UCLA Bruins vs Oregon Ducks Final — October 10, 2026
UCLAOffense2026 regular season to dateORE
UCLADefenseOREUCLARecent formOREUCLAHome and roadseason to dateOREUCLALast 10 gamesORERest & travelrest and travel
UCLARest & travelOREAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UCLA (4-0) visited Oregon (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
UCLA has the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 10th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Oregon has the 25th-ranked offense and the 63rd-ranked defense. When UCLA has the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.362 EPA per play) meets a 63rd-ranked defense (+0.052 allowed); when Oregon has it, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.227) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.146 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UCLA offense is at 52.1% (21st) and the Oregon offense at 44.2% (94th). UCLA scores 44.8 points per game (4th) and allows 18.8 (31st); Oregon scores 35.3 (22nd) and allows 31.0 (98th).
UCLA is 4-0 and 4-0 against the spread; its last game was a 54-3 win over Maryland. Oregon is 3-1; its last game was a 41-27 win over USC.
Oregon closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against UCLA. The spread opened at Oregon -12.5. The total closed at 57.5, down from 60.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UCLA +320, Oregon -420) prices UCLA at 23% and Oregon at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UCLA Bruins 17, Oregon Ducks 15
UCLA Bruins won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Oregon Ducks -10.5): UCLA Bruins covered.
- Combined score 32 vs the closing total of 57.5: Under.
- UCLA Bruins closed at +320 on the moneyline (a 23% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward UCLA Bruins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UCLA Bruins 23%, Oregon Ducks 77%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:08 — UCLA Bruins ball, 1st & 10 at UCLA 10Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava rush middle for 9 yards loss to the UCL01 fumbled by #9 N.Iamaleava at UCL01 recovered by ORE #3 K.Perich at UCL01, End Of PlayOregon Ducks 72% → 83% (+12 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:33 — Oregon Ducks ball, 2nd & 6 at ORE 26#8 D.Raiola pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE23, for 7 yards to the ORE33 fumbled by #7 E.Stewart at ORE31 forced by #1 S.Jackson recovered…UCLA Bruins 43% → 58% (+14 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:26 — Oregon Ducks ball, 2nd & 3 at ORE 10#8 D.Raiola pass intercepted by #6 T.Johnson at ORE33, End Of PlayUCLA Bruins 49% → 64% (+15 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:16 — Oregon Ducks ball, 2nd & 10 at UCLA 44Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short middle to #7 E.Stewart caught at UCL42, for 44 yards to the UCL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #12 B.Thomas rush att…Oregon Ducks 14% → 32% (+18 pts) · Drive 31 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:04 — Oregon Ducks ball, 4th & 10 at ORE 37No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE40, for 30 yards to the UCL33 lateral to #9 J.Johnson for 7 yards gain to t…UCLA Bruins 79% → 100% (+21 pts) · Drive 33 in Drive X-Ray
UCLA Bruins won after falling as low as 11% (Q2 12:48).
Game DNA
| UCLA | Points added | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 | Passingdropbacks | -5.7 |
| -12.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -10.9 |
| +15.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 3 plays | +8.3 |
| -14.6 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 6 giveaways | -20.6 |
| -7.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.8 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.5 |
| -3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 1 of 3 | -2.1 |
| -26.9 | All plays | -26.7 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.4 points to Oregon Ducks. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Oregon Ducks closed as the market favourite at 77% and lost.
The line moved toward UCLA Bruins before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UCLA +12.5 (-107)
UCLA +10.5 (-113)
Oregon -532 81%
Oregon -420 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts99
- Completion %62.6%116th
- Passing yards820166th
- Yards per attempt8.369th
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards44524th
- Season line49 carries, 445 yds, 9 TD
- Receiving yards174271st
- Season line14 catches, 174 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3761st
- Attempts25
- Completion %76.0%
- Passing yards289
- Yards per attempt11.6
- TD–INT2–0
- Rushing yards260121st
- Season line49 carries, 260 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards27897th
- Season line22 catches, 278 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles23375th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UCLA | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUCLA offense vs Oregon defense | 47.4%30th | 45.6%101st |
| Early-down success rateOregon offense vs UCLA defense | 40.2%31st | 41.5%86th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUCLA offense vs Oregon defense | 52.4%9th | 27.3%4th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOregon offense vs UCLA defense | 40.0%70th | 38.5%84th |
| Explosive play rateUCLA offense vs Oregon defense | 11.1%4th | 8.0%101st |
| Explosive play rateOregon offense vs UCLA defense | 7.0%83rd | 10.1%9th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.0%115th-highest | 56.6%21st-highest |
On 3rd down UCLA converts 52.4% (9th) against a Oregon defense allowing 27.3% (4th).
On 3rd down Oregon converts 38.5% (84th) against a UCLA defense allowing 40.0% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UCLA | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bob Chesney | Dan Lanning |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–0 | 51–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 25–6 | 51–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Dean Kennedy | Drew Mehringer |
| Defensive coordinator | Colin Hitschler | Chris Hampton |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: UCLA won 0 and Oregon 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Oregon 34, UCLA 13 Oregon won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | UCLA 30, Oregon 45 Oregon won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | Oregon 34, UCLA 31 Oregon won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UCLA Bruins
- UCLA Bruins team stats
- Nevada Wolf Pack at UCLA Bruins (Oct 31)
- Michigan State Spartans 10, UCLA Bruins 28 (Oct 24)
- Wisconsin Badgers 7, UCLA Bruins 17 (Oct 17)
- UCLA Bruins 54, Maryland Terrapins 3 (Sep 26)
Oregon Ducks
- Oregon Ducks team stats
- Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks (Oct 31)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Nebraska Cornhuskers 14, Oregon Ducks 17 (Oct 17)
- Oregon Ducks 41, USC Trojans 27 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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