Home › Game Previews › NCAAF › November 2026 › Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

NCAAF · November 7, 2026

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

2-5

Quarterback Brock Glenn

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

3-4

Quarterback Roman Gagliano

Saturday, November 7 · 3:30 PM ET

WKUOffense2026 regular season to dateMTSU

130th−0.126

EPA/play

−0.031106th

99th44.2%

Success %

45.4%85th

128th16.9

PPG

21.996th

WKUDefenseMTSU

99th+0.134

EPA/play allowed

+0.10085th

94th48.5%

Success % allowed

48.7%99th

120th34.6

Opp PPG

31.9108th

WKURecent formMTSU

Wvs Mercyhurst 52-7L@ New Mexico State 13-34Wvs Missouri State 34-13W@ Sam Houston 16-3Lvs Delaware 21-35

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Jacksonville State 13-23L@ Kansas 0-55Wvs Delaware 33-30W@ Florida International 26-23Lvs Kennesaw State 28-44

3-5

Record

4-4

ATS

5-3

4-4

Over–under

4-4

WKUHome and roadseason to dateMTSU

2-1

Home record

3-1

1-4

Road record

1-3

2-1

Home ATS

3-1

2-3

Road ATS

2-2

2-1

Home O/U

2-2

2-3

Road O/U

2-2

WKULast 10 gamesMTSU

Game by game

3-5

Last 8

4-4

-79

Net points

-46

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

WKURest & travelMTSU

11 days

Days of rest

10 days

78 mi126 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Western Kentucky (2-5) visits Middle Tennessee (3-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 3:30 PM ET.

Western Kentucky has the 130th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 99th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has the 106th-ranked offense and the 85th-ranked defense. When Western Kentucky has the ball, a 130th-ranked offense (−0.126 EPA per play) meets a 85th-ranked defense (+0.100 allowed); when Middle Tennessee has it, a 106th-ranked offense (−0.031) meets a 99th-ranked defense (+0.134 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Western Kentucky offense is at 44.2% (99th) and the Middle Tennessee offense at 45.4% (85th). Western Kentucky scores 16.9 points per game (128th) and allows 34.6 (120th); Middle Tennessee scores 21.9 (96th) and allows 31.9 (108th).

Western Kentucky is 3-5 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 35-21 loss to Delaware. Middle Tennessee is 4-4 and 5-3 against the spread; its last game was a 44-28 loss to Kennesaw State.

Western Kentucky is a 1.5-point road favorite, with Middle Tennessee getting the points at home. The spread opened with Middle Tennessee favored by 1.5. The total is 53.5, up from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Western Kentucky -118, Middle Tennessee -102) prices Western Kentucky at 52% and Middle Tennessee at 48%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadfavorite flipped

OpenMiddle Tennessee -1.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky +1.5 (-110)

NowMiddle Tennessee +1.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky -1.5 (-108)

Totalup 1

Open52.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now53.5 (o -109 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenWestern Kentucky -102 48%
Middle Tennessee -118 52%

NowWestern Kentucky -118 52%
Middle Tennessee -102 48%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

Western Kentucky -1.5-105Hard Rock
Middle Tennessee +1.5-102ProphetX
Over 53.5+101ProphetX
Under 53.5-107ProphetX
Western Kentucky-112ProphetX
Middle Tennessee+113Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

Western Kentucky

QB · Brock Glenn

Attempts165
Completion %55.8%209th
Passing yards887224th
Yards per attempt5.4254th
TD–INT6–4

Leading rusher (QB) · Brock Glenn

Rushing yards451104th
Season line91 carries, 451 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jonathan Stafford Jr.

Receiving yards433115th
Season line46 catches, 433 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Jaylen Lewis

Tackles6268th

Middle Tennessee

QB · Roman Gagliano

Attempts258
Completion %57.0%198th
Passing yards1,587121st
Yards per attempt6.2223rd
TD–INT12–4

Leading rusher (RB) · Antonio Martin

Rushing yards58654th
Season line112 carries, 586 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Cam'ron Lacy

Receiving yards51068th
Season line45 catches, 510 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Korey Smith

Tackles7326th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee
Early-down success rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	41.0%97th	47.1%125th
Early-down success rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Western Kentucky defense	46.8%120th	42.8%70th
3rd-down conversion rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	39.8%72nd	38.2%50th
3rd-down conversion rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Western Kentucky defense	37.0%43rd	33.3%115th
Explosive play rateWestern Kentucky offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	7.0%60th	8.0%107th
Explosive play rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Western Kentucky defense	9.4%133rd	4.8%128th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	54.2%30th-highest	54.3%29th-highest

On 3rd down Western Kentucky converts 39.8% (72nd) against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 38.2% (50th).

On 3rd down Middle Tennessee converts 33.3% (115th) against a Western Kentucky defense allowing 37.0% (43rd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee
Head coach	Tyson Helton	Derek Mason
Tenureat this school	8th season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	61–40	10–22
Career recordas an FBS head coach	61–40	37–77
Offensive coordinator	Joe Bernardi / Bodie Reeder	Anthony Scelfo
Defensive coordinator	Davis Merritt	Brian Stewart

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Western Kentucky won 5 and Middle Tennessee 0.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 15, 2025	Middle Tennessee 26, Western Kentucky 42 Western Kentucky won
Sep 14, 2024	Western Kentucky 49, Middle Tennessee 21 Western Kentucky won
Sep 28, 2023	Middle Tennessee 10, Western Kentucky 31 Western Kentucky won
Oct 15, 2022	Western Kentucky 35, Middle Tennessee 17 Western Kentucky won
Nov 6, 2021	Middle Tennessee 21, Western Kentucky 48 Western Kentucky won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams