Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina Tar Heels Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026
LOUOffense2026 regular season to dateUNC
LOUDefenseUNCLOURecent formUNCLOUHome and roadseason to dateUNCLOULast 10 gamesUNCRest & travelrest and travel
LOURest & travelUNCAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Louisville (5-3) visits North Carolina (4-4) on Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET.
Louisville has the 7th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 72nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, North Carolina has the 57th-ranked offense and the 73rd-ranked defense. When Louisville has the ball, a 7th-ranked offense (+0.269 EPA per play) meets a 73rd-ranked defense (+0.073 allowed); when North Carolina has it, a 57th-ranked offense (+0.089) meets a 72nd-ranked defense (+0.072 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Louisville offense is at 50.3% (26th) and the North Carolina offense at 48.2% (46th). Louisville scores 38.5 points per game (7th) and allows 27.5 (79th); North Carolina scores 26.1 (69th) and allows 25.2 (63rd).
Louisville is 6-3 and 6-3 against the spread; its last game was a 44-17 win over Georgia Tech. North Carolina is 5-4; its last game was a 38-21 win over UConn.
Louisville is a 3.5-point road favorite, with North Carolina getting the points at home. The spread opened at Louisville -2.5. The total is 60.5, up from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Louisville -170, North Carolina +140) prices Louisville at 60% and North Carolina at 40%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Louisville -2.5 (-112)
Louisville -3.5 (-108)
North Carolina +110 46%
North Carolina +140 40%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 12
- Louisville -3.5+102Novig
- North Carolina +3.5-104Novig
- Over 60.5-108DraftKings
- Under 60.5-105Hard Rock
- Louisville-158ProphetX
- North Carolina+153Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts233
- Completion %67.8%32nd
- Passing yards2,27639th
- Yards per attempt9.88th
- TD–INT14–3
- Rushing yards74531st
- Season line99 carries, 745 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards68538th
- Season line44 catches, 685 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles64113th
- Attempts273
- Completion %65.2%75th
- Passing yards2,12658th
- Yards per attempt7.885th
- TD–INT18–6
- Rushing yards377182nd
- Season line69 carries, 377 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards64246th
- Season line50 catches, 642 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles899th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLouisville offense vs North Carolina defense | 47.2%18th | 46.7%122nd |
| Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs Louisville defense | 45.7%112th | 44.2%52nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLouisville offense vs North Carolina defense | 44.8%33rd | 43.3%94th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs Louisville defense | 34.3%23rd | 47.5%23rd |
| Explosive play rateLouisville offense vs North Carolina defense | 11.1%1st | 5.9%38th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs Louisville defense | 6.3%55th | 5.3%122nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 47.2%96th-highest | 54.5%29th-highest |
On 3rd down Louisville converts 44.8% (33rd) against a North Carolina defense allowing 43.3% (94th).
On 3rd down North Carolina converts 47.5% (23rd) against a Louisville defense allowing 34.3% (23rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Brohm | Bill Belichick |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 34–15 | 9–12 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 100–59 | 9–12 |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Brohm | Bobby Petrino |
| Defensive coordinator | Steve Ellis / Mark Ivey | Stephen Belichick |
Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Louisville Cardinals
- Louisville Cardinals team stats
- Louisville Cardinals 44, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 17 (Nov 7)
- Stanford Cardinal 24, Louisville Cardinals 52 (Oct 31)
- Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26 (Oct 17)
North Carolina Tar Heels
More NCAAF games on November 14, 2026
- Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones (Nov 14)
- Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins (Nov 14)
- Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes (Nov 14)
- Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Nov 14)
- Syracuse Orange at NC State Wolfpack (Nov 14)
- Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes (Nov 14)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs (Nov 14)
- James Madison Dukes at UConn Huskies (Nov 14)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers (Nov 14)
- Nebraska Cornhuskers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Nov 14)
- Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores (Nov 14)
- East Carolina Pirates at Charlotte 49ers (Nov 14)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Nov 14)
- UAB Blazers at Temple Owls (Nov 14)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results