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NCAAF · November 14, 2026

Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs Preview & Odds — November 14, 2026

Kansas State Wildcats

3-5

Quarterback Dillon Duff

TCU Horned Frogs

3-5

Quarterback Jaden Craig

Saturday, November 14 · 2:00 PM ET

KSUOffense2026 regular season to dateTCU

83rd+0.020

EPA/play

+0.00692nd

62nd47.1%

Success %

44.6%94th

66th26.4

PPG

18.9122nd

KSUDefenseTCU

91st+0.109

EPA/play allowed

−0.07220th

66th46.7%

Success % allowed

41.6%14th

95th29.8

Opp PPG

16.914th

KSURecent formTCU

Lvs Houston 16-35Wvs Kansas 35-24L@ Arizona State 17-28L@ Colorado 24-27Lvs Oklahoma State 28-66

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs BYU 10-17W@ Baylor 17-6Lvs West Virginia 20-24Wvs Kansas 22-16L@ Arizona 28-29

4-5

Record

3-5

3-5-1

ATS

—

6-3

Over–under

—

KSUHome and roadseason to dateTCU

4-2

Home record

2-3

0-3

Road record

1-2

3-3

Home ATS

—

0-2-1

Road ATS

—

4-2

Home O/U

—

2-1

Road O/U

—

KSULast 10 gamesTCU

Game by game

4-5

Last 9

4-5

+41

Net points

+72

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

KSURest & travelTCU

7 days

Days of rest

8 days

451 mi725 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Amon G. Carter Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Matchup preview

Kansas State (3-5) visits TCU (3-5) on Saturday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET.

Kansas State has the 83rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 91st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, TCU has the 92nd-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When Kansas State has the ball, a 83rd-ranked offense (+0.020 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (−0.072 allowed); when TCU has it, a 92nd-ranked offense (+0.006) meets a 91st-ranked defense (+0.109 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kansas State offense is at 47.1% (62nd) and the TCU offense at 44.6% (94th). Kansas State scores 26.4 points per game (66th) and allows 29.8 (95th); TCU scores 18.9 (122nd) and allows 16.9 (14th).

Kansas State is 4-5 and 3-5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 66-28 loss to Oklahoma State. TCU is 3-5; its last game was a 29-28 loss to Arizona.

TCU is a 10.5-point favorite at home against Kansas State. The spread opened at TCU -9.5. The total is 45.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Kansas State +310, TCU -410) prices Kansas State at 23% and TCU at 77%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenTCU -9.5 (-110)
Kansas State +9.5 (-110)

NowTCU -10.5 (-109)
Kansas State +10.5 (-111)

Totaldown 1

Open46.5 (o -112 / u -110)

Now45.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Moneyline

OpenKansas State +285 25%
TCU -385 75%

NowKansas State +310 23%
TCU -410 77%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 12

Kansas State +10.5-106Novig
TCU -10.5+100Novig
Over 45.5+105ProphetX
Under 45.5-114Bally Bet
Kansas State+344Novig
TCU-376Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Kansas State

QB · Dillon Duff

Attempts16
Completion %56.2%
Passing yards86
Yards per attempt5.4
TD–INT1–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Rodney Fields Jr.

Rushing yards57471st
Season line113 carries, 574 yds, 6 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jaron Tibbs

Receiving yards421162nd
Season line45 catches, 421 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Logan Bartley

Tackles59156th

TCU

QB · Jaden Craig

Attempts310
Completion %65.5%64th
Passing yards2,43928th
Yards per attempt7.979th
TD–INT12–7

Leading rusher (RB) · Jeremy Payne

Rushing yards429143rd
Season line88 carries, 429 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (TE) · Kari Ashley

Receiving yards65543rd
Season line52 catches, 655 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Hudson Hooper

Tackles62129th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Kansas State	TCU
Early-down success rateKansas State offense vs TCU defense	42.9%68th	38.3%16th
Early-down success rateTCU offense vs Kansas State defense	43.7%86th	40.9%98th
3rd-down conversion rateKansas State offense vs TCU defense	47.7%22nd	36.6%39th
3rd-down conversion rateTCU offense vs Kansas State defense	40.7%67th	44.7%34th
Explosive play rateKansas State offense vs TCU defense	7.7%37th	5.5%27th
Explosive play rateTCU offense vs Kansas State defense	9.1%129th	6.8%72nd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	50.1%74th-highest	57.4%15th-highest

On 3rd down Kansas State converts 47.7% (22nd) against a TCU defense allowing 36.6% (39th).

On 3rd down TCU converts 44.7% (34th) against a Kansas State defense allowing 40.7% (67th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Kansas State	TCU
Head coach	Collin Klein	Sonny Dykes
Tenureat this school	1st season	5th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	4–5	40–22
Career recordas an FBS head coach	4–5	111–85
Offensive coordinator	Sean Gleeson	Vacant / Gordon Sammis
Defensive coordinator	Jordan Peterson	Andy Avalos

Staff list as of November 10, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Kansas State won 4 and TCU 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 11, 2025	TCU 28, Kansas State 41 Kansas State won
Oct 21, 2023	TCU 3, Kansas State 41 Kansas State won
Dec 3, 2022 neutral	Kansas State 31, TCU 28 Kansas State won
Oct 22, 2022	Kansas State 28, TCU 38 TCU won
Oct 30, 2021	TCU 12, Kansas State 31 Kansas State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams