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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

UNLV Rebels vs New Mexico Lobos Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

UNLV Rebels logo
5-4
Quarterback Jackson Arnold
at
New Mexico Lobos logo
7-1
Quarterback Toa Fa'avae
Saturday, November 14 · 7:30 PM ET
UNLVOffense2026 regular season to dateUNM
66th+0.061
EPA/play
−0.00696th
106th43.7%
Success %
49.5%33rd
70th26.1
PPG
30.138th
UNLVDefenseUNM
68th+0.064
EPA/play allowed
−0.3171st
65th46.7%
Success % allowed
35.7%1st
68th25.7
Opp PPG
11.41st
UNLVRecent formUNM
Wvs California 39-31Wvs North Dakota State 13-7L@ Air Force 31-41Wvs Northern Illinois 31-24Lvs Wyoming 35-41
Resultsoldest to newest
Wvs UTEP 61-7W@ Hawai'i 21-10Wvs North Dakota State 21-16W@ San José State 21-16W@ Nevada 31-3
5-4
Record
8-1
—
ATS
7-2
—
Over–under
3-6
UNLVHome and roadseason to dateUNM
3-2
Home record
4-0
2-2
Road record
4-1
—
Home ATS
4-0
—
Road ATS
3-2
—
Home O/U
2-2
—
Road O/U
1-4
UNLVLast 10 gamesUNM
-6+15-38+28+8+6-10+7-6
Game by game
+31+63-8+24+54+11+5+5+28
5-4
Last 9
8-1
+4
Net points
+213
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Rest & travelrest and travel
UNLVRest & travelUNM
7 days
Days of rest
8 days
486 mi782 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)
Travel to the game
Home
+1 hclock change vs home
Time-zone change
Home
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

UNLV (5-4) visits New Mexico (7-1) on Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET.

UNLV has the 66th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 68th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, New Mexico has the 96th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When UNLV has the ball, a 66th-ranked offense (+0.061 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.317 allowed); when New Mexico has it, a 96th-ranked offense (−0.006) meets a 68th-ranked defense (+0.064 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UNLV offense is at 43.7% (106th) and the New Mexico offense at 49.5% (33rd). UNLV scores 26.1 points per game (70th) and allows 25.7 (68th); New Mexico scores 30.1 (38th) and allows 11.4 (1st).

UNLV is 5-4; its last game was a 41-35 loss to Wyoming. New Mexico is 8-1 and 7-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-3 win over Nevada.

New Mexico is a 14-point favorite at home against UNLV. The spread opened at New Mexico -13.5. The total is 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (UNLV +475, New Mexico -690) prices UNLV at 17% and New Mexico at 83%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 0.5
OpenNew Mexico -13.5 (-118)
UNLV +13.5 (-102)
NowNew Mexico -14 (-110)
UNLV +14 (-108)
Totaldown 1
Open47.5 (o -111 / u -108)
Now46.5 (o -113 / u -107)
Moneyline
OpenUNLV +475 17%
New Mexico -660 83%
NowUNLV +475 17%
New Mexico -690 83%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

  • UNLV +14-108BetMGM
  • New Mexico -14-110DraftKings
  • Over 46.5-102Novig
  • Under 46.5-105FanDuel
  • UNLV+525Novig
  • New Mexico-550ProphetX

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %

Matchup

Players to watch

UNLV Rebels logo
UNLV
QB · Jackson Arnold
  • Attempts230
  • Completion %58.7%173rd
  • Passing yards1,743118th
  • Yards per attempt7.699th
  • TD–INT15–5
Leading rusher (RB) · Jai'Den Thomas
  • Rushing yards75329th
  • Season line144 carries, 753 yds, 6 TD
Leading receiver (WR) · Kayden McGee
  • Receiving yards475122nd
  • Season line22 catches, 475 yds, 6 TD
Leading tackler (S) · Jake Pope
  • Tackles7635th
New Mexico Lobos logo
New Mexico
QB · Toa Fa'avae
  • Attempts108
  • Completion %62.0%
  • Passing yards846
  • Yards per attempt7.8
  • TD–INT6–5
Leading rusher (RB) · Scottre Humphrey
  • Rushing yards64749th
  • Season line128 carries, 647 yds, 13 TD
Leading receiver (TE) · Cade Keith
  • Receiving yards358229th
  • Season line26 catches, 358 yds, 4 TD
Leading tackler (LB) · Mercury Swaim
  • Tackles55208th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

SituationUNLVNew Mexico
Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs New Mexico defense38.5%123rd31.2%1st
Early-down success rateNew Mexico offense vs UNLV defense42.7%64th43.9%56th
3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs New Mexico defense43.8%36th36.3%34th
3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico offense vs UNLV defense41.8%76th42.0%54th
Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs New Mexico defense6.6%78th5.2%21st
Explosive play rateNew Mexico offense vs UNLV defense8.4%117th7.0%61st
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks45.5%110th-highest34.1%133rd-highest

On 3rd down UNLV converts 43.8% (36th) against a New Mexico defense allowing 36.3% (34th).

On 3rd down New Mexico converts 42.0% (54th) against a UNLV defense allowing 41.8% (76th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

StaffUNLVNew Mexico
Head coachDan MullenJason Eck
Tenureat this school2nd season2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below15–817–5
Career recordas an FBS head coach118–6917–5
Offensive coordinatorCorey DennisLuke Schleusner
Defensive coordinatorPaul GuentherSpence Nowinsky

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 4 times since 2021: UNLV won 3 and New Mexico 1.

DateScoreLineTotal
Nov 1, 2025New Mexico 40, UNLV 35
New Mexico won


Nov 4, 2023UNLV 56, New Mexico 14
UNLV won


Sep 30, 2022New Mexico 20, UNLV 31
UNLV won


Nov 6, 2021UNLV 31, New Mexico 17
UNLV won


Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams

UNLV Rebels

New Mexico Lobos

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