Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026
FRESOffense2026 regular season to dateTXST
FRESDefenseTXSTFRESRecent formTXSTFRESHome and roadseason to dateTXSTFRESLast 10 gamesTXSTRest & travelrest and travel
FRESRest & travelTXSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Matchup preview
Fresno State (5-4) visits Texas State (4-4) on Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET.
Fresno State has the 48th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 41st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas State has the 17th-ranked offense and the 116th-ranked defense. When Fresno State has the ball, a 48th-ranked offense (+0.106 EPA per play) meets a 116th-ranked defense (+0.173 allowed); when Texas State has it, a 17th-ranked offense (+0.202) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.013 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Fresno State offense is at 43.8% (103rd) and the Texas State offense at 51.5% (18th). Fresno State scores 26.8 points per game (63rd) and allows 20.6 (28th); Texas State scores 35.5 (15th) and allows 33.4 (118th).
Fresno State is 5-4 and 6-3 against the spread; its last game was a 17-10 loss to Utah State. Texas State is 5-4 and 5-4 against the spread; its last game was a 42-21 win over Oregon State.
Texas State is a 9.5-point favorite at home against Fresno State. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 59.5, up from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Fresno State +290, Texas State -375) prices Fresno State at 25% and Texas State at 75%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Fresno State +9.5 (-105)
Fresno State +9.5 (-105)
Texas State -355 75%
Texas State -375 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 12
- Fresno State +9.5+106Novig
- Texas State -9.5-110theScore Bet
- Over 59.5-104Novig
- Under 59.5-102Novig
- Fresno State+317Novig
- Texas State-335Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts251
- Completion %62.2%121st
- Passing yards1,85799th
- Yards per attempt7.4117th
- TD–INT11–2
- Rushing yards422147th
- Season line87 carries, 422 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards64744th
- Season line46 catches, 647 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles6968th
- Attempts252
- Completion %68.3%26th
- Passing yards2,14753rd
- Yards per attempt8.542nd
- TD–INT19–6
- Rushing yards1,1186th
- Season line157 carries, 1118 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards51593rd
- Season line48 catches, 515 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles62129th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFresno State offense vs Texas State defense | 39.1%120th | 46.2%119th |
| Early-down success rateTexas State offense vs Fresno State defense | 42.3%57th | 45.1%39th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFresno State offense vs Texas State defense | 38.2%89th | 41.2%70th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas State offense vs Fresno State defense | 36.4%35th | 55.3%3rd |
| Explosive play rateFresno State offense vs Texas State defense | 7.6%38th | 6.4%61st |
| Explosive play rateTexas State offense vs Fresno State defense | 6.6%64th | 8.7%17th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.8%69th-highest | 43.4%121st-highest |
On 3rd down Fresno State converts 38.2% (89th) against a Texas State defense allowing 41.2% (70th).
On 3rd down Texas State converts 55.3% (3rd) against a Fresno State defense allowing 36.4% (35th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt Entz | G. J. Kinne |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–8 | 28–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 14–8 | 28–20 |
| Offensive coordinator | Josh Davis | Landon Keopple |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Benedetto | Will Windham |
Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Fresno State Bulldogs
- Fresno State Bulldogs team stats
- Fresno State Bulldogs 10, Utah State Aggies 17 (Nov 7)
- Oregon State Beavers 22, Fresno State Bulldogs 38 (Oct 31)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 23, San Diego State Aztecs 26 (Oct 17)
Texas State Bobcats
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