Michigan Wolverines vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Final — October 3, 2026
MICHOffense2026 regular season to dateMINN
MICHDefenseMINNMICHLast 10 gamesMINNRest & travelrest and travel
MICHRest & travelMINNAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Michigan (3-1) visited Minnesota (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET.
Michigan has the 56th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 17th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Minnesota has the 101st-ranked offense and the 48th-ranked defense. When Michigan has the ball, a 56th-ranked offense (+0.056 EPA per play) meets a 48th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed); when Minnesota has it, a 101st-ranked offense (−0.114) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.184 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Michigan offense is at 42.6% (75th) and the Minnesota offense at 40.5% (95th). Michigan scores 25.2 points per game (73rd) and allows 14.8 (14th); Minnesota scores 27.0 (68th) and allows 23.0 (48th).
Michigan is 3-1 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 20-19 loss to Iowa.
Michigan closed as a 6.5-point road favorite, with Minnesota getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 41.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Michigan -235, Minnesota +190) prices Michigan at 67% and Minnesota at 33%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Golden Gophers +6.5): Minnesota Golden Gophers covered.
- Combined score 34 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- Minnesota Golden Gophers closed at +190 on the moneyline (a 33% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Michigan Wolverines.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Michigan Wolverines 67%, Minnesota Golden Gophers 33%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 2:48 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 1st & 10 at MICH 23#5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #44 N.Staehling at MICH21 QB hurried by #0 J.Hill #44 N.Staehling return 79 yards to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:48 #99 T.But…Michigan Wolverines 48% → 79% (+30 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:22 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 4th & 15 at MICH 42#42 T.Weston punt 27 yards to the MICH15 muffed by #3 A.Marsh at MICH15 recovered by MINN #52 A.Soukup at MICH17, End Of PlayMinnesota Golden Gophers 16% → 28% (+12 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:59 — Michigan Wolverines ball, 2nd & 5 at MICH 28Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #5 A.West at MICH42 #5 A.West return 0 yards to the MICH42, out of bounds at MICH42Minnesota Golden Gophers 23% → 34% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:51 — Michigan Wolverines ball, 1st & 10 at MICH 25Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #4 Z.Harden at MICH35 QB hurried by #1 J.Howard #4 Z.Harden return 0 yards to the MICH35 (#9 C.Goodwin)Minnesota Golden Gophers 33% → 51% (+19 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:43 — Minnesota Golden Gophers ball, 1st & 10 at MICH 35#13 N.Jennings rush left for 31 yards gain to the MICH04 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNMinnesota Golden Gophers 51% → 62% (+11 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Minnesota Golden Gophers won after falling as low as 16% (Q3 7:22).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Minnesota Golden Gophers would win 86% of the time (Michigan Wolverines 14%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Golden Gophers. Here is where that came from.
| Michigan | Points added | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| -4.8 | Passingdropbacks | -0.4 |
| +0.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.0 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 3 plays | +6.4 |
| -10.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -15.2 |
| -4.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.7 |
| -1.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.4 |
| +1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 0 of 4 | -3.0 |
| -18.7 | All plays | -7.2 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.1 points to Minnesota Golden Gophers. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Michigan Wolverines closed as the market favourite at 67% and lost.
The line moved toward Michigan Wolverines before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Michigan -6.5 (-105)
Michigan -6.5 (-109)
Minnesota +182 34%
Minnesota +190 33%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts92
- Completion %62.0%127th
- Passing yards780135th
- Yards per attempt8.563rd
- TD–INT5–2
- Rushing yards194150th
- Season line45 carries, 194 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards39612th
- Season line20 catches, 396 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3154th
- Attempts132
- Completion %66.7%67th
- Passing yards95179th
- Yards per attempt7.2134th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards25183rd
- Season line34 carries, 251 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards28157th
- Season line24 catches, 281 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles28100th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Michigan | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMichigan offense vs Minnesota defense | 39.5%73rd | 38.5%56th |
| Early-down success rateMinnesota offense vs Michigan defense | 35.2%16th | 37.0%97th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan offense vs Minnesota defense | 42.2%55th | 32.1%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMinnesota offense vs Michigan defense | 36.5%51st | 35.1%95th |
| Explosive play rateMichigan offense vs Minnesota defense | 5.7%95th | 7.8%95th |
| Explosive play rateMinnesota offense vs Michigan defense | 4.2%11th | 6.5%82nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.2%110th-highest | 64.3%6th-highest |
On 3rd down Michigan converts 42.2% (55th) against a Minnesota defense allowing 32.1% (25th).
On 3rd down Minnesota converts 35.1% (95th) against a Michigan defense allowing 36.5% (51st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Michigan | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kyle Whittingham | P. J. Fleck |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 10th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–1 | 69–45 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 180–89 | 99–67 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jason Beck | Greg Harbaugh Jr. / Matt Simon |
| Defensive coordinator | Jay Hill | Danny Collins |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Michigan won 2 and Minnesota 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Minnesota 24, Michigan 27 Michigan won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | Michigan 52, Minnesota 10 Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Michigan Wolverines
- Michigan Wolverines team stats
- Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Oct 31)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Penn State Nittany Lions 18, Michigan Wolverines 21 (Oct 17)
Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Minnesota Golden Gophers team stats
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers (Oct 31)
- Iowa Hawkeyes 10, Minnesota Golden Gophers 13 (Oct 24)
- Minnesota Golden Gophers 13, Purdue Boilermakers 41 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
- Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24 (Oct 3)
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