Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026
DUKEOffense2026 regular season to dateNCSU
DUKEDefenseNCSUDUKERecent formNCSUDUKEHome and roadseason to dateNCSUDUKELast 10 gamesNCSURest & travelrest and travel
DUKERest & travelNCSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Duke (5-2) visits NC State (3-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 12:30 PM ET.
Duke has the 60th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 48th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, NC State has the 35th-ranked offense and the 86th-ranked defense. When Duke has the ball, a 60th-ranked offense (+0.076 EPA per play) meets a 86th-ranked defense (+0.102 allowed); when NC State has it, a 35th-ranked offense (+0.155) meets a 48th-ranked defense (−0.004 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Duke offense is at 45.0% (89th) and the NC State offense at 50.7% (23rd). Duke scores 27.7 points per game (56th) and allows 15.3 (10th); NC State scores 26.3 (64th) and allows 29.6 (96th).
Duke is 6-2 and 6-2 against the spread; its last game was a 47-2 win over Boston College. NC State is 4-4; its last game was a 31-10 win over California.
Duke is a 4.5-point road favorite, with NC State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Duke -5.5. The total is 51.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Duke -190, NC State +155) prices Duke at 63% and NC State at 37%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Duke -5.5 (-110)
Duke -4.5 (-109)
NC State +164 36%
NC State +155 37%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 5
- Duke -4.5+100Novig
- NC State +4.5-102Novig
- Over 51.5-105theScore Bet
- Under 51.5+104ProphetX
- Duke-185theScore Bet
- NC State+176ProphetX
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts215
- Completion %61.9%129th
- Passing yards1,641109th
- Yards per attempt7.694th
- TD–INT9–3
- Rushing yards9725th
- Season line173 carries, 972 yds, 14 TD
- Receiving yards308243rd
- Season line22 catches, 308 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles45275th
- Attempts244
- Completion %63.9%86th
- Passing yards1,95552nd
- Yards per attempt8.071st
- TD–INT13–4
- Rushing yards358166th
- Season line62 carries, 358 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards45696th
- Season line30 catches, 456 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles7616th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Duke | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDuke offense vs NC State defense | 41.1%94th | 47.0%121st |
| Early-down success rateNC State offense vs Duke defense | 42.4%63rd | 43.4%60th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDuke offense vs NC State defense | 43.2%44th | 38.6%52nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNC State offense vs Duke defense | 29.6%5th | 51.0%13th |
| Explosive play rateDuke offense vs NC State defense | 7.9%30th | 7.8%101st |
| Explosive play rateNC State offense vs Duke defense | 5.1%16th | 6.1%94th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 47.7%94th-highest | 50.6%66th-highest |
On 3rd down Duke converts 43.2% (44th) against a NC State defense allowing 38.6% (52nd).
On 3rd down NC State converts 51.0% (13th) against a Duke defense allowing 29.6% (5th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Duke | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Manny Diaz | Todd Goebbel (interim) (interim) |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 24–11 | 1–0 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 45–26 | 1–0 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jonathan Brewer | Kurt Roper |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Patke | D. J. Eliot / Charlton Warren |
Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Duke won 3 and NC State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | NC State 33, Duke 45 Duke won | ||
| Nov 9, 2024 | Duke 29, NC State 19 Duke won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | NC State 3, Duke 24 Duke won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Duke Blue Devils
- Duke Blue Devils team stats
- Boston College Eagles 2, Duke Blue Devils 47 (Oct 31)
- Duke Blue Devils 19, Virginia Cavaliers 16 (Oct 23)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 24, Duke Blue Devils 20 (Oct 17)
NC State Wolfpack
More NCAAF games on November 7, 2026
- Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears (Nov 7)
- Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (Nov 7)
- UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (Nov 7)
- Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers (Nov 7)
- Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange (Nov 7)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (Nov 7)
- North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies (Nov 7)
- BYU Cougars at Utah Utes (Nov 7)
- Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers (Nov 7)
- Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers (Nov 7)
- Old Dominion Monarchs at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Nov 7)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats (Nov 7)
- Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers (Nov 7)
- UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves (Nov 7)
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