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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

Minnesota Golden Gophers

4-4

Quarterback Drake Lindsey

Penn State Nittany Lions

5-4

Quarterback Rocco Becht

Saturday, November 14 · 7:00 PM ET

MINNOffense2026 regular season to datePSU

127th−0.114

EPA/play

+0.07162nd

134th39.4%

Success %

47.4%58th

110th20.4

PPG

28.947th

MINNDefensePSU

19th−0.073

EPA/play allowed

+0.02152nd

9th40.9%

Success % allowed

45.5%53rd

50th23.9

Opp PPG

19.324th

MINNRecent formPSU

Wvs Michigan 20-14L@ Purdue 13-41Wvs Iowa 13-10L@ Indiana 16-23Lvs UCLA 20-34

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Northwestern 13-34Lvs USC 23-31L@ Michigan 18-21Wvs Purdue 31-17W@ Washington 28-25

5-4

Record

5-4

6-3

ATS

5-4

4-5

Over–under

3-5-1

MINNHome and roadseason to datePSU

4-2

Home record

3-2

1-2

Road record

2-2

4-2

Home ATS

3-2

2-1

Road ATS

2-2

2-4

Home O/U

2-3

2-1

Road O/U

1-2-1

MINNLast 10 gamesPSU

Game by game

5-4

Last 9

5-4

+24

Net points

+86

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

MINNRest & travelPSU

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

828 mi1,332 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Beaver Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Minnesota (4-4) visits Penn State (5-4) on Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET.

Minnesota has the 127th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 19th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Penn State has the 62nd-ranked offense and the 52nd-ranked defense. When Minnesota has the ball, a 127th-ranked offense (−0.114 EPA per play) meets a 52nd-ranked defense (+0.021 allowed); when Penn State has it, a 62nd-ranked offense (+0.071) meets a 19th-ranked defense (−0.073 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Minnesota offense is at 39.4% (134th) and the Penn State offense at 47.4% (58th). Minnesota scores 20.4 points per game (110th) and allows 23.9 (50th); Penn State scores 28.9 (47th) and allows 19.3 (24th).

Minnesota is 5-4 and 6-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-20 loss to UCLA. Penn State is 5-4 and 5-4 against the spread; its last game was a 28-25 win over Washington.

Penn State is a 9.5-point favorite at home against Minnesota. The spread opened at Penn State -8. The total is 41.5, down from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Minnesota +275, Penn State -360) prices Minnesota at 25% and Penn State at 75%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1.5

OpenPenn State -8 (-110)
Minnesota +8 (-110)

NowPenn State -9.5 (-110)
Minnesota +9.5 (-110)

Totaldown 1

Open42.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now41.5 (o -113 / u -107)

Moneyline

OpenMinnesota +262 26%
Penn State -330 74%

NowMinnesota +275 25%
Penn State -360 75%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

Minnesota +9.5-102Novig
Penn State -9.5-104ProphetX
Over 41.5-105theScore Bet
Under 41.5+100FanDuel
Minnesota+300theScore Bet
Penn State-326Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Minnesota

QB · Drake Lindsey

Attempts296
Completion %60.8%140th
Passing yards1,797108th
Yards per attempt6.1225th
TD–INT11–7

Leading rusher (RB) · TJ Thomas

Rushing yards400160th
Season line69 carries, 400 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Javon Tracy

Receiving yards485117th
Season line49 catches, 485 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Maverick Baranowski

Tackles6968th

Penn State

QB · Rocco Becht

Attempts261
Completion %62.8%111th
Passing yards2,07963rd
Yards per attempt8.071st
TD–INT15–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Carson Hansen

Rushing yards493111th
Season line103 carries, 493 yds, 6 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Chase Sowell

Receiving yards63548th
Season line38 catches, 635 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Tony Rojas

Tackles65107th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Minnesota	Penn State
Early-down success rateMinnesota offense vs Penn State defense	35.1%137th	42.9%73rd
Early-down success ratePenn State offense vs Minnesota defense	39.5%20th	44.5%47th
3rd-down conversion rateMinnesota offense vs Penn State defense	28.6%133rd	33.0%15th
3rd-down conversion ratePenn State offense vs Minnesota defense	31.8%9th	36.1%104th
Explosive play rateMinnesota offense vs Penn State defense	6.1%98th	7.0%77th
Explosive play ratePenn State offense vs Minnesota defense	7.3%88th	7.3%54th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	58.8%11th-highest	50.3%72nd-highest

On 3rd down Minnesota converts 28.6% (133rd) against a Penn State defense allowing 33.0% (15th).

On 3rd down Penn State converts 36.1% (104th) against a Minnesota defense allowing 31.8% (9th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Minnesota	Penn State
Head coach	P. J. Fleck	Matt Campbell
Tenureat this school	10th season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	71–48	5–4
Career recordas an FBS head coach	101–70	112–74
Offensive coordinator	Greg Harbaugh Jr. / Matt Simon	Taylor Mouser
Defensive coordinator	Danny Collins	D'Anton Lynn

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Minnesota won 0 and Penn State 2.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 23, 2024	Penn State 26, Minnesota 25 Penn State won
Oct 22, 2022	Minnesota 17, Penn State 45 Penn State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams