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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Air Force Falcons

5-2

Quarterback Howard Fisher IV

Army Black Knights

4-3

Quarterback Cale Hellums

Saturday, November 7 · 7:30 PM ET

AFOffense2026 regular season to dateARMY

8th+0.263

EPA/play

+0.20019th

4th54.1%

Success %

54.2%3rd

51st28.6

PPG

30.041st

AFDefenseARMY

124th+0.199

EPA/play allowed

+0.328136th

119th50.4%

Success % allowed

49.4%113th

58th24.6

Opp PPG

28.788th

AFRecent formARMY

Wvs Navy 14-9W@ Northern Illinois 28-7Wvs UNLV 41-31L@ Wyoming 14-28Wvs UConn 35-26

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Louisiana Tech 29-31Wvs Tulane 20-17Wvs Florida Atlantic 56-24W@ Tulsa 38-35L@ Memphis 22-49

6-2

Record

5-3

ATS

3-4-1

4-4

Over–under

6-2

AFHome and roadseason to dateARMY

4-1

Home record

3-1

2-1

Road record

2-2

4-1

Home ATS

2-2

1-2

Road ATS

1-2-1

3-2

Home O/U

3-1

1-2

Road O/U

3-1

AFLast 10 gamesARMY

Game by game

6-2

Last 8

5-3

+62

Net points

+65

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

AFRest & travelARMY

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

1,629 mi2,622 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

+2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Michie Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Air Force (5-2) visits Army (4-3) on Saturday, November 7 at 7:30 PM ET.

Air Force has the 8th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 124th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Army has the 19th-ranked offense and the 136th-ranked defense. When Air Force has the ball, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.263 EPA per play) meets a 136th-ranked defense (+0.328 allowed); when Army has it, a 19th-ranked offense (+0.200) meets a 124th-ranked defense (+0.199 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Air Force offense is at 54.1% (4th) and the Army offense at 54.2% (3rd). Air Force scores 28.6 points per game (51st) and allows 24.6 (58th); Army scores 30.0 (41st) and allows 28.7 (88th).

Air Force is 6-2 and 5-3 against the spread; its last game was a 35-26 win over UConn. Army is 5-3 and 3-4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 49-22 loss to Memphis.

Army is a 3-point favorite at home against Air Force. The spread opened at Army -5.5. The total is 45.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Air Force +135, Army -160) prices Air Force at 41% and Army at 59%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 2.5

OpenArmy -5.5 (-107)
Air Force +5.5 (-112)

NowArmy -3 (-115)
Air Force +3 (-105)

Totaldown 4

Open49.5 (o -112 / u -109)

Now45.5 (o -106 / u -113)

Moneyline

OpenAir Force +172 35%
Army -214 65%

NowAir Force +135 41%
Army -160 59%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Air Force +3-105DraftKings
Army -3-115DraftKings
Over 45.5+102DraftKings
Under 45.5-110Hard Rock
Air Force+141Caesars
Army-150Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Air Force

QB · Howard Fisher IV

Attempts8
Completion %37.5%
Passing yards36
Yards per attempt4.5
TD–INT0–0

Leading rusher (QB) · Evan Medders

Rushing yards49081st
Season line73 carries, 490 yds, 6 TD

Leading receiver (TE) · Simon Kibbee

Receiving yards135610th
Season line8 catches, 135 yds

Leading tackler (LB) · Blake Fletcher

Tackles7911th

Army

QB · Cale Hellums

Attempts76
Completion %56.6%203rd
Passing yards462262nd
Yards per attempt6.1228th
TD–INT4–2

Leading rusher (QB) · Cale Hellums

Rushing yards87414th
Season line172 carries, 874 yds, 17 TD

Leading receiver (OL) · Brady Anderson

Receiving yards163529th
Season line10 catches, 163 yds

Leading tackler (LB) · Elijah Walton

Tackles55143rd

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Air Force	Army
Early-down success rateAir Force offense vs Army defense	46.7%19th	44.3%94th
Early-down success rateArmy offense vs Air Force defense	46.2%114th	48.2%11th
3rd-down conversion rateAir Force offense vs Army defense	53.5%6th	53.5%136th
3rd-down conversion rateArmy offense vs Air Force defense	38.7%54th	49.4%16th
Explosive play rateAir Force offense vs Army defense	5.0%127th	9.0%126th
Explosive play rateArmy offense vs Air Force defense	7.7%100th	5.7%107th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	13.7%138th-highest	17.0%137th-highest

On 3rd down Air Force converts 53.5% (6th) against a Army defense allowing 53.5% (136th).

On 3rd down Army converts 49.4% (16th) against a Air Force defense allowing 38.7% (54th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Air Force	Army
Head coach	Troy Calhoun	Jeff Monken
Tenureat this school	20th season	13th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	145–99	94–66
Career recordas an FBS head coach	145–99	94–66
Offensive coordinator	Mike Thiessen	Cody Worley
Defensive coordinator	Steve Russ	Daryl Dixon / Scot Sloan

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Air Force won 1 and Army 4.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 1, 2025	Army 20, Air Force 17 Army won
Nov 2, 2024	Air Force 3, Army 20 Army won
Nov 4, 2023 neutral	Army 23, Air Force 3 Army won
Nov 5, 2022 neutral	Air Force 13, Army 7 Air Force won
Nov 6, 2021 neutral	Army 21, Air Force 14 Army won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams