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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

California Golden Bears vs Virginia Cavaliers Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

California Golden Bears

2-6

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

Virginia Cavaliers

3-5

Quarterback Beau Pribula

Saturday, November 14 · 3:30 PM ET

CALOffense2026 regular season to dateUVA

121st−0.091

EPA/play

+0.05172nd

125th41.3%

Success %

49.3%35th

125th18.5

PPG

21.898th

CALDefenseUVA

107th+0.150

EPA/play allowed

+0.11993rd

77th47.4%

Success % allowed

47.3%74th

122nd34.6

Opp PPG

25.666th

CALRecent formUVA

L@ UNLV 31-39Wvs Virginia Tech 25-20Lvs Wake Forest 7-41L@ SMU 20-59L@ NC State 10-31

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Florida State 7-38Wvs Syracuse 28-25L@ SMU 13-23Lvs Duke 16-19L@ Wake Forest 7-51

3-6

Record

4-5

2-7

ATS

—

3-6

Over–under

—

CALHome and roadseason to dateUVA

2-3

Home record

4-2

1-3

Road record

0-3

1-4

Home ATS

—

1-3

Road ATS

—

1-4

Home O/U

—

2-2

Road O/U

—

CALLast 10 gamesUVA

Game by game

3-6

Last 9

4-5

-87

Net points

+25

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

CALRest & travelUVA

14 days

Days of rest

14 days

2,360 mi3,799 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

+3 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Scott Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

California (2-6) visits Virginia (3-5) on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET.

California has the 121st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 107th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Virginia has the 72nd-ranked offense and the 93rd-ranked defense. When California has the ball, a 121st-ranked offense (−0.091 EPA per play) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.119 allowed); when Virginia has it, a 72nd-ranked offense (+0.051) meets a 107th-ranked defense (+0.150 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the California offense is at 41.3% (125th) and the Virginia offense at 49.3% (35th). California scores 18.5 points per game (125th) and allows 34.6 (122nd); Virginia scores 21.8 (98th) and allows 25.6 (66th).

California is 3-6 and 2-7 against the spread; its last game was a 31-10 loss to NC State. Virginia is 4-5; its last game was a 51-7 loss to Wake Forest.

Virginia is a 10.5-point favorite at home against California. The spread opened at Virginia -12.5. The total is 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (California +325, Virginia -425) prices California at 23% and Virginia at 77%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 2

OpenVirginia -12.5 (-110)
California +12.5 (-110)

NowVirginia -10.5 (-107)
California +10.5 (-112)

Totaldown 1

Open47.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now46.5 (o -112 / u -108)

Moneyline

OpenCalifornia +382 20%
Virginia -507 80%

NowCalifornia +325 23%
Virginia -425 77%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

California +10.5-108Bally Bet
Virginia -10.5+104Novig
Over 46.5-110FanDuel
Under 46.5+100Hard Rock
California+344Novig
Virginia-365ProphetX

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

California

QB · Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

Attempts264
Completion %67.4%38th
Passing yards1,751117th
Yards per attempt6.6190th
TD–INT11–6

Leading rusher (RB) · Adam Mohammed

Rushing yards363195th
Season line82 carries, 363 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Chase Hendricks

Receiving yards56570th
Season line61 catches, 565 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · AJ Tuitele

Tackles52246th

Virginia

QB · Beau Pribula

Attempts212
Completion %65.6%63rd
Passing yards1,587149th
Yards per attempt7.5108th
TD–INT14–3

Leading rusher (RB) · Jekail Middlebrook

Rushing yards513104th
Season line105 carries, 513 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Da'Shawn Martin

Receiving yards366218th
Season line26 catches, 366 yds, 6 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Maddox Marcellus

Tackles44387th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	California	Virginia
Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia defense	39.2%119th	43.7%85th
Early-down success rateVirginia offense vs California defense	42.8%67th	47.6%13th
3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia defense	35.8%108th	40.0%60th
3rd-down conversion rateVirginia offense vs California defense	42.9%91st	26.7%136th
Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs Virginia defense	5.2%125th	8.0%104th
Explosive play rateVirginia offense vs California defense	10.4%135th	5.4%119th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	62.8%3rd-highest	44.2%119th-highest

On 3rd down California converts 35.8% (108th) against a Virginia defense allowing 40.0% (60th).

On 3rd down Virginia converts 26.7% (136th) against a California defense allowing 42.9% (91st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	California	Virginia
Head coach	Tosh Lupoi	Tony Elliott
Tenureat this school	1st season	5th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	3–6	26–31
Career recordas an FBS head coach	3–6	26–31
Offensive coordinator	Pat McCann	Desmond Kitchings
Defensive coordinator	Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings	John Rudzinski

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: California won 0 and Virginia 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Nov 1, 2025	Virginia 31, California 21 Virginia won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams