Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles Final — October 3, 2026
UVAOffense2026 regular season to dateFSU
UVADefenseFSUUVALast 10 gamesFSURest & travelrest and travel
UVARest & travelFSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Virginia (2-1) visited Florida State (1-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Virginia has the 22nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 50th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Florida State has the 36th-ranked offense and the 115th-ranked defense. When Virginia has the ball, a 22nd-ranked offense (+0.197 EPA per play) meets a 115th-ranked defense (+0.208 allowed); when Florida State has it, a 36th-ranked offense (+0.129) meets a 50th-ranked defense (−0.049 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Virginia offense is at 47.4% (26th) and the Florida State offense at 40.0% (104th). Virginia scores 34.3 points per game (24th) and allows 16.3 (19th); Florida State scores 31.3 (41st) and allows 31.3 (97th).
Virginia closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Florida State getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 51.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Virginia -110, Florida State -112) prices Virginia at 50% and Florida State at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Virginia Cavaliers 7, Florida State Seminoles 38
Florida State Seminoles won by 31.
- Against the closing spread (Florida State Seminoles +1.5): Florida State Seminoles covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Florida State Seminoles closed at -112 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Florida State Seminoles.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Virginia Cavaliers 50%, Florida State Seminoles 50%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:04 — Virginia Cavaliers ball, 2nd & 8 at FSU 13No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula pass complete short left to #18 D.Martin caught at FSU10, for 13 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:04, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettrid…Virginia Cavaliers 63% → 69% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 12:27 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 2nd & 11 at FSU 48No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #5 Q.Wisner caught at FSU47, for 48 yards to the UVA04 (#20 O.Agard), 1ST DOWNFlorida State Seminoles 30% → 42% (+12 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:26 — Virginia Cavaliers ball, 3rd & 15 at UVA 20No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Pribula sacked for loss of 14 yards to the UVA06 (#3 M.Desir)Florida State Seminoles 51% → 58% (+7 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:28 — Florida State Seminoles ball, 1st & 20 at UVA 39No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UVA48 (#55 A.Britton)Virginia Cavaliers 23% → 29% (+5 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:45 — Virginia Cavaliers ball, 4th & 1 at FSU 22No Huddle-Shotgun #0 X.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU22 (#10 C.Jones), TURNOVER ON DOWNSFlorida State Seminoles 76% → 83% (+7 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
Florida State Seminoles won after falling as low as 24% (Q1 2:36).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Florida State Seminoles would win >99% of the time (Virginia Cavaliers <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Florida State Seminoles. Here is where that came from.
| Virginia | Points added | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| -20.1 | Passingdropbacks | -6.5 |
| -8.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.5 |
| +1.4 | Explosive plays1 plays · 5 plays | +12.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.2 |
| +4.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.2 |
| +7.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.7 |
| -3.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 4 of 4 | +7.3 |
| -18.5 | All plays | +10.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.6 points to Florida State Seminoles. The final margin was 31.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Florida State Seminoles closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.
The line moved toward Florida State Seminoles before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Virginia -1.5 (-110)
Virginia -1.5 (-102)
Florida State -102 48%
Florida State -112 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts86
- Completion %76.7%5th
- Passing yards793131st
- Yards per attempt9.231st
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards177176th
- Season line40 carries, 177 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards166227th
- Season line15 catches, 166 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles24186th
- Attempts97
- Completion %59.8%159th
- Passing yards92884th
- Yards per attempt9.623rd
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards39717th
- Season line64 carries, 397 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards26278th
- Season line13 catches, 262 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles2977th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Virginia | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs Florida State defense | 45.4%15th | 39.7%73rd |
| Early-down success rateFlorida State offense vs Virginia defense | 35.9%22nd | 35.8%112th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs Florida State defense | 30.3%114th | 51.2%123rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFlorida State offense vs Virginia defense | 39.4%67th | 42.9%50th |
| Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs Florida State defense | 6.0%90th | 9.6%122nd |
| Explosive play rateFlorida State offense vs Virginia defense | 6.6%67th | 10.2%9th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 42.3%113th-highest | 43.7%107th-highest |
On 3rd down Virginia converts 30.3% (114th) against a Florida State defense allowing 51.2% (123rd).
On 3rd down Florida State converts 42.9% (50th) against a Virginia defense allowing 39.4% (67th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Virginia | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tony Elliott | Mike Norvell |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 25–27 | 40–36 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 25–27 | 78–51 |
| Offensive coordinator | Desmond Kitchings | Tim Harris Jr. |
| Defensive coordinator | John Rudzinski | Tony White |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Virginia won 1 and Florida State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025 | Florida State 38, Virginia 46 Virginia won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Virginia Cavaliers
- Virginia Cavaliers team stats
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Oct 31)
- Duke Blue Devils 19, Virginia Cavaliers 16 (Oct 23)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28 (Oct 10)
Florida State Seminoles
- Florida State Seminoles team stats
- Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (Oct 31)
- Florida State Seminoles 35, Miami Hurricanes 43 (Oct 17)
- Florida State Seminoles 20, Louisville Cardinals 44 (Oct 9)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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