Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats Final — October 17, 2026
KUOffense2026 regular season to dateKSU
KUDefenseKSUKULast 10 gamesKSURest & travelrest and travel
KURest & travelKSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Kansas (1-3) visited Kansas State (2-2) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Kansas has the 118th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 42nd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Kansas State has the 54th-ranked offense and the 101st-ranked defense. When Kansas has the ball, a 118th-ranked offense (−0.092 EPA per play) meets a 101st-ranked defense (+0.152 allowed); when Kansas State has it, a 54th-ranked offense (+0.090) meets a 42nd-ranked defense (−0.015 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kansas offense is at 39.9% (128th) and the Kansas State offense at 50.7% (28th). Kansas scores 29.2 points per game (50th) and allows 25.8 (68th); Kansas State scores 26.8 (65th) and allows 23.2 (52nd).
Kansas State is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 35-16 loss to Houston.
Kansas State closed as a 3-point favorite at home against Kansas. The spread opened at Kansas State -8.5. The total closed at 55.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kansas +128, Kansas State -152) prices Kansas at 42% and Kansas State at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35
Kansas State Wildcats won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas State Wildcats -3): Kansas State Wildcats covered.
- Combined score 59 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- Kansas State Wildcats closed at -152 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 15 points toward Kansas Jayhawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Kansas Jayhawks 42%, Kansas State Wildcats 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:26 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 2nd & 10 at KSU 37No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 59 yards gain to the KAN04, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. #2 A.Johnson injured on the playKansas State Wildcats 58% → 69% (+11 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 13:17 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 1st & 4 at KU 4Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:17 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)Kansas Jayhawks 31% → 42% (+11 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:54 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 4th & 1 at KU 1Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the KAN01 (#99 E.Smalls), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal lin…Kansas Jayhawks 27% → 39% (+13 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:02 — Kansas Jayhawks ball, 2nd & 5 at KSU 18Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass intercepted by #10 L.Bartley at KSTATE00 QB hurried by #1 W.Gregory #10 L.Bartley return 16 yards to the KSTATE16 (#44 C.Bruhn)Kansas State Wildcats 36% → 62% (+26 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:42 — Kansas State Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at KSU 16Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 64 yards gain to the KAN20 (#27 T.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNKansas State Wildcats 62% → 78% (+16 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Kansas State Wildcats won after falling as low as 24% (Q1 2:33).
Game DNA
| Kansas | Points added | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.4 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | +8.2 |
| +8.3 | Explosive plays6 plays · 7 plays | +23.2 |
| -3.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.5 |
| +0.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.4 |
| +1.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.3 |
| +0.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 8 | -6.5 |
| -2.1 | All plays | +21.7 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.9 points to Kansas State Wildcats. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Kansas State Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Kansas Jayhawks before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kansas +8.5 (-110)
Kansas +3 (-111)
Kansas State -325 73%
Kansas State -152 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts141
- Completion %53.9%224th
- Passing yards1,143111th
- Yards per attempt8.175th
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards318108th
- Season line59 carries, 318 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards34584th
- Season line18 catches, 345 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles33224th
- Attempts163
- Completion %63.8%96th
- Passing yards1,092125th
- Yards per attempt6.7180th
- TD–INT9–3
- Rushing yards33095th
- Season line39 carries, 330 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards201275th
- Season line20 catches, 201 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles27411th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateKansas offense vs Kansas State defense | 38.3%122nd | 45.3%93rd |
| Early-down success rateKansas State offense vs Kansas defense | 35.7%7th | 42.8%75th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKansas offense vs Kansas State defense | 34.6%101st | 42.6%89th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKansas State offense vs Kansas defense | 36.5%47th | 57.4%4th |
| Explosive play rateKansas offense vs Kansas State defense | 9.6%10th | 7.5%96th |
| Explosive play rateKansas State offense vs Kansas defense | 6.2%53rd | 8.2%34th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.8%69th-highest | 53.1%48th-highest |
On 3rd down Kansas converts 34.6% (101st) against a Kansas State defense allowing 42.6% (89th).
On 3rd down Kansas State converts 57.4% (4th) against a Kansas defense allowing 36.5% (47th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lance Leipold | Collin Klein |
| Tenureat this school | 6th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 29–38 | 3–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 66–71 | 3–2 |
| Offensive coordinator | Andy Kotelnicki / Matt Lubick | Sean Gleeson |
| Defensive coordinator | D.K. McDonald | Jordan Peterson |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Kansas won 0 and Kansas State 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Kansas State 42, Kansas 17 Kansas State won | ||
| Oct 26, 2024 | Kansas 27, Kansas State 29 Kansas State won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Kansas State 31, Kansas 27 Kansas State won | ||
| Nov 26, 2022 | Kansas 27, Kansas State 47 Kansas State won | ||
| Nov 6, 2021 | Kansas State 35, Kansas 10 Kansas State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Kansas Jayhawks
- Kansas Jayhawks team stats
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (Oct 31)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Utah Utes 41 (Oct 10)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
Kansas State Wildcats
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
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