Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Cincinnati Bearcats Final — October 24, 2026
TTUOffense2026 regular season to dateCIN
TTUDefenseCINTTURecent formCINTTUHome and roadseason to dateCINTTULast 10 gamesCINRest & travelrest and travel
TTURest & travelCINAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Texas Tech (5-0) visited Cincinnati (3-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
Texas Tech has the 82nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Cincinnati has the 16th-ranked offense and the 104th-ranked defense. When Texas Tech has the ball, a 82nd-ranked offense (+0.036 EPA per play) meets a 104th-ranked defense (+0.165 allowed); when Cincinnati has it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.243) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.092 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texas Tech offense is at 45.3% (86th) and the Cincinnati offense at 53.2% (11th). Texas Tech scores 38.8 points per game (7th) and allows 19.2 (29th); Cincinnati scores 29.8 (43rd) and allows 30.2 (102nd).
Texas Tech is 6-0 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 53-25 win over Arizona State. Cincinnati is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 45-42 loss to West Virginia.
Texas Tech closed as a 10.5-point road favorite, with Cincinnati getting the points at home. The spread opened at Texas Tech -11.5. The total closed at 57.5, up from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texas Tech -445, Cincinnati +340) prices Texas Tech at 78% and Cincinnati at 22%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37
Cincinnati Bearcats won by 13.
- Against the closing spread (Cincinnati Bearcats +10.5): Cincinnati Bearcats covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 57.5: Over.
- Cincinnati Bearcats closed at +340 on the moneyline (a 22% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Texas Tech Red Raiders 78%, Cincinnati Bearcats 22%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 4:22 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 4th & 2 at TTU 47No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short left to #7 Z.Perry caught at TTU49, for 17 yards to the TTU30 (#7 B.Jordan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNCincinnati Bearcats 37% → 46% (+9 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:37 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 2nd & 5 at TTU 5Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #9 M.Henry caught at TTU00, for 5 yards to the TTU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:37 PENALTY TTU Holding declined #99…Texas Tech Red Raiders 26% → 40% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:20 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 1st & 10 at CIN 25Shotgun #3 C.Tabb rush middle for 51 yards gain to the TTU24 (#13 B.Roberts), 1ST DOWNCincinnati Bearcats 62% → 72% (+9 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:49 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 3rd & 6 at CIN 40Peyton Morgan 53 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Texas Tech Red Raiders 18% → 34% (+17 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:34 — Cincinnati Bearcats ball, 3rd & 4 at CIN 31No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass intercepted by #27 A.Boyd at CIN37 QB hurried by #92 B.Butler, End Of PlayTexas Tech Red Raiders 36% → 47% (+11 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Cincinnati Bearcats won after falling as low as 14% (Q2 13:55).
Game DNA
| Texas Tech | Points added | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6 | Passingdropbacks | +1.6 |
| +5.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.2 |
| +6.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 1 plays | +6.2 |
| -5.6 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -14.2 |
| +1.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.9 |
| -1.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.1 |
| +0.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 4 of 4 | +6.7 |
| +4.0 | All plays | +2.5 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 8.6 points to Texas Tech Red Raiders. The final margin was 13.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas Tech Red Raiders closed as the market favourite at 78% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texas Tech -11.5 (-107)
Texas Tech -10.5 (-110)
Cincinnati +330 22%
Cincinnati +340 22%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts168
- Completion %68.5%31st
- Passing yards1,334109th
- Yards per attempt7.984th
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards53835th
- Season line74 carries, 538 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards41867th
- Season line24 catches, 418 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles42156th
- Attempts153
- Completion %70.6%14th
- Passing yards1,338105th
- Yards per attempt8.842nd
- TD–INT9–0
- Rushing yards44857th
- Season line49 carries, 448 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards342118th
- Season line25 catches, 342 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5340th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexas Tech offense vs Cincinnati defense | 40.5%102nd | 46.1%109th |
| Early-down success rateCincinnati offense vs Texas Tech defense | 43.9%84th | 50.0%7th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas Tech offense vs Cincinnati defense | 42.6%50th | 50.0%124th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCincinnati offense vs Texas Tech defense | 38.8%55th | 44.3%37th |
| Explosive play rateTexas Tech offense vs Cincinnati defense | 7.4%46th | 7.3%86th |
| Explosive play rateCincinnati offense vs Texas Tech defense | 6.3%50th | 8.1%33rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.0%94th-highest | 45.5%108th-highest |
On 3rd down Texas Tech converts 42.6% (50th) against a Cincinnati defense allowing 50.0% (124th).
On 3rd down Cincinnati converts 44.3% (37th) against a Texas Tech defense allowing 38.8% (55th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joey McGuire | Scott Satterfield |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 41–18 | 19–24 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 41–18 | 91–64 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mack Leftwich | Nic Cardwell / Pete Thomas |
| Defensive coordinator | Rob Greene / Shiel Wood | Nate Woody |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Texas Tech won 1 and Cincinnati 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Cincinnati 41, Texas Tech 44 Texas Tech won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Texas Tech Red Raiders team stats
- Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders (Oct 31)
- Arizona State Sun Devils 25, Texas Tech Red Raiders 53 (Oct 17)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 29, Colorado Buffaloes 7 (Oct 3)
Cincinnati Bearcats
- Cincinnati Bearcats team stats
- Utah Utes at Cincinnati Bearcats (Oct 31)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 7, Arizona Wildcats 34 (Oct 3)
- Kansas State Wildcats 26, Cincinnati Bearcats 31 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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