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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

New Mexico State Aggies

2-6

Quarterback Trey Hedden

Missouri State Bears

2-6

Quarterback Henry Belin IV

Saturday, November 14 · 3:00 PM ET

NMSUOffense2026 regular season to dateMOST

120th−0.089

EPA/play

−0.026101st

128th41.1%

Success %

43.2%109th

128th16.9

PPG

20.9106th

NMSUDefenseMOST

54th+0.022

EPA/play allowed

+0.07375th

58th46.1%

Success % allowed

49.7%112th

76th27.2

Opp PPG

32.0111th

NMSURecent formMOST

Wvs Western Kentucky 34-13L@ Florida International 3-22W@ Sam Houston 30-24Lvs Jacksonville State 0-24Lvs Liberty 14-30

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Western Kentucky 13-34Wvs Kennesaw State 24-21L@ Delaware 38-61Wvs Sam Houston 24-3L@ Florida International 20-23

3-6

Record

3-6

—

ATS

5-4

—

Over–under

3-6

NMSUHome and roadseason to dateMOST

2-3

Home record

3-1

1-3

Road record

0-5

—

Home ATS

3-1

—

Road ATS

2-3

—

Home O/U

2-2

—

Road O/U

1-4

NMSULast 10 gamesMOST

Game by game

3-6

Last 9

3-6

-46

Net points

-55

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

NMSURest & travelMOST

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

835 mi1,344 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Plaster Sports Complex

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

New Mexico State (2-6) visits Missouri State (2-6) on Saturday, November 14 at 3:00 PM ET.

New Mexico State has the 120th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 54th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Missouri State has the 101st-ranked offense and the 75th-ranked defense. When New Mexico State has the ball, a 120th-ranked offense (−0.089 EPA per play) meets a 75th-ranked defense (+0.073 allowed); when Missouri State has it, a 101st-ranked offense (−0.026) meets a 54th-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the New Mexico State offense is at 41.1% (128th) and the Missouri State offense at 43.2% (109th). New Mexico State scores 16.9 points per game (128th) and allows 27.2 (76th); Missouri State scores 20.9 (106th) and allows 32.0 (111th).

New Mexico State is 3-6; its last game was a 30-14 loss to Liberty. Missouri State is 3-6 and 5-4 against the spread; its last game was a 23-20 loss to Florida International.

Missouri State is a 1.5-point favorite at home against New Mexico State. The spread opened at Missouri State -2.5. The total is 48.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (New Mexico State +105, Missouri State -129) prices New Mexico State at 46% and Missouri State at 54%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenMissouri State -2.5 (-114)
New Mexico State +2.5 (-106)

NowMissouri State -1.5 (-111)
New Mexico State +1.5 (-108)

Totaldown 2

Open50.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now48.5 (o -111 / u -108)

Moneyline

OpenNew Mexico State +112 45%
Missouri State -133 55%

NowNew Mexico State +105 46%
Missouri State -129 54%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

New Mexico State +1.5-102Novig
Missouri State -1.5+100Novig
Over 48.5-110FanDuel
Under 48.5+102ProphetX
New Mexico State+109Caesars
Missouri State-111Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

New Mexico State

QB · Trey Hedden

Attempts153
Completion %54.9%226th
Passing yards1,162207th
Yards per attempt7.698th
TD–INT7–8

Leading rusher (RB) · James Jones

Rushing yards94012th
Season line154 carries, 940 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · AJ Williams III

Receiving yards409176th
Season line25 catches, 409 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Nick Session

Tackles6874th

Missouri State

QB · Henry Belin IV

Attempts161
Completion %64.6%83rd
Passing yards1,296195th
Yards per attempt8.169th
TD–INT8–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Connor Lair

Rushing yards325230th
Season line82 carries, 325 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Isaiah Myers

Receiving yards9417th
Season line46 catches, 941 yds, 8 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Jared Lloyd

Tackles1021st

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	New Mexico State	Missouri State
Early-down success rateNew Mexico State offense vs Missouri State defense	36.5%132nd	45.2%106th
Early-down success rateMissouri State offense vs New Mexico State defense	42.8%68th	40.1%106th
3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico State offense vs Missouri State defense	39.2%76th	44.7%107th
3rd-down conversion rateMissouri State offense vs New Mexico State defense	42.3%83rd	37.2%99th
Explosive play rateNew Mexico State offense vs Missouri State defense	7.0%63rd	8.2%113th
Explosive play rateMissouri State offense vs New Mexico State defense	6.7%69th	8.1%24th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	52.8%46th-highest	55.0%25th-highest

On 3rd down New Mexico State converts 39.2% (76th) against a Missouri State defense allowing 44.7% (107th).

On 3rd down Missouri State converts 37.2% (99th) against a New Mexico State defense allowing 42.3% (83rd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	New Mexico State	Missouri State
Head coach	Tony Sanchez	Casey Woods
Tenureat this school	3rd season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	10–23	3–6
Career recordas an FBS head coach	30–63	3–6
Offensive coordinator	David Yost	Mark Cala
Defensive coordinator	Joe Morris	Jack Curtis

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: New Mexico State won 0 and Missouri State 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 22, 2025	Missouri State 24, New Mexico State 17 Missouri State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams