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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Iowa State Cyclones

3-4

Quarterback Jaylen Raynor

Baylor Bears

4-3

Quarterback DJ Lagway

Saturday, November 7 · 12:00 PM ET

ISUOffense2026 regular season to dateBAY

42nd+0.140

EPA/play

−0.031105th

55th48.0%

Success %

42.8%114th

56th27.7

PPG

28.750th

ISUDefenseBAY

127th+0.228

EPA/play allowed

−0.1297th

89th48.1%

Success % allowed

42.4%20th

98th29.7

Opp PPG

17.017th

ISURecent formBAY

Lvs Utah 17-31Wvs West Virginia 45-42L@ BYU 10-24L@ Arizona 3-39Wvs Oklahoma State 51-49

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Colorado 23-13W@ Arizona State 55-19Lvs TCU 6-17L@ Kansas 24-25W@ UCF 41-9

4-4

Record

5-3

3-4-1

ATS

6-2

4-4

Over–under

3-5

ISUHome and roadseason to dateBAY

4-1

Home record

3-1

0-3

Road record

2-2

2-2-1

Home ATS

2-2

1-2

Road ATS

4-0

4-1

Home O/U

1-3

0-3

Road O/U

2-2

ISULast 10 gamesBAY

Game by game

4-4

Last 8

5-3

+14

Net points

+123

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

ISURest & travelBAY

7 days

Days of rest

8 days

747 mi1,203 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

McLane Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Iowa State (3-4) visits Baylor (4-3) on Saturday, November 7 at 12:00 PM ET.

Iowa State has the 42nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 127th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Baylor has the 105th-ranked offense and the 7th-ranked defense. When Iowa State has the ball, a 42nd-ranked offense (+0.140 EPA per play) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.129 allowed); when Baylor has it, a 105th-ranked offense (−0.031) meets a 127th-ranked defense (+0.228 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Iowa State offense is at 48.0% (55th) and the Baylor offense at 42.8% (114th). Iowa State scores 27.7 points per game (56th) and allows 29.7 (98th); Baylor scores 28.7 (50th) and allows 17.0 (17th).

Iowa State is 4-4 and 3-4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 51-49 win over Oklahoma State. Baylor is 5-3 and 6-2 against the spread; its last game was a 41-9 win over UCF.

Baylor is a 9.5-point favorite at home against Iowa State. The spread opened at Baylor -8.5. The total is 50.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Iowa State +290, Baylor -375) prices Iowa State at 25% and Baylor at 75%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenBaylor -8.5 (-108)
Iowa State +8.5 (-113)

NowBaylor -9.5 (-113)
Iowa State +9.5 (-105)

Totaldown 3

Open53.5 (o -113 / u -109)

Now50.5 (o -110 / u -109)

Moneyline

OpenIowa State +255 27%
Baylor -335 73%

NowIowa State +290 25%
Baylor -375 75%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Iowa State +9.5+101ProphetX
Baylor -9.5-106Novig
Over 50.5-104ProphetX
Under 50.5+100Novig
Iowa State+317Novig
Baylor-335Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Iowa State

QB · Jaylen Raynor

Attempts186
Completion %59.7%163rd
Passing yards1,416152nd
Yards per attempt7.695th
TD–INT10–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Aiden Flora

Rushing yards9377th
Season line131 carries, 937 yds, 8 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jamal Polite Jr.

Receiving yards286270th
Season line14 catches, 286 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Sullivan Schlimgen

Tackles7911th

Baylor

QB · DJ Lagway

Attempts230
Completion %52.2%
Passing yards1,544
Yards per attempt6.7
TD–INT13–4

Leading rusher (RB) · Dawson Pendergrass

Rushing yards338183rd
Season line95 carries, 338 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Gavin Freeman

Receiving yards79210th
Season line63 catches, 792 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Travion Barnes

Tackles55143rd

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Iowa State	Baylor
Early-down success rateIowa State offense vs Baylor defense	44.5%46th	40.8%36th
Early-down success rateBaylor offense vs Iowa State defense	43.8%85th	39.0%121st
3rd-down conversion rateIowa State offense vs Baylor defense	33.8%113th	34.3%22nd
3rd-down conversion rateBaylor offense vs Iowa State defense	42.3%88th	39.8%71st
Explosive play rateIowa State offense vs Baylor defense	8.1%25th	5.5%33rd
Explosive play rateBaylor offense vs Iowa State defense	8.0%108th	8.0%27th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	46.7%103rd-highest	54.5%27th-highest

On 3rd down Iowa State converts 33.8% (113th) against a Baylor defense allowing 34.3% (22nd).

On 3rd down Baylor converts 39.8% (71st) against a Iowa State defense allowing 42.3% (88th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Iowa State	Baylor
Head coach	Jimmy Rogers	Joe Klanderman (interim) (interim)
Tenureat this school	1st season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	4–4	1–0
Career recordas an FBS head coach	10–10	1–0
Offensive coordinator	Tyler Roehl	Jake Spavital
Defensive coordinator	Jesse Bobbit	Joe Klanderman

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Iowa State won 2 and Baylor 2.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 5, 2024	Baylor 21, Iowa State 43 Iowa State won
Oct 28, 2023	Iowa State 30, Baylor 18 Iowa State won
Sep 24, 2022	Baylor 31, Iowa State 24 Baylor won
Sep 25, 2021	Iowa State 29, Baylor 31 Baylor won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams