Home › Game Previews › NCAAF › November 2026 › UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

NCAAF · November 7, 2026

UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview & Odds — November 7, 2026

UL Monroe Warhawks

1-6

Quarterback Aidan Armenta

Arkansas State Red Wolves

3-4

Quarterback Trey Owens

Saturday, November 7 · 3:00 PM ET

ULMOffense2026 regular season to dateARST

108th−0.037

EPA/play

+0.14339th

124th41.8%

Success %

49.0%34th

123rd18.1

PPG

25.471st

ULMDefenseARST

113th+0.173

EPA/play allowed

+0.239129th

81st47.7%

Success % allowed

51.1%123rd

131st36.9

Opp PPG

30.1103rd

ULMRecent formARST

Lvs Florida Atlantic 17-45L@ South Alabama 35-52Lvs Louisiana Tech 0-24W@ Troy 21-14Lvs Southern Miss 21-35

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Kennesaw State 17-14L@ Louisiana 20-23Lvs South Alabama 49-56W@ Southern Miss 23-13Wvs Georgia State 38-32

1-7

Record

4-4

2-6

ATS

4-4

5-3

Over–under

4-4

ULMHome and roadseason to dateARST

0-4

Home record

3-1

1-3

Road record

1-3

0-4

Home ATS

2-2

Road ATS

2-2

3-1

Home O/U

3-1

2-2

Road O/U

1-3

ULMLast 10 gamesARST

Game by game

1-7

Last 8

4-4

-134

Net points

+12

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

ULMRest & travelARST

7 days

Days of rest

14 days

243 mi391 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Centennial Bank Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

UL Monroe (1-6) visits Arkansas State (3-4) on Saturday, November 7 at 3:00 PM ET.

UL Monroe has the 108th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 113th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arkansas State has the 39th-ranked offense and the 129th-ranked defense. When UL Monroe has the ball, a 108th-ranked offense (−0.037 EPA per play) meets a 129th-ranked defense (+0.239 allowed); when Arkansas State has it, a 39th-ranked offense (+0.143) meets a 113th-ranked defense (+0.173 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UL Monroe offense is at 41.8% (124th) and the Arkansas State offense at 49.0% (34th). UL Monroe scores 18.1 points per game (123rd) and allows 36.9 (131st); Arkansas State scores 25.4 (71st) and allows 30.1 (103rd).

UL Monroe is 1-7 and 2-6 against the spread; its last game was a 35-21 loss to Southern Miss. Arkansas State is 4-4 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 38-32 win over Georgia State.

Arkansas State is a 14.5-point favorite at home against UL Monroe. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 53.5, up from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (UL Monroe +500, Arkansas State -750) prices UL Monroe at 16% and Arkansas State at 84%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenArkansas State -14.5 (-110)
UL Monroe +14.5 (-110)

NowArkansas State -14.5 (-110)
UL Monroe +14.5 (-110)

Totalup 2

Open51.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now53.5 (o -109 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenUL Monroe +500 16%
Arkansas State -690 84%

NowUL Monroe +500 16%
Arkansas State -750 84%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 5

UL Monroe +14.5-101ProphetX
Arkansas State -14.5-105theScore Bet
Over 53.5-102ProphetX
Under 53.5-104Novig
UL Monroe+567Novig
Arkansas State-590ProphetX

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

UL Monroe

QB · Aidan Armenta

Attempts187
Completion %61.0%140th
Passing yards1,316173rd
Yards per attempt7.0149th
TD–INT9–3

Leading rusher (QB) · Austin Carlisle

Rushing yards252274th
Season line46 carries, 252 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Marcellus Jackson

Receiving yards348189th
Season line33 catches, 348 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Noah Flemmings

Tackles7520th

Arkansas State

QB · Trey Owens

Attempts233
Completion %68.2%28th
Passing yards1,94053rd
Yards per attempt8.353rd
TD–INT11–6

Leading rusher (RB) · Solomon Baggett

Rushing yards306214th
Season line68 carries, 306 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jaylen Bonelli

Receiving yards45299th
Season line31 catches, 452 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Joe Drew

Tackles7423rd

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	UL Monroe	Arkansas State
Early-down success rateUL Monroe offense vs Arkansas State defense	39.4%114th	47.0%122nd
Early-down success rateArkansas State offense vs UL Monroe defense	43.5%78th	45.3%34th
3rd-down conversion rateUL Monroe offense vs Arkansas State defense	28.9%133rd	43.2%96th
3rd-down conversion rateArkansas State offense vs UL Monroe defense	41.5%78th	40.0%69th
Explosive play rateUL Monroe offense vs Arkansas State defense	3.2%137th	8.5%121st
Explosive play rateArkansas State offense vs UL Monroe defense	7.4%89th	9.0%10th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	50.9%62nd-highest	52.4%51st-highest

On 3rd down UL Monroe converts 28.9% (133rd) against a Arkansas State defense allowing 43.2% (96th).

On 3rd down Arkansas State converts 40.0% (69th) against a UL Monroe defense allowing 41.5% (78th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	UL Monroe	Arkansas State
Head coach	Bryant Vincent	Butch Jones
Tenureat this school	3rd season	6th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	9–23	30–41
Career recordas an FBS head coach	16–29	114–95
Offensive coordinator	Jesse Montalto	Garrett Altman
Defensive coordinator	Troy Reffett	Griffin McCarley

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: UL Monroe won 1 and Arkansas State 4.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Sep 27, 2025	Arkansas State 16, UL Monroe 28 UL Monroe won
Nov 23, 2024	UL Monroe 21, Arkansas State 28 Arkansas State won
Oct 28, 2023	Arkansas State 34, UL Monroe 24 Arkansas State won
Oct 1, 2022	UL Monroe 28, Arkansas State 45 Arkansas State won
Nov 13, 2021	Arkansas State 27, UL Monroe 24 Arkansas State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams