Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026
LIBOffense2026 regular season to dateNMSU
LIBDefenseNMSULIBRecent formNMSULIBHome and roadseason to dateNMSULIBLast 10 gamesNMSURest & travelrest and travel
LIBRest & travelNMSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Liberty (6-1) visits New Mexico State (2-5) on Saturday, November 7 at 8:00 PM ET.
Liberty has the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 31st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, New Mexico State has the 131st-ranked offense and the 37th-ranked defense. When Liberty has the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (+0.188 EPA per play) meets a 37th-ranked defense (−0.034 allowed); when New Mexico State has it, a 131st-ranked offense (−0.129) meets a 31st-ranked defense (−0.048 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Liberty offense is at 53.9% (6th) and the New Mexico State offense at 40.1% (133rd). Liberty scores 35.1 points per game (17th) and allows 12.1 (1st); New Mexico State scores 17.3 (127th) and allows 26.9 (76th).
Liberty is 7-1 and 6-2 against the spread; its last game was a 49-10 win over Florida International. New Mexico State is 3-5; its last game was a 24-0 loss to Jacksonville State.
Liberty is a 17.5-point road favorite, with New Mexico State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Liberty -13.5. The total is 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Liberty -900, New Mexico State +575) prices Liberty at 86% and New Mexico State at 14%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Liberty -13.5 (-110)
Liberty -17.5 (-105)
New Mexico State +380 20%
New Mexico State +575 14%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 5
- Liberty -17.5+114ProphetX
- New Mexico State +17.5-110Hard Rock
- Over 46.5-101ProphetX
- Under 46.5-101ProphetX
- Liberty-700ProphetX
- New Mexico State+660FanDuel
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts152
- Completion %63.2%98th
- Passing yards1,453146th
- Yards per attempt9.611th
- TD–INT10–1
- Rushing yards60349th
- Season line87 carries, 603 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards62637th
- Season line29 catches, 626 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles43310th
- Attempts106
- Completion %56.6%
- Passing yards547
- Yards per attempt5.2
- TD–INT5–4
- Rushing yards88913th
- Season line139 carries, 889 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards307248th
- Season line23 catches, 307 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles58104th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLiberty offense vs New Mexico State defense | 50.7%2nd | 40.1%29th |
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico State offense vs Liberty defense | 46.1%112th | 35.9%133rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLiberty offense vs New Mexico State defense | 47.7%23rd | 41.1%73rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico State offense vs Liberty defense | 28.4%3rd | 37.2%94th |
| Explosive play rateLiberty offense vs New Mexico State defense | 7.8%33rd | 6.9%77th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico State offense vs Liberty defense | 5.5%32nd | 6.6%74th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 37.2%131st-highest | 51.6%57th-highest |
On 3rd down Liberty converts 47.7% (23rd) against a New Mexico State defense allowing 41.1% (73rd).
On 3rd down New Mexico State converts 37.2% (94th) against a Liberty defense allowing 28.4% (3rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jamey Chadwell | Tony Sanchez |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 32–14 | 10–22 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 71–36 | 30–62 |
| Offensive coordinator | Newland Isaac | David Yost |
| Defensive coordinator | Skylor Magee | Joe Morris |
Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Liberty won 4 and New Mexico State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | New Mexico State 27, Liberty 30 Liberty won | ||
| Sep 7, 2024 | Liberty 30, New Mexico State 24 Liberty won | ||
| Dec 1, 2023 | New Mexico State 35, Liberty 49 Liberty won | ||
| Sep 9, 2023 | New Mexico State 17, Liberty 33 Liberty won | ||
| Nov 26, 2022 | New Mexico State 49, Liberty 14 New Mexico State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Liberty Flames
- Liberty Flames team stats
- Florida International Panthers 10, Liberty Flames 49 (Oct 31)
- Liberty Flames 34, Kennesaw State Owls 6 (Oct 22)
- Sam Houston State Bearkats 3, Liberty Flames 35 (Oct 8)
New Mexico State Aggies
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