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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

7-1

Quarterback Gio Lopez

SMU Mustangs

6-2

Quarterback Kevin Jennings

Saturday, November 14 · 12:00 PM ET

WAKEOffense2026 regular season to dateSMU

5th+0.313

EPA/play

+0.17028th

14th52.2%

Success %

50.1%29th

5th39.1

PPG

34.618th

WAKEDefenseSMU

39th−0.027

EPA/play allowed

+0.08379th

67th46.7%

Success % allowed

45.8%57th

18th17.9

Opp PPG

24.555th

WAKERecent formSMU

Wvs Stanford 57-3W@ NC State 38-14W@ California 41-7Wvs Virginia 51-7Wvs Merrimack 77-0

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Boston College 25-16Wvs Virginia 23-13Wvs California 59-20L@ Syracuse 27-30Wvs Virginia Tech 51-28

8-1

Record

7-2

ATS

3-4-2

5-4

Over–under

4-5

WAKEHome and roadseason to dateSMU

4-1

Home record

6-0

4-0

Road record

1-2

4-1

Home ATS

3-2-1

3-1

Road ATS

0-2-1

4-1

Home O/U

3-3

1-3

Road O/U

1-2

WAKELast 10 gamesSMU

Game by game

8-1

Last 9

7-2

+247

Net points

+127

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

WAKERest & travelSMU

7 days

Days of rest

8 days

967 mi1,556 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Wake Forest (7-1) visits SMU (6-2) on Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET.

Wake Forest has the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 39th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, SMU has the 28th-ranked offense and the 79th-ranked defense. When Wake Forest has the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.313 EPA per play) meets a 79th-ranked defense (+0.083 allowed); when SMU has it, a 28th-ranked offense (+0.170) meets a 39th-ranked defense (−0.027 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Wake Forest offense is at 52.2% (14th) and the SMU offense at 50.1% (29th). Wake Forest scores 39.1 points per game (5th) and allows 17.9 (18th); SMU scores 34.6 (18th) and allows 24.5 (55th).

Wake Forest is 8-1 and 7-2 against the spread; its last game was a 77-0 win over Merrimack. SMU is 7-2 and 3-4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech.

SMU is a 1-point favorite at home against Wake Forest. The spread opened with Wake Forest favored by 1.5. The total is 60.5, up from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Wake Forest -108, SMU -111) prices Wake Forest at 50% and SMU at 50%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadfavorite flipped

OpenSMU +1.5 (-110)
Wake Forest -1.5 (-110)

NowSMU -1 (-110)
Wake Forest +1 (-110)

Totalup 1

Open59.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Now60.5 (o -115 / u -105)

Moneyline

OpenWake Forest -117 52%
SMU -102 48%

NowWake Forest -108 50%
SMU -111 50%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

Wake Forest +1-110BetMGM
SMU -1-108BetMGM
Over 60.5-104Novig
Under 60.5-102Novig
Wake Forest+102Novig
SMU-105Hard Rock

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Wake Forest

QB · Gio Lopez

Attempts208
Completion %67.8%
Passing yards1,939
Yards per attempt9.3
TD–INT16–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Ty Clark III

Rushing yards416150th
Season line86 carries, 416 yds, 8 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Carlos Hernandez

Receiving yards9456th
Season line61 catches, 945 yds, 7 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Vincent Firenze

Tackles53232nd

SMU

QB · Kevin Jennings

Attempts283
Completion %73.9%3rd
Passing yards2,78310th
Yards per attempt9.85th
TD–INT25–6

Leading rusher (RB) · Kendrick Raphael

Rushing yards75528th
Season line150 carries, 755 yds, 10 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Yamir Knight

Receiving yards62651st
Season line50 catches, 626 yds, 6 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Alexander Kilgore

Tackles51260th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Wake Forest	SMU
Early-down success rateWake Forest offense vs SMU defense	46.3%25th	42.9%70th
Early-down success rateSMU offense vs Wake Forest defense	41.9%52nd	45.5%33rd
3rd-down conversion rateWake Forest offense vs SMU defense	53.1%6th	33.0%16th
3rd-down conversion rateSMU offense vs Wake Forest defense	36.5%37th	46.3%27th
Explosive play rateWake Forest offense vs SMU defense	8.9%12th	5.9%35th
Explosive play rateSMU offense vs Wake Forest defense	3.7%3rd	9.1%7th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	52.7%47th-highest	51.2%67th-highest

On 3rd down Wake Forest converts 53.1% (6th) against a SMU defense allowing 33.0% (16th).

On 3rd down SMU converts 46.3% (27th) against a Wake Forest defense allowing 36.5% (37th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Wake Forest	SMU
Head coach	Jake Dickert	Rhett Lashlee
Tenureat this school	2nd season	5th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	17–5	45–19
Career recordas an FBS head coach	40–25	45–19
Offensive coordinator	Rob Ezell	Garin Justice / D'Eriq King / Rob Likens
Defensive coordinator	Scottie Hazelton	Maurice Crum Jr. / Rickey Hunley Jr.

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Wake Forest won 1 and SMU 0.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 25, 2025	SMU 12, Wake Forest 13 Wake Forest won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams