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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Fresno State Bulldogs

5-3

Quarterback Jayden Mandal

Utah State Aggies

3-4

Quarterback McCae Hillstead

Saturday, November 7 · 9:30 PM ET

FRESOffense2026 regular season to dateUSU

41st+0.141

EPA/play

−0.02198th

75th46.0%

Success %

43.6%106th

47th28.9

PPG

16.9128th

FRESDefenseUSU

45th−0.009

EPA/play allowed

−0.03935th

37th44.1%

Success % allowed

43.9%33rd

32nd21.0

Opp PPG

20.930th

FRESRecent formUSU

Wvs Rice 38-24W@ Washington State 26-6Lvs Boise State 31-38L@ San Diego State 23-26Wvs Oregon State 38-22

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Troy 21-10L@ Boise State 18-37Wvs Washington State 17-16L@ Texas State 17-20Wvs Colorado State 31-14

5-3

Record

3-5

6-2

ATS

5-3

Over–under

1-7

FRESHome and roadseason to dateUSU

3-1

Home record

3-1

2-2

Road record

0-4

4-0

Home ATS

2-2

Road ATS

3-1

4-0

Home O/U

0-4

1-3

Road O/U

1-3

FRESLast 10 gamesUSU

Game by game

5-3

Last 8

3-5

+63

Net points

-40

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

FRESRest & travelUSU

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

545 mi876 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Maverik Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Fresno State (5-3) visits Utah State (3-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 9:30 PM ET.

Fresno State has the 41st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 45th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Utah State has the 98th-ranked offense and the 35th-ranked defense. When Fresno State has the ball, a 41st-ranked offense (+0.141 EPA per play) meets a 35th-ranked defense (−0.039 allowed); when Utah State has it, a 98th-ranked offense (−0.021) meets a 45th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Fresno State offense is at 46.0% (75th) and the Utah State offense at 43.6% (106th). Fresno State scores 28.9 points per game (47th) and allows 21.0 (32nd); Utah State scores 16.9 (128th) and allows 20.9 (30th).

Fresno State is 5-3 and 6-2 against the spread; its last game was a 38-22 win over Oregon State. Utah State is 3-5 and 5-3 against the spread; its last game was a 31-14 win over Colorado State.

Fresno State is a 2.5-point road favorite, with Utah State getting the points at home. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 42.5, up from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Fresno State -130, Utah State +110) prices Fresno State at 54% and Utah State at 46%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenUtah State +2.5 (-110)
Fresno State -2.5 (-110)

NowUtah State +2.5 (-110)
Fresno State -2.5 (-110)

Totalup 1

Open41.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now42.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenFresno State -130 54%
Utah State +110 46%

NowFresno State -130 54%
Utah State +110 46%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Fresno State -2.5+104Novig
Utah State +2.5-106Caesars
Over 42.5-108DraftKings
Under 42.5+101ProphetX
Fresno State-120FanDuel
Utah State+113Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Fresno State

QB · Jayden Mandal

Attempts212
Completion %63.2%98th
Passing yards1,595118th
Yards per attempt7.5108th
TD–INT10–2

Leading rusher (RB) · Bryson Donelson

Rushing yards407129th
Season line81 carries, 407 yds, 6 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Josiah Freeman

Receiving yards53363rd
Season line38 catches, 533 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · K'vion Thunderbird

Tackles6646th

Utah State

QB · McCae Hillstead

Attempts28
Completion %64.3%
Passing yards210
Yards per attempt7.5
TD–INT1–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Javen Jacobs

Rushing yards49180th
Season line98 carries, 491 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Eli Wood

Receiving yards47979th
Season line37 catches, 479 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Brevin Hamblin

Tackles6268th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Fresno State	Utah State
Early-down success rateFresno State offense vs Utah State defense	40.6%102nd	39.5%23rd
Early-down success rateUtah State offense vs Fresno State defense	41.8%51st	39.3%115th
3rd-down conversion rateFresno State offense vs Utah State defense	39.1%83rd	42.9%91st
3rd-down conversion rateUtah State offense vs Fresno State defense	36.2%36th	35.6%104th
Explosive play rateFresno State offense vs Utah State defense	7.4%45th	5.1%17th
Explosive play rateUtah State offense vs Fresno State defense	6.5%65th	6.3%86th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	49.1%79th-highest	52.1%54th-highest

On 3rd down Fresno State converts 39.1% (83rd) against a Utah State defense allowing 42.9% (91st).

On 3rd down Utah State converts 35.6% (104th) against a Fresno State defense allowing 36.2% (36th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Fresno State	Utah State
Head coach	Matt Entz	Bronco Mendenhall
Tenureat this school	2nd season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	14–7	9–12
Career recordas an FBS head coach	14–7	149–100
Offensive coordinator	Josh Davis	Robert Anae
Defensive coordinator	Nick Benedetto	Nick Howell

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Fresno State won 1 and Utah State 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 22, 2025	Utah State 28, Fresno State 17 Utah State won
Oct 13, 2023	Fresno State 37, Utah State 32 Fresno State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams