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Cincinnati offense is at 52.3% (15th) and the West Virginia offense at 44.4% (89th). Cincinnati scores 26.8 points per game (65th) and allows 26.5 (73rd); West Virginia scores 33.2 (29th) and allows 37.8 (127th).
Cincinnati is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 34-7 loss to Arizona. West Virginia is 3-3; its last game was a 52-31 loss to Arizona.
West Virginia closed as a 1.5-point favorite at home against Cincinnati. The spread opened at West Virginia -2.5. The total closed at 64.5, up from 62.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Cincinnati +100, West Virginia -124) prices Cincinnati at 47% and West Virginia at 53%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45
West Virginia Mountaineers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (West Virginia Mountaineers -1.5): West Virginia Mountaineers covered.
- Combined score 87 vs the closing total of 64.5: Over.
- West Virginia Mountaineers closed at -124 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Cincinnati Bearcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cincinnati Bearcats 47%, West Virginia Mountaineers 53%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 6:44 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 3rd & 7 at CIN 28No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete deep left to #9 M.Henry caught at WVU35, for 59 yards to the WVU13 (#29 K.Reddic), 1ST DOWNCincinnati Bearcats 49% → 76% (+27 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:44 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 2nd & 11 at CIN 40No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete short left to #4 C.Cook caught at CIN44, for 40 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:44, 1ST DOWN #42 J.Cassid…West Virginia Mountaineers 20% → 45% (+25 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:48 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 3rd & 9 at WVU 2No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete deep left to #17 P.Strachan caught at WVU43, for 41 yards to the WVU43 (#0 J.Finley), 1ST DOWNWest Virginia Mountaineers 48% → 70% (+22 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:11 — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 2nd & 10 at WVU 43No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete short middle to #17 P.Strachan caught at CIN40, for 39 yards to the CIN18 (#18 J.Beeler), 1ST DOWNWest Virginia Mountaineers 67% → 88% (+21 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — West Virginia Mountaineers ball, 3rd & 9 at CIN 17Jack Cassidy 35 Yd Field GoalWest Virginia Mountaineers 81% → 100% (+19 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
West Virginia Mountaineers won after falling as low as 13% (Q4 4:33).
Game DNA
| Cincinnati | Points added | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| +5.1 | Passingdropbacks | -0.5 |
| +3.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.5 |
| +21.5 | Explosive plays6 plays · 9 plays | +29.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.8 |
| -5.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.8 |
| +3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 4 of 5 | +5.8 |
| +27.1 | All plays | +34.3 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.1 points to West Virginia Mountaineers. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
West Virginia Mountaineers closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward Cincinnati Bearcats before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Cincinnati +2.5 (-111)
Cincinnati +1.5 (-110)
West Virginia -136 55%
West Virginia -124 53%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts123
- Completion %69.9%24th
- Passing yards949162nd
- Yards per attempt7.7104th
- TD–INT6–0
- Rushing yards39262nd
- Season line62 carries, 392 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards267159th
- Season line18 catches, 267 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles37148th
- Attempts111
- Completion %52.3%238th
- Passing yards1,055136th
- Yards per attempt9.519th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards7933rd
- Season line153 carries, 793 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards39356th
- Season line14 catches, 393 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles40109th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Cincinnati | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCincinnati offense vs West Virginia defense | 49.7%12th | 49.8%132nd |
| Early-down success rateWest Virginia offense vs Cincinnati defense | 44.3%85th | 41.1%92nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCincinnati offense vs West Virginia defense | 40.8%71st | 33.3%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWest Virginia offense vs Cincinnati defense | 51.0%130th | 50.0%18th |
| Explosive play rateCincinnati offense vs West Virginia defense | 7.5%50th | 12.4%138th |
| Explosive play rateWest Virginia offense vs Cincinnati defense | 6.0%45th | 8.7%24th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.2%102nd-highest | 28.2%135th-highest |
On 3rd down Cincinnati converts 40.8% (71st) against a West Virginia defense allowing 33.3% (22nd).
On 3rd down West Virginia converts 50.0% (18th) against a Cincinnati defense allowing 51.0% (130th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Cincinnati | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Scott Satterfield | Rich Rodriguez |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 19–23 | 67–37 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 91–63 | 143–102 |
| Offensive coordinator | Nic Cardwell / Pete Thomas | Rich Rodriguez |
| Defensive coordinator | Nate Woody | Zac Alley |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Cincinnati won 0 and West Virginia 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 24 West Virginia won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Cincinnati 21, West Virginia 42 West Virginia won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Cincinnati Bearcats
- Cincinnati Bearcats team stats
- Utah Utes at Cincinnati Bearcats (Oct 31)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 7, Arizona Wildcats 34 (Oct 3)
- Kansas State Wildcats 26, Cincinnati Bearcats 31 (Sep 26)
West Virginia Mountaineers
- West Virginia Mountaineers team stats
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
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