Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026
MTSUOffense2026 regular season to dateLIB
MTSUDefenseLIBMTSURecent formLIBMTSUHome and roadseason to dateLIBMTSULast 10 gamesLIBRest & travelrest and travel
MTSURest & travelLIBAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Middle Tennessee (4-4) visits Liberty (7-1) on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET.
Middle Tennessee has the 90th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 105th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Liberty has the 14th-ranked offense and the 42nd-ranked defense. When Middle Tennessee has the ball, a 90th-ranked offense (+0.010 EPA per play) meets a 42nd-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed); when Liberty has it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.216) meets a 105th-ranked defense (+0.145 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Middle Tennessee offense is at 46.9% (65th) and the Liberty offense at 54.7% (2nd). Middle Tennessee scores 25.5 points per game (73rd) and allows 33.1 (117th); Liberty scores 34.5 (19th) and allows 12.4 (2nd).
Middle Tennessee is 5-4 and 6-3 against the spread; its last game was a 51-42 win over Western Kentucky. Liberty is 8-1 and 7-2 against the spread; its last game was a 30-14 win over New Mexico State.
Liberty is a 21-point favorite at home against Middle Tennessee. The spread opened at Liberty -20.5. The total is 53.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Middle Tennessee +1000, Liberty -2000) prices Middle Tennessee at 9% and Liberty at 91%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Middle Tennessee +20.5 (-110)
Middle Tennessee +21 (-109)
Liberty -1719 91%
Liberty -2000 91%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 12
- Middle Tennessee +21-108BetMGM
- Liberty -21-108Caesars
- Over 53.5-102Novig
- Under 53.5+100Novig
- Middle Tennessee+1233Novig
- Liberty-1329Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts299
- Completion %59.2%168th
- Passing yards1,89994th
- Yards per attempt6.3209th
- TD–INT16–4
- Rushing yards71136th
- Season line128 carries, 711 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards57962nd
- Season line54 catches, 579 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles8031st
- Attempts180
- Completion %63.9%94th
- Passing yards1,705128th
- Yards per attempt9.514th
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards66646th
- Season line102 carries, 666 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards70232nd
- Season line35 catches, 702 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles53232nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Liberty defense | 44.5%46th | 45.5%109th |
| Early-down success rateLiberty offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 47.8%127th | 52.0%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Liberty defense | 35.9%107th | 32.1%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLiberty offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 39.6%58th | 48.1%19th |
| Explosive play rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Liberty defense | 5.1%127th | 6.1%45th |
| Explosive play rateLiberty offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 8.6%121st | 7.4%45th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.0%26th-highest | 38.1%130th-highest |
On 3rd down Middle Tennessee converts 35.9% (107th) against a Liberty defense allowing 32.1% (11th).
On 3rd down Liberty converts 48.1% (19th) against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 39.6% (58th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Middle Tennessee | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Derek Mason | Jamey Chadwell |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 11–22 | 33–14 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 38–77 | 72–36 |
| Offensive coordinator | Anthony Scelfo | Newland Isaac |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Stewart | Skylor Magee |
Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Middle Tennessee won 0 and Liberty 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | Liberty 37, Middle Tennessee 17 Liberty won | ||
| Oct 17, 2023 | Middle Tennessee 35, Liberty 42 Liberty won | ||
| Oct 9, 2021 | Middle Tennessee 13, Liberty 41 Liberty won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team stats
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 42, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 51 (Nov 7)
- Kennesaw State Owls 44, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 28 (Oct 28)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23 (Oct 20)
Liberty Flames
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