Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026
AUBOffense2026 regular season to dateMSST
AUBDefenseMSSTAUBRecent formMSSTAUBHome and roadseason to dateMSSTAUBLast 10 gamesMSSTRest & travelrest and travel
AUBRest & travelMSSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Auburn (5-4) visits Mississippi State (4-5) on Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET.
Auburn has the 71st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 82nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has the 84th-ranked offense and the 80th-ranked defense. When Auburn has the ball, a 71st-ranked offense (+0.051 EPA per play) meets a 80th-ranked defense (+0.085 allowed); when Mississippi State has it, a 84th-ranked offense (+0.019) meets a 82nd-ranked defense (+0.090 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Auburn offense is at 44.1% (98th) and the Mississippi State offense at 45.4% (84th). Auburn scores 24.3 points per game (79th) and allows 26.3 (71st); Mississippi State scores 26.2 (67th) and allows 27.8 (81st).
Auburn is 5-4 and 2-7 against the spread; its last game was a 26-23 win over Arkansas. Mississippi State is 4-5 and 4-5 against the spread; its last game was a 25-23 loss to Vanderbilt.
Auburn is a 2.5-point road favorite, with Mississippi State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Auburn -3.5. The total is 50.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Auburn -142, Mississippi State +120) prices Auburn at 56% and Mississippi State at 44%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Auburn -3.5 (-106)
Auburn -2.5 (-115)
Mississippi State +133 41%
Mississippi State +120 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 12
- Auburn -2.5-108Novig
- Mississippi State +2.5+106Novig
- Over 50.5-105Bally Bet
- Under 50.5+102Novig
- Auburn-130Hard Rock
- Mississippi State+130Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts280
- Completion %64.6%83rd
- Passing yards1,737120th
- Yards per attempt6.2218th
- TD–INT11–7
- Rushing yards60563rd
- Season line162 carries, 605 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards491111th
- Season line45 catches, 491 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles6788th
- Attempts50
- Completion %68.0%
- Passing yards344
- Yards per attempt6.9
- TD–INT2–1
- Rushing yards61359th
- Season line122 carries, 613 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards71129th
- Season line61 catches, 711 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles53232nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAuburn offense vs Mississippi State defense | 39.3%116th | 38.3%15th |
| Early-down success rateMississippi State offense vs Auburn defense | 40.0%24th | 43.1%67th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAuburn offense vs Mississippi State defense | 41.9%56th | 42.7%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMississippi State offense vs Auburn defense | 42.6%87th | 41.2%60th |
| Explosive play rateAuburn offense vs Mississippi State defense | 6.5%79th | 6.8%72nd |
| Explosive play rateMississippi State offense vs Auburn defense | 6.4%59th | 7.5%44th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.0%45th-highest | 54.9%27th-highest |
On 3rd down Auburn converts 41.9% (56th) against a Mississippi State defense allowing 42.7% (90th).
On 3rd down Mississippi State converts 41.2% (60th) against a Auburn defense allowing 42.6% (87th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Alex Golesh | Jeff Lebby |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–4 | 11–23 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 28–19 | 11–23 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kodi Burns / Joel Gordon | Jeff Lebby |
| Defensive coordinator | D.J. Durkin | Zach Arnett / Matt Brock |
Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Auburn won 1 and Mississippi State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2023 | Mississippi State 13, Auburn 27 Auburn won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | Auburn 33, Mississippi State 39 Mississippi State won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | Mississippi State 43, Auburn 34 Mississippi State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Auburn Tigers
- Auburn Tigers team stats
- Arkansas Razorbacks 23, Auburn Tigers 26 (Nov 7)
- Auburn Tigers 15, Ole Miss Rebels 45 (Oct 31)
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
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