Ole Miss Rebels vs Vanderbilt Commodores Final — October 10, 2026
MISSOffense2026 regular season to dateVAN
MISSDefenseVANMISSRecent formVANMISSHome and roadseason to dateVANMISSLast 10 gamesVANRest & travelrest and travel
MISSRest & travelVANAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ole Miss (3-1) visited Vanderbilt (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Ole Miss has the 21st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 97th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has the 82nd-ranked offense and the 87th-ranked defense. When Ole Miss has the ball, a 21st-ranked offense (+0.240 EPA per play) meets a 87th-ranked defense (+0.106 allowed); when Vanderbilt has it, a 82nd-ranked offense (+0.036) meets a 97th-ranked defense (+0.151 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ole Miss offense is at 53.0% (13th) and the Vanderbilt offense at 45.4% (82nd). Ole Miss scores 35.5 points per game (21st) and allows 30.8 (96th); Vanderbilt scores 24.8 (74th) and allows 29.0 (82nd).
Ole Miss is 3-1; its last game was a 52-28 loss to Florida. Vanderbilt is 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 38-14 loss to Georgia.
Ole Miss closed as a 9.5-point road favorite, with Vanderbilt getting the points at home. The spread opened at Ole Miss -10.5. The total closed at 54.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ole Miss -360, Vanderbilt +280) prices Ole Miss at 75% and Vanderbilt at 25%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ole Miss Rebels 52, Vanderbilt Commodores 17
Ole Miss Rebels won by 35.
- Against the closing spread (Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5): Ole Miss Rebels covered.
- Combined score 69 vs the closing total of 54.5: Over.
- Ole Miss Rebels closed at -360 on the moneyline (a 75% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Vanderbilt Commodores.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ole Miss Rebels 75%, Vanderbilt Commodores 25%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:36 — Vanderbilt Commodores ball, 2nd & 17 at MISS 33No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short middle to #16 C.Spence caught at OM15, for 27 yards to the OM06 (#7 S.Denson; #2 J.Braxton), 1ST DOWNVanderbilt Commodores 18% → 23% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Ole Miss | Points added | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| +1.2 | Passingdropbacks | +7.3 |
| +9.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.6 |
| +9.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 5 plays | +12.8 |
| -6.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -11.6 |
| +3.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.4 |
| -0.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -8.2 |
| +5.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 4 · 2 of 4 | +5.3 |
| +22.1 | All plays | -0.6 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 16.7 points to Ole Miss Rebels. The final margin was 35.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ole Miss Rebels closed as the market favourite at 75% and won.
The line moved toward Vanderbilt Commodores before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ole Miss -10.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -9.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt +325 23%
Vanderbilt +280 25%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts144
- Completion %70.8%21st
- Passing yards1,22264th
- Yards per attempt8.558th
- TD–INT8–3
- Rushing yards191207th
- Season line39 carries, 191 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards42923rd
- Season line27 catches, 429 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles29192nd
- Attempts98
- Completion %64.3%93rd
- Passing yards746195th
- Yards per attempt7.6115th
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards200189th
- Season line45 carries, 200 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards47414th
- Season line28 catches, 474 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3849th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOle Miss offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 49.7%12th | 38.4%20th |
| Early-down success rateVanderbilt offense vs Ole Miss defense | 43.3%70th | 42.0%80th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOle Miss offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 45.5%38th | 41.8%84th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVanderbilt offense vs Ole Miss defense | 48.1%121st | 35.2%95th |
| Explosive play rateOle Miss offense vs Vanderbilt defense | 6.5%78th | 6.9%79th |
| Explosive play rateVanderbilt offense vs Ole Miss defense | 8.4%111th | 4.9%114th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 58.5%12th-highest | 53.1%48th-highest |
On 3rd down Ole Miss converts 45.5% (38th) against a Vanderbilt defense allowing 41.8% (84th).
On 3rd down Vanderbilt converts 35.2% (95th) against a Ole Miss defense allowing 48.1% (121st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pete Golding | Clark Lea |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–2 | 29–38 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 5–2 | 29–38 |
| Offensive coordinator | John David Baker | Tim Beck |
| Defensive coordinator | Bryan Brown | Steve Gregory |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Ole Miss won 3 and Vanderbilt 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2023 | Vanderbilt 7, Ole Miss 33 Ole Miss won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 28 Ole Miss won | ||
| Nov 20, 2021 | Vanderbilt 17, Ole Miss 31 Ole Miss won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Ole Miss Rebels
- Ole Miss Rebels team stats
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 31)
- Ole Miss Rebels 27, Texas Longhorns 34 (Oct 24)
- Missouri Tigers 3, Ole Miss Rebels 31 (Oct 17)
- Ole Miss Rebels 28, Florida Gators 52 (Sep 26)
Vanderbilt Commodores
- Vanderbilt Commodores team stats
- Vanderbilt Commodores 17, Kentucky Wildcats 34 (Oct 24)
- Arkansas Razorbacks 31, Vanderbilt Commodores 21 (Oct 17)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results