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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Vanderbilt Commodores

2-5

Quarterback Jared Curtis

Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-4

Quarterback AJ Swann

Saturday, November 7 · 4:15 PM ET

VANOffense2026 regular season to dateMSST

94th−0.002

EPA/play

+0.04578th

91st45.0%

Success %

47.1%65th

93rd22.0

PPG

26.661st

VANDefenseMSST

116th+0.178

EPA/play allowed

+0.12493rd

107th49.1%

Success % allowed

44.2%38th

115th33.3

Opp PPG

28.186th

VANRecent formMSST

L@ Auburn 15-21L@ Georgia 14-38Lvs Ole Miss 17-52Lvs Arkansas 21-31L@ Kentucky 17-34

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Missouri 31-24Lvs Alabama 23-56L@ LSU 0-31Lvs Oklahoma 15-23L@ Texas 3-31

3-5

Record

4-4

3-5

ATS

4-4

5-3

Over–under

3-5

VANHome and roadseason to dateMSST

3-2

Home record

2-2

0-3

Road record

2-2

1-4

Home ATS

2-2

2-1

Road ATS

2-2

4-1

Home O/U

2-2

1-2

Road O/U

1-3

VANLast 10 gamesMSST

Game by game

3-5

Last 8

4-4

-60

Net points

-12

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

VANRest & travelMSST

14 days

Days of rest

7 days

217 mi349 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Davis Wade Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Vanderbilt (2-5) visits Mississippi State (4-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 4:15 PM ET.

Vanderbilt has the 94th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 116th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has the 78th-ranked offense and the 93rd-ranked defense. When Vanderbilt has the ball, a 94th-ranked offense (−0.002 EPA per play) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.124 allowed); when Mississippi State has it, a 78th-ranked offense (+0.045) meets a 116th-ranked defense (+0.178 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Vanderbilt offense is at 45.0% (91st) and the Mississippi State offense at 47.1% (65th). Vanderbilt scores 22.0 points per game (93rd) and allows 33.3 (115th); Mississippi State scores 26.6 (61st) and allows 28.1 (86th).

Vanderbilt is 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; its last game was a 34-17 loss to Kentucky. Mississippi State is 4-4 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 31-3 loss to Texas.

Mississippi State is a 3-point favorite at home against Vanderbilt. The spread opened at Mississippi State -2. The total is 48.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Vanderbilt +130, Mississippi State -155) prices Vanderbilt at 42% and Mississippi State at 58%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenMississippi State -2 (-110)
Vanderbilt +2 (-110)

NowMississippi State -3 (-110)
Vanderbilt +3 (-109)

Totalno move

Open48.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now48.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenVanderbilt +104 47%
Mississippi State -125 53%

NowVanderbilt +130 42%
Mississippi State -155 58%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Vanderbilt +3-105BetMGM
Mississippi State -3-106Bally Bet
Over 48.5-102Novig
Under 48.5+100Novig
Vanderbilt+141Novig
Mississippi State-144Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Vanderbilt

QB · Jared Curtis

Attempts197
Completion %65.0%74th
Passing yards1,489141st
Yards per attempt7.6102nd
TD–INT8–8

Leading rusher (RB) · Sedrick Alexander

Rushing yards274243rd
Season line64 carries, 274 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Junior Sherrill

Receiving yards70620th
Season line49 catches, 706 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (S) · CJ Heard

Tackles6084th

Mississippi State

QB · AJ Swann

Attempts14
Completion %78.6%
Passing yards90
Yards per attempt6.4
TD–INT0–0

Leading rusher (RB) · Fluff Bothwell

Rushing yards56361st
Season line108 carries, 563 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Anthony Evans III

Receiving yards66628th
Season line56 catches, 666 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Tyler Lockhart

Tackles48225th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Vanderbilt	Mississippi State
Early-down success rateVanderbilt offense vs Mississippi State defense	41.1%95th	38.8%19th
Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs Vanderbilt defense	42.5%65th	44.0%50th
3rd-down conversion rateVanderbilt offense vs Mississippi State defense	41.0%60th	45.0%106th
3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs Vanderbilt defense	46.7%120th	42.0%54th
Explosive play rateVanderbilt offense vs Mississippi State defense	5.5%112th	6.9%75th
Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs Vanderbilt defense	6.5%64th	7.5%41st
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	56.4%18th-highest	53.0%46th-highest

On 3rd down Vanderbilt converts 41.0% (60th) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 45.0% (106th).

On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 42.0% (54th) against a Vanderbilt defense allowing 46.7% (120th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Vanderbilt	Mississippi State
Head coach	Clark Lea	Jeff Lebby
Tenureat this school	6th season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	29–40	11–22
Career recordas an FBS head coach	29–40	11–22
Offensive coordinator	Tim Beck	Jeff Lebby
Defensive coordinator	Steve Gregory	Zach Arnett / Matt Brock

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Vanderbilt won 0 and Mississippi State 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 23, 2021	Mississippi State 45, Vanderbilt 6 Mississippi State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams