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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Michigan State Spartans

2-6

Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic

Michigan Wolverines

5-3

Quarterback Tommy Carr

Saturday, November 7 · 7:30 PM ET

MSUOffense2026 regular season to dateMICH

99th−0.022

EPA/play

+0.03580th

68th46.8%

Success %

48.5%41st

113th19.9

PPG

21.2106th

MSUDefenseMICH

90th+0.116

EPA/play allowed

−0.1416th

58th46.0%

Success % allowed

41.9%14th

67th25.8

Opp PPG

16.414th

MSURecent formMICH

Lvs Nebraska 13-31L@ Wisconsin 3-31Lvs Illinois 37-38Lvs Northwestern 21-24L@ UCLA 10-28

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs Iowa 19-20L@ Minnesota 14-20Wvs Penn State 21-18Lvs Indiana 6-13W@ Rutgers 28-21

2-6

Record

5-3

4-3-1

ATS

3-5

2-6

Over–under

2-6

MSUHome and roadseason to dateMICH

2-3

Home record

4-2

0-3

Road record

1-1

3-1-1

Home ATS

3-3

1-2

Road ATS

0-2

2-3

Home O/U

1-5

0-3

Road O/U

1-1

MSULast 10 gamesMICH

Game by game

2-6

Last 8

5-3

-47

Net points

+39

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

MSURest & travelMICH

14 days

Days of rest

7 days

49 mi79 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Michigan Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Michigan State (2-6) visits Michigan (5-3) on Saturday, November 7 at 7:30 PM ET.

Michigan State has the 99th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 90th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Michigan has the 80th-ranked offense and the 6th-ranked defense. When Michigan State has the ball, a 99th-ranked offense (−0.022 EPA per play) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.141 allowed); when Michigan has it, a 80th-ranked offense (+0.035) meets a 90th-ranked defense (+0.116 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Michigan State offense is at 46.8% (68th) and the Michigan offense at 48.5% (41st). Michigan State scores 19.9 points per game (113th) and allows 25.8 (67th); Michigan scores 21.2 (106th) and allows 16.4 (14th).

Michigan State is 2-6 and 4-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 28-10 loss to UCLA. Michigan is 5-3 and 3-5 against the spread; its last game was a 28-21 win over Rutgers.

Michigan is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Michigan State. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 39.5, down from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Michigan State +450, Michigan -600) prices Michigan State at 18% and Michigan at 82%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenMichigan -13.5 (-110)
Michigan State +13.5 (-110)

NowMichigan -13.5 (-110)
Michigan State +13.5 (-110)

Totaldown 1

Open40.5 (o -106 / u -114)

Now39.5 (o -110 / u -109)

Moneyline

OpenMichigan State +474 17%
Michigan -652 83%

NowMichigan State +450 18%
Michigan -600 82%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Michigan State +13.5+101ProphetX
Michigan -13.5-105theScore Bet
Over 39.5-110FanDuel
Under 39.5+106Novig
Michigan State+488Novig
Michigan-506Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Michigan State

QB · Alessio Milivojevic

Attempts185
Completion %65.4%67th
Passing yards1,263185th
Yards per attempt6.8170th
TD–INT7–3

Leading rusher (RB) · Jaziun Patterson

Rushing yards327196th
Season line76 carries, 327 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Chrishon McCray

Receiving yards289267th
Season line29 catches, 289 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Devin Vaught

Tackles52181st

Michigan

QB · Tommy Carr

Attempts55
Completion %72.7%
Passing yards442
Yards per attempt8.0
TD–INT2–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Jordan Marshall

Rushing yards319204th
Season line86 carries, 319 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · JJ Buchanan

Receiving yards61141st
Season line38 catches, 611 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Troy Bowles

Tackles57115th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Michigan State	Michigan
Early-down success rateMichigan State offense vs Michigan defense	42.2%78th	38.7%16th
Early-down success rateMichigan offense vs Michigan State defense	38.3%14th	43.3%61st
3rd-down conversion rateMichigan State offense vs Michigan defense	38.9%84th	34.7%25th
3rd-down conversion rateMichigan offense vs Michigan State defense	44.4%101st	44.7%35th
Explosive play rateMichigan State offense vs Michigan defense	3.8%135th	5.2%19th
Explosive play rateMichigan offense vs Michigan State defense	6.0%48th	4.4%132nd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	50.2%73rd-highest	43.3%120th-highest

On 3rd down Michigan State converts 38.9% (84th) against a Michigan defense allowing 34.7% (25th).

On 3rd down Michigan converts 44.7% (35th) against a Michigan State defense allowing 44.4% (101st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Michigan State	Michigan
Head coach	Pat Fitzgerald	Kyle Whittingham
Tenureat this school	1st season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	2–6	5–3
Career recordas an FBS head coach	112–107	182–91
Offensive coordinator	Nick Sheridan	Jason Beck
Defensive coordinator	Max Bullough / Joe Rossi	Jay Hill

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Michigan State won 1 and Michigan 4.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 25, 2025	Michigan 31, Michigan State 20 Michigan won
Oct 26, 2024	Michigan State 17, Michigan 24 Michigan won
Oct 21, 2023	Michigan 49, Michigan State 0 Michigan won
Oct 29, 2022	Michigan State 7, Michigan 29 Michigan won
Oct 30, 2021	Michigan 33, Michigan State 37 Michigan State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams