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NCAAF · November 7, 2026

North Carolina Tar Heels vs UConn Huskies Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

North Carolina Tar Heels

3-4

Quarterback Billy Edwards

UConn Huskies

3-4

Quarterback Kalieb Osborne

Saturday, November 7 · 12:00 PM ET

UNCOffense2026 regular season to dateCONN

57th+0.083

EPA/play

+0.20118th

49th48.3%

Success %

47.4%59th

75th24.4

PPG

31.334th

UNCDefenseCONN

73rd+0.080

EPA/play allowed

+0.155106th

117th50.3%

Success % allowed

46.7%65th

68th25.9

Opp PPG

27.982nd

UNCRecent formCONN

Lvs Notre Dame 26-37W@ Pittsburgh 21-17W@ Duke 24-20Lvs Syracuse 30-31Lvs Miami 35-38

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Miami (OH) 21-24Lvs Syracuse 41-42W@ Temple 34-20Wvs Massachusetts 35-16L@ Air Force 26-35

4-4

Record

4-4

—

ATS

5-3

—

Over–under

4-4

UNCHome and roadseason to dateCONN

1-3

Home record

2-2

3-1

Road record

2-2

—

Home ATS

3-1

—

Road ATS

2-2

—

Home O/U

2-2

—

Road O/U

2-2

UNCLast 10 gamesCONN

Game by game

4-4

Last 8

4-4

+22

Net points

+73

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

UNCRest & travelCONN

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

532 mi856 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Pratt & Whitney Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

North Carolina (3-4) visits UConn (3-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 12:00 PM ET.

North Carolina has the 57th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 73rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UConn has the 18th-ranked offense and the 106th-ranked defense. When North Carolina has the ball, a 57th-ranked offense (+0.083 EPA per play) meets a 106th-ranked defense (+0.155 allowed); when UConn has it, a 18th-ranked offense (+0.201) meets a 73rd-ranked defense (+0.080 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Carolina offense is at 48.3% (49th) and the UConn offense at 47.4% (59th). North Carolina scores 24.4 points per game (75th) and allows 25.9 (68th); UConn scores 31.3 (34th) and allows 27.9 (82nd).

North Carolina is 4-4; its last game was a 38-35 loss to Miami. UConn is 4-4 and 5-3 against the spread; its last game was a 35-26 loss to Air Force.

North Carolina is a 6.5-point road favorite, with UConn getting the points at home. The spread opened at North Carolina -10. The total is 54.5, up from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (North Carolina -275, UConn +215) prices North Carolina at 70% and UConn at 30%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 3.5

OpenUConn +10 (-115)
North Carolina -10 (-105)

NowUConn +6.5 (-105)
North Carolina -6.5 (-117)

Totalup 3

Open51.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now54.5 (o -112 / u -106)

Moneyline

OpenNorth Carolina -375 75%
UConn +290 25%

NowNorth Carolina -275 70%
UConn +215 30%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

North Carolina -6.5-113Novig
UConn +6.5+111Novig
Over 54.5-108Caesars
Under 54.5+105ProphetX
North Carolina-245Novig
UConn+233Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

North Carolina

QB · Billy Edwards

Attempts235
Completion %63.4%97th
Passing yards1,87164th
Yards per attempt8.075th
TD–INT15–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Benjamin Hall

Rushing yards296220th
Season line60 carries, 296 yds

Leading receiver (WR) · Jordan Shipp

Receiving yards58747th
Season line45 catches, 587 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Derek McDonald

Tackles827th

UConn

QB · Kalieb Osborne

Attempts215
Completion %60.0%160th
Passing yards1,85766th
Yards per attempt8.638th
TD–INT14–2

Leading rusher (RB) · Cyncir Bowers

Rushing yards57159th
Season line84 carries, 571 yds, 7 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Shamar Porter

Receiving yards308243rd
Season line16 catches, 308 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · John Lista

Tackles58104th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	North Carolina	UConn
Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs UConn defense	45.0%41st	42.2%61st
Early-down success rateUConn offense vs North Carolina defense	47.1%124th	44.1%49th
3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs UConn defense	45.9%28th	39.3%60th
3rd-down conversion rateUConn offense vs North Carolina defense	42.9%91st	40.5%63rd
Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs UConn defense	5.3%117th	6.1%53rd
Explosive play rateUConn offense vs North Carolina defense	5.3%24th	10.1%3rd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	54.8%24th-highest	50.4%72nd-highest

On 3rd down North Carolina converts 45.9% (28th) against a UConn defense allowing 39.3% (60th).

On 3rd down UConn converts 40.5% (63rd) against a North Carolina defense allowing 42.9% (91st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	North Carolina	UConn
Head coach	Bill Belichick	Jason Candle
Tenureat this school	2nd season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	8–12	4–4
Career recordas an FBS head coach	8–12	85–48
Offensive coordinator	Bobby Petrino	Marquel Blackwell / Nunzio Campanile
Defensive coordinator	Stephen Belichick	Ryan Manalac

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: North Carolina won 0 and UConn 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Dec 28, 2024 bowl	UConn 27, North Carolina 14 UConn won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams