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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

Utah State Aggies

4-4

Quarterback McCae Hillstead

San Diego State Aztecs

3-5

Quarterback Jayden Denegal

Saturday, November 14 · 9:30 PM ET

USUOffense2026 regular season to dateSDSU

100th−0.025

EPA/play

−0.114128th

96th44.2%

Success %

42.4%119th

128th16.9

PPG

23.188th

USUDefenseSDSU

30th−0.048

EPA/play allowed

+0.13097th

17th42.2%

Success % allowed

51.2%127th

25th19.5

Opp PPG

36.1128th

USURecent formSDSU

L@ Boise State 18-37Wvs Washington State 17-16L@ Texas State 17-20Wvs Colorado State 31-14Wvs Fresno State 17-10

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Texas State 31-29L@ Oregon State 14-66Wvs Fresno State 26-23L@ Colorado State 49-56Wvs Washington State 26-20

4-5

Record

4-5

6-3

ATS

3-6

1-8

Over–under

6-3

USUHome and roadseason to dateSDSU

4-1

Home record

4-1

0-4

Road record

0-4

3-2

Home ATS

3-2

3-1

Road ATS

0-4

0-5

Home O/U

3-2

1-3

Road O/U

3-1

USULast 10 gamesSDSU

Game by game

4-5

Last 9

4-5

-33

Net points

-71

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

USURest & travelSDSU

7 days

Days of rest

14 days

685 mi1,102 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Snapdragon Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Utah State (4-4) visits San Diego State (3-5) on Saturday, November 14 at 9:30 PM ET.

Utah State has the 100th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, San Diego State has the 128th-ranked offense and the 97th-ranked defense. When Utah State has the ball, a 100th-ranked offense (−0.025 EPA per play) meets a 97th-ranked defense (+0.130 allowed); when San Diego State has it, a 128th-ranked offense (−0.114) meets a 30th-ranked defense (−0.048 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Utah State offense is at 44.2% (96th) and the San Diego State offense at 42.4% (119th). Utah State scores 16.9 points per game (128th) and allows 19.5 (25th); San Diego State scores 23.1 (88th) and allows 36.1 (128th).

Utah State is 4-5 and 6-3 against the spread; its last game was a 17-10 win over Fresno State. San Diego State is 4-5 and 3-6 against the spread; its last game was a 26-20 win over Washington State.

Utah State is a 2.5-point road favorite, with San Diego State getting the points at home. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 42.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Utah State -145, San Diego State +122) prices Utah State at 57% and San Diego State at 43%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenSan Diego State +2.5 (-114)
Utah State -2.5 (-106)

NowSan Diego State +2.5 (-101)
Utah State -2.5 (-119)

Totaldown 2

Open44.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Now42.5 (o -108 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenUtah State -123 53%
San Diego State +104 47%

NowUtah State -145 57%
San Diego State +122 43%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

Utah State -2.5-110ProphetX
San Diego State +2.5+104Novig
Over 42.5+106Novig
Under 42.5-108BetMGM
Utah State-134ProphetX
San Diego State+133Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Utah State

QB · McCae Hillstead

Attempts41
Completion %63.4%
Passing yards305
Yards per attempt7.4
TD–INT1–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Javen Jacobs

Rushing yards52792nd
Season line106 carries, 527 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Eli Wood

Receiving yards479118th
Season line37 catches, 479 yds, 5 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Brevin Hamblin

Tackles7155th

San Diego State

QB · Jayden Denegal

Attempts150
Completion %54.7%229th
Passing yards896229th
Yards per attempt6.0230th
TD–INT7–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Javion Kinnard

Rushing yards61359th
Season line108 carries, 613 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jaylon Hawkins

Receiving yards357232nd
Season line21 catches, 357 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Sione Hala

Tackles908th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Utah State	San Diego State
Early-down success rateUtah State offense vs San Diego State defense	40.2%103rd	48.3%131st
Early-down success rateSan Diego State offense vs Utah State defense	38.1%13th	37.8%125th
3rd-down conversion rateUtah State offense vs San Diego State defense	36.0%106th	49.5%130th
3rd-down conversion rateSan Diego State offense vs Utah State defense	41.6%73rd	36.6%100th
Explosive play rateUtah State offense vs San Diego State defense	6.4%82nd	6.8%70th
Explosive play rateSan Diego State offense vs Utah State defense	5.6%29th	5.9%103rd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	49.4%81st-highest	44.6%117th-highest

On 3rd down Utah State converts 36.0% (106th) against a San Diego State defense allowing 49.5% (130th).

On 3rd down San Diego State converts 36.6% (100th) against a Utah State defense allowing 41.6% (73rd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Utah State	San Diego State
Head coach	Bronco Mendenhall	Sean Lewis
Tenureat this school	2nd season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	10–12	15–18
Career recordas an FBS head coach	150–100	39–49
Offensive coordinator	Robert Anae	Sean Lewis
Defensive coordinator	Nick Howell	Demetrius Sumler

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Utah State won 3 and San Diego State 0.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 23, 2024	San Diego State 20, Utah State 41 Utah State won
Nov 4, 2023	Utah State 32, San Diego State 24 Utah State won
Dec 4, 2021	Utah State 46, San Diego State 13 Utah State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams