Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026
MOSTOffense2026 regular season to dateFIU
MOSTDefenseFIUMOSTRecent formFIUMOSTHome and roadseason to dateFIUMOSTLast 10 gamesFIURest & travelrest and travel
MOSTRest & travelFIUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Missouri State (2-5) visits Florida International (2-5) on Saturday, November 7 at 4:00 PM ET.
Missouri State has the 83rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 77th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Florida International has the 117th-ranked offense and the 44th-ranked defense. When Missouri State has the ball, a 83rd-ranked offense (+0.023 EPA per play) meets a 44th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed); when Florida International has it, a 117th-ranked offense (−0.075) meets a 77th-ranked defense (+0.086 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Missouri State offense is at 44.4% (95th) and the Florida International offense at 43.8% (103rd). Missouri State scores 21.0 points per game (107th) and allows 33.3 (115th); Florida International scores 18.7 (118th) and allows 22.9 (42nd).
Missouri State is 3-5 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 24-3 win over Sam Houston. Florida International is 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; its last game was a 49-10 loss to Liberty.
Florida International is a 4.5-point favorite at home against Missouri State. The spread opened at Florida International -3.5. The total is 49.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Missouri State +170, Florida International -205) prices Missouri State at 36% and Florida International at 64%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Missouri State +3.5 (-110)
Missouri State +4.5 (-110)
Florida International -190 63%
Florida International -205 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 5
- Missouri State +4.5+102Novig
- Florida International -4.5-105Hard Rock
- Over 49.5+100Novig
- Under 49.5+101ProphetX
- Missouri State+178Novig
- Florida International-186Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts126
- Completion %67.5%36th
- Passing yards1,071207th
- Yards per attempt8.545th
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards272246th
- Season line67 carries, 272 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards8737th
- Season line41 catches, 873 yds, 8 TD
- Tackles862nd
- Attempts231
- Completion %59.7%
- Passing yards1,591
- Yards per attempt6.9
- TD–INT10–8
- Rushing yards435116th
- Season line94 carries, 435 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards59643rd
- Season line41 catches, 596 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles45275th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs Florida International defense | 41.4%88th | 43.0%73rd |
| Early-down success rateFlorida International offense vs Missouri State defense | 44.2%92nd | 40.4%103rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs Florida International defense | 36.7%97th | 32.1%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida International offense vs Missouri State defense | 46.6%119th | 44.6%36th |
| Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs Florida International defense | 7.9%29th | 5.8%40th |
| Explosive play rateFlorida International offense vs Missouri State defense | 7.7%99th | 5.6%109th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.6%26th-highest | 54.2%32nd-highest |
On 3rd down Missouri State converts 36.7% (97th) against a Florida International defense allowing 32.1% (11th).
On 3rd down Florida International converts 44.6% (36th) against a Missouri State defense allowing 46.6% (119th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Casey Woods | Willie Simmons |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–5 | 10–11 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 3–5 | 10–11 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mark Cala | Nick Coleman |
| Defensive coordinator | Jack Curtis | Jovan Dewitt |
Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Missouri State won 1 and Florida International 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Florida International 21, Missouri State 28 Missouri State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State Bears team stats
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 27)
- Missouri State Bears 38, Delaware Blue Hens 61 (Oct 20)
- Kennesaw State Owls 21, Missouri State Bears 24 (Oct 14)
Florida International Panthers
More NCAAF games on November 7, 2026
- Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears (Nov 7)
- Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (Nov 7)
- UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (Nov 7)
- Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers (Nov 7)
- Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange (Nov 7)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (Nov 7)
- North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies (Nov 7)
- BYU Cougars at Utah Utes (Nov 7)
- Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack (Nov 7)
- Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers (Nov 7)
- Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers (Nov 7)
- Old Dominion Monarchs at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Nov 7)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats (Nov 7)
- Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers (Nov 7)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results