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NCAAF · October 17, 2026

Wisconsin Badgers vs UCLA Bruins Final — October 17, 2026

Wisconsin Badgers

3-1

Quarterback Colton Joseph

FINAL

UCLA Bruins

5-0

Quarterback Ty Dieffenbach

Saturday, October 17 · 7:30 PM ET

WISOffense2026 regular season to dateUCLA

51st+0.108

EPA/play

+0.21125th

32nd50.0%

Success %

48.2%54th

43rd30.5

PPG

39.29th

WISDefenseUCLA

4th−0.195

EPA/play allowed

−0.2272nd

12th40.6%

Success % allowed

40.1%10th

29th18.5

Opp PPG

18.026th

WISRecent formUCLA

L@ Notre Dame 13-41Wvs Western Illinois 36-9Wvs Eastern Michigan 54-10W@ Penn State 24-20Wvs Michigan State 31-3

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ California 45-24Wvs San Diego State 28-10Wvs Purdue 52-38W@ Maryland 54-3W@ Oregon 17-15

4-1

Record

5-0

3-2

ATS

5-0

3-2

Over–under

3-2

WISHome and roadseason to dateUCLA

3-0

Home record

2-0

1-1

Road record

3-0

2-1

Home ATS

2-0

1-1

Road ATS

3-0

1-2

Home O/U

1-1

2-0

Road O/U

2-1

WISLast 10 gamesUCLA

Game by game

4-1

Last 5

5-0

+75

Net points

+106

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

WISRest & travelUCLA

14 days

Days of rest

7 days

1,660 mi2,671 km

Travel to the game

Home

−2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Rose Bowl

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Wisconsin (3-1) visited UCLA (5-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 PM ET.

Wisconsin has the 51st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UCLA has the 25th-ranked offense and the 2nd-ranked defense. When Wisconsin has the ball, a 51st-ranked offense (+0.108 EPA per play) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.227 allowed); when UCLA has it, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.211) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.195 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Wisconsin offense is at 50.0% (32nd) and the UCLA offense at 48.2% (54th). Wisconsin scores 30.5 points per game (43rd) and allows 18.5 (29th); UCLA scores 39.2 (9th) and allows 18.0 (26th).

Wisconsin is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-3 win over Michigan State. UCLA is 5-0 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 17-15 win over Oregon.

UCLA closed as a 1.5-point favorite at home against Wisconsin. The spread opened at UCLA -4. The total closed at 42.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wisconsin +100, UCLA -120) prices Wisconsin at 48% and UCLA at 52%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Wisconsin Badgers 7, UCLA Bruins 17

UCLA Bruins won by 10.

Against the closing spread (UCLA Bruins -1.5): UCLA Bruins covered.
Combined score 24 vs the closing total of 42.5: Under.
UCLA Bruins closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

48%Market at the close52%

Wisconsin BadgersUCLA Bruins

38%Market at the open62%

From open to close the market moved 10 points toward Wisconsin Badgers.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Wisconsin Badgers 48%, UCLA Bruins 52%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q3 13:27 — Wisconsin Badgers ball, 1st & 10 at WIS 41Shotgun #3 A.Sama III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WISC43 (#95 T.Ford)Wisconsin Badgers 20% → 34% (+14 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 13:23 — Wisconsin Badgers ball, 2nd & 8 at WIS 43Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 4 yards gain to the WISC47 (#9 J.Woods) PENALTY UCLA Personal Foul (#95 T.Ford) 15 yards from WISC47 to UCLA38, 1ST DOWNUCLA Bruins 60% → 82% (+22 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 4:51 — UCLA Bruins ball, 3rd & 13 at UCLA 32Shotgun #14 T.Dieffenbach pass complete deep right to #85 B.Loftin caught at WISC46, for 22 yards to the WISC46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WISC Offside decl…UCLA Bruins 62% → 73% (+11 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Q3 1:21 — UCLA Bruins ball, 4th & 4 at WIS 33Shotgun #14 T.Dieffenbach pass incomplete short middle to #3 W.Knight thrown to WISC29 broken up by #29 M.Jung, TURNOVER ON DOWNSWisconsin Badgers 29% → 40% (+11 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 12:51 — UCLA Bruins ball, 3rd & 6 at UCLA 35Shotgun #14 T.Dieffenbach pass complete deep middle to #4 S.Morgan caught at WISC36, for 33 yards to the WISC32 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WISC Targeting (#…UCLA Bruins 68% → 83% (+15 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

Wisconsin	Points added	UCLA
-4.4	Passingdropbacks	-5.4
+2.4	Rushingdesigned runs	-10.0
+0.6	Explosive plays1 plays · 7 plays	+22.2
+0.0	Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways	-3.1
-2.6	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	+1.3
-2.1	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	+2.4
+2.1	Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 4	+3.6
-3.9	All plays	+11.0

Bar left: Wisconsin gainedBar right: UCLA gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 21.6 points to UCLA Bruins. The final margin was 10.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

Line review

UCLA Bruins closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.

The line moved toward Wisconsin Badgers before kickoff, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 2.5

OpenUCLA -4 (-112)
Wisconsin +4 (-109)

CloseUCLA -1.5 (-110)
Wisconsin +1.5 (-112)

Totaldown 4

Open46.5 (o -109 / u -112)

Close42.5 (o -114 / u -108)

Moneyline

OpenWisconsin +150 38%
UCLA -190 62%

CloseWisconsin +100 48%
UCLA -120 52%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Wisconsin

QB · Colton Joseph

Attempts143
Completion %56.6%197th
Passing yards1,132114th
Yards per attempt7.988th
TD–INT10–5

Leading rusher (QB) · Colton Joseph

Rushing yards262156th
Season line51 carries, 262 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Tyrell Henry

Receiving yards33988th
Season line26 catches, 339 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Cooper Catalano

Tackles4551st

UCLA

QB · Ty Dieffenbach

Attempts5
Completion %40.0%
Passing yards29
Yards per attempt5.8
TD–INT1–0

Leading rusher (RB) · Wayne Knight

Rushing yards54821st
Season line71 carries, 548 yds, 10 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Semaj Morgan

Receiving yards229218th
Season line19 catches, 229 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Jalen Woods

Tackles4370th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Wisconsin	UCLA
Early-down success rateWisconsin offense vs UCLA defense	46.1%31st	39.3%24th
Early-down success rateUCLA offense vs Wisconsin defense	39.8%28th	45.0%45th
3rd-down conversion rateWisconsin offense vs UCLA defense	47.1%27th	33.9%29th
3rd-down conversion rateUCLA offense vs Wisconsin defense	33.3%22nd	44.8%39th
Explosive play rateWisconsin offense vs UCLA defense	8.4%31st	6.7%69th
Explosive play rateUCLA offense vs Wisconsin defense	3.2%2nd	10.2%7th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	48.9%86th-highest	41.4%124th-highest

On 3rd down Wisconsin converts 47.1% (27th) against a UCLA defense allowing 33.9% (29th).

On 3rd down UCLA converts 44.8% (39th) against a Wisconsin defense allowing 33.3% (22nd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Wisconsin	UCLA
Head coach	Luke Fickell	Bob Chesney
Tenureat this school	4th season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	21–22	5–0
Career recordas an FBS head coach	84–47	26–6
Offensive coordinator	Jeff Grimes	Dean Kennedy
Defensive coordinator	Mike Tressel	Colin Hitschler

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Teams